WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

I know there is a pressure correlation between Atlantic and WPAC storms. I think the WPAC tends to be a little lower. What would this storm have translated to on the Atlantic side.

the recon from 2008 and 2010 indicated otherwise

While recon in the past shows a totally different story, there were sub-900mb storms didn't make it to 140kt intensity

Many intense typhoons got flight level winds nowhere near to match with their pressure so I guess they must had sampling issues back then

From JTWC annual summary：
TIP: sfc 130kt, fltlvl 125kt
VANESSA: sfc 130kt, fltlvl 122kt
FORREST: sfc: 130kt, fltlvl 110kt

use flight level winds from those days with extreme caution. The Doppler used for the data was subject to attenuation in heavy rain, yielding very low wind speeds. Being discussed on the T Storms list now. Questions are being raised about the traditional WPAC p/w relationship

[stormkite]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

This is my thinking of peak intensity...

Haiyan with the PINHOLE eye
-155 knots sustained
-880 mb

Haiyan with the Larger eye nearing landfall
-185 knots sustained
-851 mb

I was thinking the opposite because the smaller eye would have a tighter wind field to circulate around the eye. I am thinking the figure skater analogy as moving faster as she brings her arms closer to her body. Just my amateur opinion though.

I tend to agree with Blp the phenomena is almost exclusively with major typhoons /hurricanes with the inner eye wall of less than 5 miles in diameter the wind speed would be far more intense in the convective chimney at that time.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheShrimper]

Pretty much like in Andrew west of Krome Ave.

[RL3AO]

use flight level winds from those days with extreme caution. The Doppler used for the data was subject to attenuation in heavy rain, yielding very low wind speeds. Being discussed on the T Storms list now. Questions are being raised about the traditional WPAC p/w relationship

That makes sense. It just doesn't seem logical for a 160kt typhoon to be 20mb lower on average then a hurricane. Maybe the Pacific has a lower background pressure on average, but clearly tropical depressions in the Pacific don't start at 982mb.

[HurricaneBill]

Just saw the latest "official" death toll from the Philippines is 1833

No new deaths in eastern Visayas... really? What about the bodies easily found by the media

Well, to be fair, the death toll sometimes does get overstated in the immediate aftermath.

Examples:
The 2013 Moore tornado (At one point the toll was reported to be as high as 91. The final toll was 23.)

2005 Hurricane Katrina: I remember they were saying the death toll could be as high as 10,000.

[Alyono]

Just saw the latest "official" death toll from the Philippines is 1833

No new deaths in eastern Visayas... really? What about the bodies easily found by the media

Well, to be fair, the death toll sometimes does get overstated in the immediate aftermath.

Examples:
The 2013 Moore tornado (At one point the toll was reported to be as high as 91. The final toll was 23.)

2005 Hurricane Katrina: I remember they were saying the death toll could be as high as 10,000.

big difference between Katrina and here. In Katrina, it was clear that rescurers simply werent finding bodies. This time, the bodies line the streets.

Even more suspicious are that only 80 are listed as missing and only 2500 injured. Really, only a very small percentage in Tecloban alone were affected? Much less the rest of the country even the areas they didnt reach? What about all of those buried under the debris?

What's really suspicous is only about 250 dead in eastern Semar where this hit at full force

[beoumont]

Pretty much like in Andrew west of Krome Ave.

As one added piece of data in figuring the gradient in ONE hurricane, Andrew, and if this can be used as an indicator:

The best I can measure from a radar image, Andrew's eye was 14 miles across at landfall; and the pressure in the eye was 922 mb. (Just maybe 2-3 mb higher at the edge of the eye.).

NHC employee, Stan Goldenberg's house, located 1.5 miles north of the edge of the eye recorded 932 mbs. (SW 176 st, a mile west of US 1.

I measured 942 mb (with a barometer supplied by the NHC), and was 2.5 miles north of the edge of the eye (SW 160 st. 1/2 mile west US 1).

Quite a pressure gradient.

Krome Ave, referenced by TheShrimper is SW 177 Ave, running N-S.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just saw the latest "official" death toll from the Philippines is 1833

No new deaths in eastern Visayas... really? What about the bodies easily found by the media

1,833 ARE identified. It is not easy to identify the names of ALL those who died and those who are still missing. Leyte was not too unprepared nor very prepared, it was at the middle due to the fact they did not expect the storm surge but they expected the winds and rains. I agree with the president's estimate. Probably they are FALSELY identified as dead, or the signals/cell sites are down so they can't be contacted [same case with my grandfather] pr they are just missing but return. Or also it is because others just fled away [to Cebu, Manila, etc.] because of the risks.

I'm guessing about 5,000 or less. I prefer to stay optimistic.

[Alyono]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/philippine ... -1.2424744

2275 and of course there are far more areas and many debris fields that need to be searched. Also far more bodies that need to be collected as per the media

[dexterlabio]

10,000 deaths will say something about the government's disaster response. Of course they will say the number is lower. The focus of search and retrieval is in Tacloban, which is just one of many cities and municipalities in Leyte. And there are more towns to check in Samar. I actually find the president's statement as bold. Even bolder when he managed to put the blame to these people because they didn't prepare. Well, they did the best they could. Of course there are always some who won't heed the call for evacuation, but the local government of Tacloban sheltered these people into coliseums and gymnasiums. Who would've thought a 15-ft storm surge will go as far inland and destroy everything, literally? Why start a blaming game when he should be the first person among others to comfort them?

[Alyono]

I have non clue why Wikipedia wont report up to date numbers. They are now no longer allowing media reports of confirmed totals.

That place is as muchof a joke as the max 2500 IMO

http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?secti ... id=9321327

2344, not 1866

[galaxy401]

Chaos erupting in the Philippines. Eight deaths from a stampede.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/n ... ampede-aid

[cycloneye]

This is todays interesting discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about how the warm waters played a roll in the intensification process.

A remarkable warming of the sub-surface Pacific waters east of the Philippines in recent decades, due to a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean currents that began in the early 1990s, could be responsible for the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Hurricanes are heat engines, which means they take heat energy out of the ocean, and convert it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. It's well-known that tropical cyclones need surface water temperatures of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to maintain themselves, and that the warmer the water, and the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm can get. Deep warm water is important, since as a tropical cyclone tracks over the ocean, it stirs up cooler water from the depths, potentially reducing the intensity of the storm. When both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita exploded into Category 5 hurricanes as they crossed over a warm eddy in the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of deep, warm water, the concept of the total heat energy available to fuel a hurricane--the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)--became one that gained wide recognition. The Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines has the largest area of deep, warm water of anywhere on Earth, and these waters have historically fueled the highest incidence of Category 5 storms of anywhere on the planet. Super Typhoon Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F.) However, the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) above average, judging by an analysis of October average ocean temperatures from the Japan Meteorological Agency (Figure 1.) As the typhoon stirred this unusually warm water to the surface, the storm was able to feed off the heat, allowing Haiyan to intensify into one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed.

Why was there such unusually warm sub-surface water?

The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). The strong trade winds have pushed a large amount of water up against the east coast of the Philippines in the past twenty years, resulting in a rate of sea level rise of 10 mm per year--more than triple the global average of 3.1 mm/yr (Figure 2.) This extra sea level rise contributed to the storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Sea level rise data from Legaspi in the Eastern Philippines shows a rise of about 305 mm (12 inches) since 1949. For comparison, global average sea level rose 7.5" (190 mm) since 1901. Part of the rise along the eastern Philippine coast is from tectonic processes--the subsidence of the Philippine plate under the Eurasian plate--but most of it is due to the stronger trade winds piling up warm water along the coast, and the fact that warmer waters expand, raising sea level.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... #comment_7

[euro6208]

those warm waters and very high TCHP east of the philippines has been there for many many many years, fueling the most powerful storms on the planet.

it took a historic storm like haiyan for this to finally get attention...

[hurricanes1234]

Have they reanalysed Haiyan yet? If so, did they make any manipulations to its strength (wind speed/pressure)?

[euro6208]

Have they reanalysed Haiyan yet? If so, did they make any manipulations to its strength (wind speed/pressure)?

A complete best track report from JTWC will be released next year probrably sooner...maybe someone can correct me. I'm not sure...

[Alyono]

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/526303/sam ... rnment-aid

434 dead in Bassey and the gov't has not acknowledged them.

This is why it is proven beyond all doubt that the Philippine prez 2500 estimate was a joke. He needs to include those unidentified persons who have been buried in mass graves with the number of dead

[beoumont]

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/526303/samar-town-suffers-434-dead-but-receives-no-government-aid

434 dead in Bassey and the gov't has not acknowledged them.

This is why it is proven beyond all doubt that the Philippine prez 2500 estimate was a joke. He needs to include those unidentified persons who have been buried in mass graves with the number of dead

You never know about these early estimates: as there can be motives at opposite ends of the scale, and there can just be lack of knowldedge.

On one end of the scale, gov't officials over-estimate in order to prompt quicker response of the world in sending in aid. (As with the mayor of N. Orleans stating 10,000 during Katrina.)

At the other end of the scale was the "image" many in Yucatan projected from the time Gilbert hit in 1988, and for many years afterward. People in the gov't and tourist industry claimed that "The damage reported in the newspapers was exaggerated. There was very little damage here from Hurricane Gilbert." The aim was to not "scare away" future tourists from the area during subsequent years during hurricane season.

Time will tell; probably.

[beoumont]

One storm chaser has reported the lowest pressure he recorded in downtown Tacloban was 961 mb.

It is not clear how far from the edge of the eye Tacloban is located; or how far north of the actual maximum winds Tacloban is located. Based on the radar picture at the time I do not know if the edge of the eye is where the red wall-cloud signature ends, or if the edge of the eye is where the lighter rain of the blue echoes ends.

Also, it is not clear, to me at least, what the Radius of Maximum Winds of Haiyan was at landfall.

There is a rule of thumb to figure the lowest pressure inside the eye, if you know what the maximum winds were and what the radius of maximum winds was. Of course, one needs to know where the highest winds occurred and have a reference barometric pressure at that point. Maybe that will be determined later when studies are conducted on the ground.

Anyway, the rule of thumb is below. This is a quote from Chris Landsea, Science Advisor at the NHC:

"One rule of thumb we use is that if a pressure measurement is inside the radius of maximum wind, then one can estimate the central pressure by subtracting about 1 mb per each 10 kt of wind at the time of the measurement for a marine exposure (~2 mb per each 10 kt of wind for over land exposure). So if the observer was still near the RMW, then the central pressure may have been substantially deeper. (This depends also on how well calibrated the barometer is and whether it is properly reduced to sea level pressure.)"

Maybe someone on this forum wants to plug in some estimated numbers, and make some calculations to come up with an estimate of the actual minimum pressure when the typhoon's eye was south of Tacloban.

Of course, if and when some pressure readings come in from ground zero, that will be much better.

[Alyono]

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/526303/samar-town-suffers-434-dead-but-receives-no-government-aid

434 dead in Bassey and the gov't has not acknowledged them.

This is why it is proven beyond all doubt that the Philippine prez 2500 estimate was a joke. He needs to include those unidentified persons who have been buried in mass graves with the number of dead

You never know about these early estimates: as there can be motives at opposite ends of the scale, and there can just be lack of knowldedge.

On one end of the scale, gov't officials over-estimate in order to prompt quicker response of the world in sending in aid. (As with the mayor of N. Orleans stating 10,000 during Katrina.)

At the other end of the scale was the "image" many in Yucatan projected from the time Gilbert hit in 1988, and for many years afterward. People in the gov't and tourist industry claimed that "The damage reported in the newspapers was exaggerated. There was very little damage here from Hurricane Gilbert." The aim was to not "scare away" future tourists from the area during subsequent years during hurricane season.

Time will tell; probably.

they tried that stunt as well during Wilma

It lasted all of 5 seconds as the news media was showing Cancun is ruins live