New Euro = Out to Sea

[MWatkins]

The 12 ECMRF is out and it has Isabel east of the NC coast at 168 hours...this is a big change from yesterdays run and the other 3 runs before it and represents some good news.

But it is just one run and presents a vastly different upper pattern than it did yesterday. I don't want to dismiss as a bad run...but will have to wait for another run...that's a huge jump in successive runs.

MW

[cycloneye]

But it is moving slowly 9 mph so that has to be taken under consideration because many things can happen with a not fast major cane.

[WeatherEmperor]

If this is an indication of future runs that take it away from the east coast then I hope and hope and hope that every single run from now on indicates Isabel turning away.

[HurricaneQueen]

Talk about a change from minute to minute. I was just looking at the last Euro run and come back to this! Think I'll take a time out for a while if I can pull myself away from this darned computer!

[OtherHD]

Not really out to sea...

From the runs that I saw, Isabel comes dangerously close to the northern Mid Atlantic coast. After that, we don't know, because the model doesn't go out that far.

[TampaFl]

Agree MW, that is a dramatic change in 24hrs from the last nights run. keep us updated.


Robert

[floydchaser]

Mike (or others), where did you get access the new run this early? All the websites I've checked still have the old run.

[~SirCane]

Who knows? Things can change VERY quickly as we have seen over the years. One day, a model may show it turning Northward, and the next day, turning Westward.

Wasn't Andrew supposed to turn?

[Stormsfury]

Day 10 3 day average won't be until a little later, but I don't buy this scenario setting up ... OtherHD is right ... that's an awfully strong ridge to the north of hurricane at Day 7.

SF

[rob8303]

THE EURO DOING THAT IS HUGELY GOOD NEWS. THE ECWMF HAS EXCELLENT METHODS.

[floydchaser]

I'm always wary of big model changes from one run. 12z GFS and 12Z Euro are significantly different with Isabel from previous runs (I noted that the 18z GFS run is now farther to the west again). They may well be latching onto something, but I am also worried about possible bad observational data that made it into the 12z guidance. Someone mentioned that the 18z tropical suite is based on 12z initializations...is this true? I strongly think there was some error introduced into the 18z suite, and if its based on the 12z inits, then this guidance may be flawed. Will be interested in seeing 00z runs tonight to see if they remain more or less consistent.

[Rainband]

If it verifies, very good news ..but..it's still wait and see!!!

[Vortex]

I really was holding out in feeling to overconfident for those of us in S. Fl. given the consistency of the ECMWF the last several days and taking this storm towards Fl.. Tonight, is very good news IMO. Yes, its 1 run but to me to at this point it's the most important run of any model thus far. Now, tommorrow night's run will speak volumes if "the trend" remains the same. I caution myself though as today has seem many inconsitencies in all the runs and quite frankly I have much lower confidence overall in the models today versus yesterday.

[wow]

Maybe the TPC jinxed it when they gave it a compliment the other evening.

[WeatherNole]

Mike (or others), where did you get access the new run this early? All the websites I've checked still have the old run.

You can get the latest from the ECMWF homesite. Here's the link to the North American output.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/deterministic/world/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!12!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!/

The resolution on these maps is fairly low. It's much easier to decipher what's going on once Unisys http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/index.html or College of DuPage http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ get their displays up.

Mike

[ameriwx2003]

Wow.. that sure is a huge jump from Yesterday and would be good news if this does pan out. Lets see if tomorrows run shows the same thing;):)

[njbeachwx]

I need recon data before i lose my minds

[floydchaser]

Just saw the 18z GFDL run, and I'm even more concerned about possible bad observational data from the 12z guidance. 18z gfdl is much farther south, west, and doesn't have as pronounced a northward curve by 120 hours. I really think there may have been an over-influence of some sort from Henri in the 12z runs. UKMET, though, did not seem affected. In any event, its possible that the 12z runs are completely erroneous, including the EURO. On the other hand, its also possible they picked up on something correctly that the previous guidance was not....only time will tell.

[njbeachwx]

Ok, wait on second, if I am reading the map correctly, which i prob not, I see it making a bee line for.....ME! THe map for the 18th looks like it is going directly into the "Greetings from Asbury Park" Sign!

[Stormsfury]

Just saw the 18z GFDL run, and I'm even more concerned about possible bad observational data from the 12z guidance. 18z gfdl is much farther south, west, and doesn't have as pronounced a northward curve by 120 hours. I really think there may have been an over-influence of some sort from Henri in the 12z runs. UKMET, though, did not seem affected. In any event, its possible that the 12z runs are completely erroneous, including the EURO. On the other hand, its also possible they picked up on something correctly that the previous guidance was not....only time will tell.

Bingo. There is some over-influence. There are still way too many uncertainties in the MR .. The midwest trough depicted by the 18z GFS (which I looked at in the CHS WFO with MET Pete Mohler) has a weakness between ridges and the trough swinging through negatively tilts. Isabel still may end up being too far south and not get caught up. Or it could. Or it gets trapped in between and meandors aimlessly north. The model guidance flip-flopping like it did today only complicates everything and there's absolutely no way to make a call with any certainty.

SF