EPAC: INVEST 98E

[supercane4867]

[supercane4867]

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ARE THEN FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.

[cycloneye]

20%/20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[hurricanes1234]

I don't think this will form anymore.

[supercane4867]

18Z GFS

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 30%. Will we see Tico?!

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

I just saw a while ago that shear will soon increase to >30 knots. Not very promising or welcoming for development.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

A BROAD BUT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

30%/30%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DEVELOP OVER THE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe we might see a short-lived tropical depression out of this?

[hurricanes1234]

I've found my answer - no, this will probably stop here. It doesn't even look good now.

[brunota2003]

I can't believe something is actually out there that is being looked at!

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%/20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE DISPLACING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
STRONGER TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
MUCH LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY.

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep982013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201311161832
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[zeehag]

wasnt at all exciting. just some lots of water and a lil wind.....some thunder. eh

[hurricanes1234]

wasnt at all exciting. just some lots of water and a lil wind.....some thunder. eh

The problem was the one we know only too well - shear. Had it not been for that shear, it would have probably developed, since there was abundant moisture. Great news for Mexico!