ATL: MELISSA - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: MELISSA - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:04 am

WHXX01 KWBC 171246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC SUN NOV 17 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131117 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131117 1200 131118 0000 131118 1200 131119 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 52.5W 25.5N 52.2W 28.1N 52.1W 31.1N 53.3W
BAMD 23.5N 52.5W 26.2N 51.7W 29.8N 53.2W 31.9N 55.9W
BAMM 23.5N 52.5W 25.6N 51.9W 28.8N 52.5W 31.3N 54.5W
LBAR 23.5N 52.5W 25.1N 52.0W 27.8N 52.1W 30.8N 52.9W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 57KTS 70KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 57KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131119 1200 131120 1200 131121 1200 131122 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.1N 55.3W 35.4N 50.8W 40.4N 36.0W 45.0N 27.2W
BAMD 32.2N 57.5W 34.2N 50.5W 41.6N 35.4W 45.6N 24.1W
BAMM 32.4N 56.4W 35.0N 50.1W 41.5N 35.1W 46.1N 25.9W
LBAR 33.9N 52.8W 42.2N 45.0W 45.3N 33.1W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 78KTS 87KTS 84KTS 71KTS
DSHP 78KTS 87KTS 84KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 52.5W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 52.3W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 52.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 200NM


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hurricanes1234
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:46 pm

84 and 87 knots?!!! Could this near major status and become our strongest system of 2013 and one of, if not, THE latest hurricane of this strength in this basin?! :eek:
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Hurricane Alexis
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#3 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:11 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:84 and 87 knots?!!! Could this near major status and become our strongest system of 2013 and one of, if not, THE latest hurricane of this strength in this basin?! :eek:


If SHIPS were right we should've had about 4 majors this year.
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Alyono
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#4 Postby Alyono » Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:19 pm

ships does not exactly work well with these types of systems
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#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:33 pm

:uarrow: SHIPS has done poorly all season, especially with the Cape Verde storms like Chantal and Dorian.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:04 pm

I still think it has a shot at hurricane strength. But you're right, probably just 75 mph if anything.
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