Texas Fall 2013

[Portastorm]

Did some research, looked at a few analogs and one that popped up over the 6-10 day period was 12-4-88. This looks almost identical to what the euro and models are showing. Only thing different is next weeks system is showing COLDER air coming down, but the 0C line looks identical in where it meanders just west of I-35 north towards the red river region. Take a look at them. Very similar. So, lets just SAY the models verify with how cold they will be, i think the 0C line for the models is very conservative. I dont know what other variables occurred in 1988 but after seeing these similarities, i'll go with my current theory that there will be more frozen precip than the models are saying now. You guys are more than welcome to correct or critique my thoughts lol

This is an educated GUESS, I'm not a proffessional.


Analog http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1988/us1209.php

This is the most ridiculous forecast I have ever seen!

No, seriously ... good research there. I don't have any reason to question your forecast and think it is certainly within the realm of possibility. What I don't think will happen, however, is snow falling in central Texas or probably even north Texas ... think if wintry precip does happen, it'll be more of the freezing rain/sleet variety in these areas given that this cold airmass will be shallow at best. West Texas would stand the best chances of snowfall.

Perhaps more importantly ... when is the last November when we even discussed such a possibility?! Seems like it's been a number of years.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ridiculous no doubt! Haha, were not even to Thanksgiving yet. The only time i remember a really cold Turkey day with snow was in '93. I agree with your frz rain idea though. Alot of it likely would be since the air is extremely shallow. We will see. Still lots of variable, and its still a bit away. If it holds this idea tomorrow, then i will be really giddy over this storm. So far the consistency from the models has been fairly strong over the last few days though.

So glad winter is here

[Ntxw]

The euro is still very on for wintry precip for pretty much the NW and northern half of Texas, quite impressive actually (foot in some places). I think the reason it has so much is it may be mixing some of it with sleet. This will be interesting, I don't think the GFS has a handle on the cold air mass just yet and ecmwf is in it's kill mid range zone, big highs 1050+ don't come and go quietly. Once the upper low passes overhead that's prime time and it may not be the only threat before this month is out, Rex Block.

93 was mentioned and I think it's a good month to compare, the atmosphere is in a very Nino like state in the north Pacific

It's either going to rain a cold rain in the 30s or be a big wintry mess

[vbhoutex]

Ryan Maue also said the snowfall forecasts are likely conservative and i agree. When that moisture starts streaming in from the PAC it will be packed with moisture. Why can the cold air make it a bit further east for us in SE TX? 1052 low and we cant get to freezing? What the heck!

LOL!! THE CURSE of SE TX!! We feel your pain!!! WE WANT SNOW!!WE WANT SNOW!!! WE WANT SNOW!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Where is Wxman 57? Anyone checked to see if he hitched a ride with a flock of geese southward now that winter of his discontent might come in with a bang?

[weatherdude1108]

Just checked the Weather Channel extended forecast for Cedar Park. Shows partial sun and SNOWFLAKES on Tuesday the 26th. High of 49. Interesting!

[Ntxw]

Check out the Arctic air sitting in NW Canada, it's vast and cold. These big highs are going to slice chunks of it down and question is will the SW storm work with it in tandem. Shallow low level cold air mass for sure with higher heights than you'd expect. HPC has anywhere from 30% chance and up of freezing rain in the 3 day outlook for western half of Texas at least.

[Portastorm]

Just checked the Weather Channel extended forecast for Cedar Park. Shows partial sun and SNOWFLAKES on Tuesday the 26th. High of 49. Interesting!

weatherdude ... no, no, no ... we don't use Weather Channel forecasts around here! C'mon man.

[iorange55]

Last time I used the Weather Channel forecast I was standing outside in 90 degree heat with a parka on.

[ravyrn]

Last time I used the Weather Channel forecast I was standing outside in 90 degree heat with a parka on.

LMAO

[weatherdude1108]

Just checked the Weather Channel extended forecast for Cedar Park. Shows partial sun and SNOWFLAKES on Tuesday the 26th. High of 49. Interesting!

weatherdude ... no, no, no ... we don't use Weather Channel forecasts around here! C'mon man.

I know. Thought I would use the outlyer.

[weatherdude1108]

Last time I used the Weather Channel forecast I was standing outside in 90 degree heat with a parka on.

LMAO

[ravyrn]

Looks like our cold air is starting to cross over the Canadian border in NW Montana

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If you check the 500 MB this cold air i believe was cross-polar air. Streamed in from a region off the map but came down 'north' of Alaska. Tough to give proper cardinal direction map due to 2D map lol

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble Means Temperature Anomaly from Sunday Morning to Monday Morning...Look at all the dark purple covering the state of Texas!

[Jarodm12]

Anybody have high quality images of what the euro is saying?

[vbhoutex]

today's email from Jeff Lindner:
Most is about SE TX, but it does touch on other areas of TX.

Weak cool front pushed across the area yesterday allowing developing NE winds and cooler temperatures…at least down from the record highs on Sunday.

Cool air mass will be in place today and then begin to modify on Wednesday as winds turn back around to the southeast. Will see a gradual warming trend starting on Wednesday ahead of a powerful polar front that will arrive into the region on Friday. Increasing Gulf moisture will produce increasing rain chances starting on Wednesday and more likely on Thursday. This will mainly be showers moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico on the warm air advection regime with embedded weak disturbances in the flow aloft helping to enhance lift at times.

Large 1050mb high pressure cell is progged by all of the forecast models to drop southward out of Canada and into the northern plains late this week. This will send a surge of very cold air southward down the front range of the Rockies and deep into TX by Friday. The mid and upper level flow is out of the SW during this period, but the cold dense nature of this air mass should dam it against the eastern slopes of the Rockies and send a cold shallow front across the TX by Friday. Expect a strong southward push of the cold air and it is very possible that the front goes through Del Rio and Victoria before Houston. Temperatures will tumble with the frontal passage with highs achieved prior to the front and temperatures falling quickly into the 40’s and 50’s behind the boundary with strong north winds. Frontal timing is still somewhat in question with Friday afternoon into the evening hours looking most likely…this will obviously have a big impact on high temperatures on Friday as the later timing would allow highs to reach well into the 70’s and possibly 80’s before the bottom falls out. Not overly excited about rain chances with the front as the main dynamics will be north of the region. Model guidance continues to be fairly bullish on at least light rainfall and in fact much of the rain may fall behind the boundary in the cold air as a period of overrunning of the shallow air mass looks likely into Saturday. Not sure the area will ever clear out much behind this front…although Sunday would be the best chance of some sun and that looks short lived.

Cold polar high builds into the central plains over the weekend with cold air mass firmly in place over TX. Upper level storm system develops in the southern branch of the jet stream over the SW US by the weekend and begins to slowly push eastward. Models yesterday were bringing this system into the state late in the weekend and into early next week, but latest runs have slowed down the eastward progress. I am tempted to followed the slower progression as this tends to be common with such SW US upper level storm systems. Should the faster solution look more likely a very cold rain would develop over much of the area on Sunday with the potential for some wintry mix of precipitation over W and NW TX as the surface air mass would not have time to modify much. For now will go with the warmer and slower solution with rain returning by late Monday. Could see a coastal trough develop along the lower or middle coast at this point keeping NE winds and cold air locked in place at the surface or a rapidly northward moving warm front sweeping the cold air out. Both appear to be viable solutions for early next week.

[Ntxw]

If you check the 500 MB this cold air i believe was cross-polar air. Streamed in from a region off the map but came down 'north' of Alaska. Tough to give proper cardinal direction map due to 2D map lol

The air mass is being pumped from the Arctic. It is the ridging in the Northeast Pacific that is bringing it down. The warm waters in the gulf of Alaska has kept 500mb ridging in place and sent high after high this month and has been going on since March. I'm sure there is some cross polar flow connection but this is solely on the Pacific forcing it down as the AO is positive which means cold should be locked up. The North Pacific (EPO) is defying the +AO and -PDO.



It has been a very long time since we have seen persistent warmth in the Gulf of Alaska during the cold months. At least a decade I'd say, if not since 1993. The past few years we have seen Aleutian ridging retrograde to the Asian side thus those big arctic highs move the wrong way or stay put, but so far the warm waters is helping it progress towards NA.

[NDG]

I hate to agree on the saying that ridging in the gulf of Alaska is due to the "warm" waters, to me it makes more sense to say that the "warmer waters" is due to the ridging in the gulf of Alaska, besides we are talking SSTs in the gulf of Alaska are currently only in the 40s and 50s, JMO.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I hate to agree on the saying that ridging in the gulf of Alaska is due to the "warm" waters, to me it makes more sense to say that the "warmer waters" is due to the ridging in the gulf of Alaska, besides we are talking SSTs in the gulf of Alaska are currently only in the 40s and 50s, JMO.

Definitely, it's the chicken or the egg came first question. It's a feed back, regardless which started it one helps the other continue until something breaks the cycle. And it's about anomalies. It's cold yes, but it's relative to average and relative to other areas. The milder eastern north Pacific is counter acted by the cooler northwest Pacific and that's where the feedback begins, one magnets lower pressures and thus pumps more ridging down stream.