Texas Fall 2013

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Ntxw
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#541 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:59 am

No surprise the front is way ahead of schedule and will likely pass North Texas this evening rather than tomorrow. It's 10 below in Montana. FW mentions heavy sleet and winter storm watches possible for parts of the area. If the NAM and SREF trends continue certainly warrants which supports a deeper and further south ejection of 5h low. We haven't seen a good sleet storm in a while so lets see how this goes. North and parts of Central TX will be at the cross hairs of the freezing line and heaviest precip.


***
THE BIGGER CONCERN COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE
UPPER LOW OUT WEST FINALLY MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WHILE MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BELOW
800MB...DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL
ALLOW PARCELS ABOVE 800MB TO LIFT FREELY AND PRECIPITATE. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID WET BULB COOLING IN THE DRY LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HELP DEEPEN THE NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER OF AIR. WHILE THERE
IS STILL PROGGED TO BE A WARM NOSE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...THIS
BECOMES A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SLEET WITH DEEP COLD TEMPERATURES
BELOW THE WARM NOSE. SOME OF THE SLEET COULD BE HEAVY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WOULD BE
GENERALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN A WINTER STORM
OUTLOOK. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE A RAIN/SLEET MIX IN FOR SUNDAY AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN AS COLD AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...A WINTER STORM WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PART
OF NORTH TEXAS FOR SUNDAY.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#542 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 8:06 am

Made a couple meteograms, one for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area and one for Houston. Looks quite miserable in both places this weekend and early next week:

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#543 Postby Kelarie » Thu Nov 21, 2013 8:17 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 AM CST THU NOV 21 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159-212200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-
423 AM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY. WE
EXPECT TWO ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SECOND ROUND POTENTIALLY CAUSING MORE IMPACTS.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD...COMANCHE LINE.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY WARM...ONLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHICH MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. SLEET MAY BE HEAVY AND ACCUMULATE NORTHWEST OF PARIS...TO DALLAS
TO LAMPASAS LINE WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE EVEN
FARTHER NORTHWEST...OR NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD...COMANCHE LINE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COLDER. THE
CHANCE OF SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING...AND AS MORE WEATHER DATA IS ANALYZED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE FORECAST MAY
CHANGE. AT THIS TIME RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#544 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 8:44 am

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I don't think I'll be doing any biking this weekend...


No, but I will be running. :) Woo Hoo


I'll be running, too. From the car to my office. I have my electric blanket ready to go.
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#545 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 21, 2013 8:52 am

For those of us who remember Thanksgiving 1993, I see this system setting up to be about the same. Timing on the front keeps getting earlier and earlier and the Temps keep going lower and lower as this system come more into play. That freeze line that's just to the west of Fort Worth will move further to the south over the next 72 hours and you will see the D/FW area getting into the wintery mix Saturday afternoon and again Sunday thru Monday morning. :cold:
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#546 Postby Lonestar Light » Thu Nov 21, 2013 8:55 am

Can someone post or give opinions on amount of precip for Deep South Texas this weekend? I have a hunt down by freer this weekend and rain chances are high but from what I am looking at, the totals are low. Looks like storms on Friday but but then what? Drizzle? Really light rain? Thoughts?

I don't mind light rain but steady rain on ranch roads = huge mess and not worth the fuel and expenses of going down.

Thanks all
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#547 Postby gboudx » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:23 am

Here's Jeff Lindner's update. Maybe some of the info will help you Lonestar Light. Welcome to the board!

Major changes coming in the next 24 hours as a powerful cold front sweeps across the state.

Today-early Friday:

Warm and moist onshore flow off the Gulf will provide an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms today-Friday. Temperatures will be in the humid 70’s for most of the entire period. Waves of showers will move inland off the Gulf of Mexico and northward across the area as moisture deepens ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. This will be the last warm day for a while!

Starting to push dewpoints over the near shore water temperatures so expect areas of dense sea fog to begin to form today and especially tonight as onshore winds weaken and persist until the front crosses the area on Friday.

Friday-Saturday:

Powerful polar cold front roars across the state bringing much colder weather. Dense shallow air mass should arrive across our NW counties near sunrise Friday and be off the coast by early afternoon. High temperatures will occur prior to the frontal passage in the upper 70’s and then plummet into the 40’s and 50’s behind the front. SE winds of 10mph will shift to the north and increase to 20-30mph behind the front. Strong frontal lifting and a moist air mass will support widespread shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary. Shallow nature of the dense cold air will result in continued warm Gulf air mass being lifted up and over the frontal surface across the entire into Saturday with widespread periods of light to moderate rainfall continuing into Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will hold nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s with gusty N winds. Rainfall amounts Friday-Saturday will average .5 to 1.5 inches.

Saturday night-Sunday night:

Winter Storm heads for TX

Strong upper level storm system over the SW US begins to move eastward toward TX with a firm cold air mass in place. Expect dry but cloudy conditions across SE TX most of Sunday as the cold dome deepens. Strong upper level system approaching from the west will result in the forcing of surface low pressure off the lower TX coast which will begin to swing moisture back over the surface cold dome. Expect to see increasing light rainfall by Sunday evening west and north of SE TX. Highs Sunday will hold in the 40’s.

While forecast soundings show a warm nose, it appears that enough dry air in the mid to surface layer may result in enough cooling to onset precipitation as sleet from near Fort Worth along and west of I-35 to NW of San Antonio. Surface temperatures in this region will be just above freezing, but could drop to freezing allowing some accumulation of sleet/ice Sunday night into Monday morning west of I-35. This area is being monitored for the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch.

Locally, looking at forecast soundings at both CLL and UTS for Monday morning suggest dewpoints in the upper 20’s at the surface and surface temperatures in the mid 30’s. This would suggest a brief window for some evaporative cooling from College Station to Lufkin at the onset of light rain Sunday night. Such setups in the past have resulted in P-type of sleet or rain/sleet mix at the onset of the precipitation and this is a possibility. With surface temperatures expected to be above freezing and the ground still very warm do not expect any accumulation over our area.

Monday-Tuesday:

Winter storm pushes across TX with accumulating ice/sleet possible over W/NW/N TX and portions of the Hill Country. Southward surface low will move NE along the TX coast resulting in widespread cold rain and windy conditions. Expect rain to develop from SW to NE early Monday as warm Gulf air is lifted over the cold air locked in at the surface. Surface winds will increase out of the ENE on Monday and tide levels will begin to rise along the coast as winds increase. Surface low should progress across our coastal waters early Tuesday resulting in peak winds late Monday night and greatest rainfall potential Monday afternoon and evening. Highs Monday will again be locked in the 40’s. Surface low moving east of the area on Tuesday will likely end rain chances and shift winds around to the NW keeping the cold air in place. Highs Tuesday may stay in the 40’s also…but could reach the lower 50’s depending on if any sun breaks through late in the day.

Thanksgiving Outlook:

TX should lie between storm systems, but cold air will remain in place across the state. Lows in the 30’s on Thursday with highs in the 50’s under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. GFS continues to show a shallow moist layer trapped in the frontal inversion both Wednesday and Thursday which may keep low clouds locked in place and highs colder than the 50’s. Looks like the cold finally begins to modify in about a week or the Friday after Thanksgiving.
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Re:

#548 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:29 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:For those of us who remember Thanksgiving 1993, I see this system setting up to be about the same. Timing on the front keeps getting earlier and earlier and the Temps keep going lower and lower as this system come more into play. That freeze line that's just to the west of Fort Worth will move further to the south over the next 72 hours and you will see the D/FW area getting into the wintery mix Saturday afternoon and again Sunday thru Monday morning. :cold:


Remember it well, I have the hand plotted/analyzed maps right here in my file cabinet. I remember watching the "Leon Lett game" (Cowboys) as they played in the sleet and snow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUYVifM0vCQ

I just pulled out my folder for that Thanksgiving week of 1993. The 500mb flow was nearly identical. Big cut-off low in the southwest and Arctic air plunging down the plains to the Gulf. GFS tried to push the front back as a warm front and had it in Oklahoma but that was wrong - it was in the Gulf.
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#549 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:45 am

I concur 93 is a very good analog. The front is making it's way through Kansas as we speak.

If the 12z Nam is right snow may get involved with passage of upper low and if it's deep. Another potential analog is mid November 1976, DFW recorded 5 inches of snow and sleet that storm.
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Re: Re:

#550 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:03 am

wxman57 wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:For those of us who remember Thanksgiving 1993, I see this system setting up to be about the same. Timing on the front keeps getting earlier and earlier and the Temps keep going lower and lower as this system come more into play. That freeze line that's just to the west of Fort Worth will move further to the south over the next 72 hours and you will see the D/FW area getting into the wintery mix Saturday afternoon and again Sunday thru Monday morning. :cold:


Remember it well, I have the hand plotted/analyzed maps right here in my file cabinet. I remember watching the "Leon Lett game" (Cowboys) as they played in the sleet and snow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUYVifM0vCQ

I just pulled out my folder for that Thanksgiving week of 1993. The 500mb flow was nearly identical. Big cut-off low in the southwest and Arctic air plunging down the plains to the Gulf. GFS tried to push the front back as a warm front and had it in Oklahoma but that was wrong - it was in the Gulf.


Oh wait. You just had to pull that game up. Thanks a lot sir. Uggh....LOL
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#551 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:09 am

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I don't think I'll be doing any biking this weekend...


No, but I will be running. :) Woo Hoo


I'll be running, too. From the car to my office. I have my electric blanket ready to go.



After two to three years of summers with record heat and drought with little to no real winter, some of us are trying to feel sorry for you....

On the other hand, no we don't. It's our turn now. :froze:
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#552 Postby kmc8264 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:12 am

Any thoughts on SW Ok, I'm wondering about my school bus routes Friday morning.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#553 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:19 am

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I don't think I'll be doing any biking this weekend...


No, but I will be running. :) Woo Hoo


I'll be running, too. From the car to my office. I have my electric blanket ready to go.


Oh wait. You had the Summer of 2011. You had August of 2011. You were in hog heaven. Now, you get a little frosty. My goodness sir. LOL
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Re:

#554 Postby orangeblood » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:49 am

Ntxw wrote:I concur 93 is a very good analog. The front is making it's way through Kansas as we speak.

If the 12z Nam is right snow may get involved with passage of upper low and if it's deep. Another potential analog is mid November 1976, DFW recorded 5 inches of snow and sleet that storm.


I was trying to find good analog fits and really couldn't find one this early in the year. Not liking 1993 with a deep ULL sitting over the Northern Plains and HP along the spine of the Rockies (see below), while this is a ULL coming out of southern New Mexico and the HP sitting over the middle Mississippi Valley. To me, they look completely different

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us1125.php
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Re: Re:

#555 Postby downsouthman1 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:53 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I concur 93 is a very good analog. The front is making it's way through Kansas as we speak.

If the 12z Nam is right snow may get involved with passage of upper low and if it's deep. Another potential analog is mid November 1976, DFW recorded 5 inches of snow and sleet that storm.


I was trying to find good analog fits and really couldn't find one this early in the year. Not liking 1993 with a deep ULL sitting over the Northern Plains and HP along the spine of the Rockies (see below), while this is a ULL coming out of southern New Mexico and the HP sitting over the middle Mississippi Valley. To me, they look completely different

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us1125.php

It's gonna be virtually impossible to find an analog this early in the year that matches this setup. This is like a February setup.
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Re: Re:

#556 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:56 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I concur 93 is a very good analog. The front is making it's way through Kansas as we speak.

If the 12z Nam is right snow may get involved with passage of upper low and if it's deep. Another potential analog is mid November 1976, DFW recorded 5 inches of snow and sleet that storm.


I was trying to find good analog fits and really couldn't find one this early in the year. Not liking 1993 with a deep ULL sitting over the Northern Plains and HP along the spine of the Rockies (see below), while this is a ULL coming out of southern New Mexico and the HP sitting over the middle Mississippi Valley. To me, they look completely different

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us1125.php


I'm looking at the actual 72hr 500mb prog from 00Z Nov 22nd 1993 valid 00Z Nov 25th. It has a deep upper low over south-central Utah, which is very similar to the current 500mb prog valid Sunday evening (00Z Nov 25th again). The upper low on today's progs is just a little southwest of 1993, but the general flow pattern across the U.S. and Canada is nearly identical.
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Re: Re:

#557 Postby downsouthman1 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:01 am

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I concur 93 is a very good analog. The front is making it's way through Kansas as we speak.

If the 12z Nam is right snow may get involved with passage of upper low and if it's deep. Another potential analog is mid November 1976, DFW recorded 5 inches of snow and sleet that storm.


I was trying to find good analog fits and really couldn't find one this early in the year. Not liking 1993 with a deep ULL sitting over the Northern Plains and HP along the spine of the Rockies (see below), while this is a ULL coming out of southern New Mexico and the HP sitting over the middle Mississippi Valley. To me, they look completely different

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us1125.php


I'm looking at the actual 72hr 500mb prog from 00Z Nov 22nd 1993 valid 00Z Nov 25th. It has a deep upper low over south-central Utah, which is very similar to the current 500mb prog valid Sunday evening (00Z Nov 25th again). The upper low on today's progs is just a little southwest of 1993, but the general flow pattern across the U.S. and Canada is nearly identical.

I find it amazing how yesterday the talk was about freezing rain & today it's now sleet. I understand how it works, but i'm a little amazed at how just a 6-9 hour early polar front arrival time makes such a big difference as far as the depth of the cold air layer is. Also, the depth will probably expand lower in the atmosphere at the onset of precip from the lift produced by the ULL. Simply an amazing setup & it's only mid-Nov.

One thought I don't like is, in my experience, when we have early cold snaps, a lot of times the rest of the winter is warmer.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#558 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:11 am

I scanned my 72hr prog from 00Z Nov. 22, 1993 and compared it to lasts nights prog for the same date - 00Z Nov 25th of this year. On my old 72hr prog is where the Arctic front was at 00Z on the 25th. Note what I called the chart at the top. ;-)

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#559 Postby downsouthman1 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:15 am

wxman57 wrote:I scanned my 72hr prog from 00Z Nov. 22, 1993 and compared it to lasts nights prog for the same date - 00Z Nov 25th of this year. On my old 72hr prog is where the Arctic front was at 00Z on the 25th. Note what I called the chart at the top. ;-)

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/1993.gif

Nice name. All Cowboys fans who saw that game will remember what Leon Lett did that day on the sleet covering the Texas Stadium field.
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#560 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:33 am

I posted a link earlier in this thread of dec 4th 1988 i believe. Look at that analog. Very very similar to this weekend. Check it out.
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