Texas Fall 2013

[downsouthman1]

Good try, gboudx, here's a corrected version for Austin:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ausgfs12znov21.gif

Looks the same. I must be too much of a newb to see the differences.

[joshskeety]

Thanks, is there a way to move this thread there then? Does he go by Meteorological seasons or true seasons?

Thanks,

Josh

[gboudx]

I think after Thanksgiving we'll move here to the Winter Forum. There's already a Texas 2013 Winter thread that would be used.

I don't know if you can move your discussions simply, or could just copy/paste. I know other posters would appreciate the input.

[wxman57]

Good try, gboudx, here's a corrected version for Austin:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ausgfs12znov21.gif

Looks the same. I must be too much of a newb to see the differences.

Corrected dates/times along the bottom and chart title to say Austin vs. Houston.

[cycloneye]

Thanks, is there a way to move this thread there then? Does he go by Meteorological seasons or true seasons?

Thanks,

Josh

Moved your thread to this Texas fall thread as the discussions are going on here until the 21rst of December when officially Winter begins.

[gboudx]

Front is through Amarillo and they're at 32.

[joshskeety]

Front is actually just crossing Childress.. About 2 hours faster than predicted. If this holds true it would be in DFW by 6-7PM..

NAM saw this, GFS didn't.. So far...

[joshskeety]

Just crossed Childress, Texas, Temp drop 8 degrees in 5 minutes, winds out of the North at 33MPH

[downsouthman1]

Good try, gboudx, here's a corrected version for Austin:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ausgfs12znov21.gif

Looks the same. I must be too much of a newb to see the differences.

Corrected dates/times along the bottom and chart title to say Austin vs. Houston.

Thanks for clarifying.

[Portastorm]

Front is actually just crossing Childress.. About 2 hours faster than predicted. If this holds true it would be in DFW by 6-7PM..

NAM saw this, GFS didn't.. So far...

If I had a dollar for every time the GFS underestimated an early season Arctic airmass, I'd be able to buy y'all a nice steak dinner. This shouldn't surprise anyone around here.

Time to keep an eye on the 500mb vorticity progs from the models and compare from run to run.

[joshskeety]

Front is actually just crossing Childress.. About 2 hours faster than predicted. If this holds true it would be in DFW by 6-7PM..

NAM saw this, GFS didn't.. So far...

If I had a dollar for every time the GFS underestimated an early season Arctic airmass, I'd be able to buy y'all a nice steak dinner. This shouldn't surprise anyone around here.

Time to keep an eye on the 500mb vorticity progs from the models and compare from run to run.

Very true.. Which goes back to the 12z NAM run being much colder and much more Moisture.. Seems quite odd that the NWS has basically disregarded it totally considering its the 2nd run in a row on the NAM that showed that..

If the Skews show every below 0 in Weatherford, Texas from 42h onward on the NAM shouldn't that at least reflect something in the discussion? Talking out loud now.. lol

[weatherguy425]

A good, 'almost', real time source to track cold front progress across the Panhandle, and high plains of west Texas...

http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/Tech/1-output/current.html

[CaptinCrunch]

The 12z GFS seems to suggest more towards the current forecast of the NWS which is more towards the sleet/ice for the western counties of the metroplex and maybe some sleet towards the end of the event late in the evening Sunday for the whole metroplex.. The GFS skew's are most definitely warmer and show a warm nose all the way up to the Oklahoma border where I stopped checking..

Once again, 2 models showing vastly different things, but so far according to the DFW meteo's they are sticking with their forecast so obviously they are hedging their bets with the GFS over the NAM..

The NAM seems to suggest even sleet/snow as far south and east as Tyler and Paris Texas.. Not sure if I can buy that just yet for myself.. Either way, Im going hunting this weekend regardless of the weather.. I'm kind of hoping for a break in the weather Saturday into Sunday so the birds will fly..

The guys over at the NWS here in FTW (at least the overnight and morning crew) tend to favor the GFS models while the afternoon crew will side more with the NAM. I favor the NAM over the GFS since the GFS is just historically bad with these type of events.

[joshskeety]

Front is between Norman and Lawton Oklahoma for those tracking.. Should cross Lawton within the next 10-15 minutes..

[Portastorm]

I'm thinking forecasters ignore the NAM at their own peril at the moment. As we've discussed here in the last 24 hours, the NAM is handling this event quite well so far. As is always the case with these setups, the main questions are:

1) What track does the 500mb low take across Texas? Remember: those areas along and slightly north of the path usually are the "winners."

2) Does a coastal low form and how strong does it become? Remember: the stronger the coastal low, the more potential precip it robs from the upper level low

3) Does the 500mb low stay relatively intact as it crosses the state or does it shear out?

4) Vertical profiles and "warm noses" and how much is the cold airmass eroded from top down?

Right now, IMO, areas from the western Hill Country through just north of Austin/Round Rock/Georgetown up to Tyler will probably see a variety of precip types in the next 72 hours.

[gpsnowman]

Sweet. Nov 21 and we are already tracking an arctic front with frozen precip going to fall somewhere. I have a feeling this thread will explode over the next few days. Can't wait to follow it with everyone on this board. Portastorm is correct. Always seems the weather services play catch up with winter weather here in Texas. It is slowly looking better and better. Hope the trends continue.

[joshskeety]

The 12z GFS seems to suggest more towards the current forecast of the NWS which is more towards the sleet/ice for the western counties of the metroplex and maybe some sleet towards the end of the event late in the evening Sunday for the whole metroplex.. The GFS skew's are most definitely warmer and show a warm nose all the way up to the Oklahoma border where I stopped checking..

Once again, 2 models showing vastly different things, but so far according to the DFW meteo's they are sticking with their forecast so obviously they are hedging their bets with the GFS over the NAM..

The NAM seems to suggest even sleet/snow as far south and east as Tyler and Paris Texas.. Not sure if I can buy that just yet for myself.. Either way, Im going hunting this weekend regardless of the weather.. I'm kind of hoping for a break in the weather Saturday into Sunday so the birds will fly..

The guys over at the NWS here in FTW (at least the overnight and morning crew) tend to favor the GFS models while the afternoon crew will side more with the NAM. I favor the NAM over the GFS since the GFS is just historically bad with these type of events.

Not that I think this will be an all snow event (I want to at least see the 18z NAM before I start spouting it anyway) it just burns me up when they should know how bad the GFS is with Blue northers to begin with, especially this early in the season.. But when I saw the 12z NAM this morning I immediately went into the mode of thinking there is just no way they can ignore it or at least discuss it.. Instead the discussion at 11:00 AM was.. "Forecast is in line from last run" BS... Then at 12:01.. uhhh Front is coming in faster than expected.. Always seems to start that way...

[Portastorm]

All I want to know is when does Mr. Cavanaugh go on shift?

That's the forecast discussion I want to read right now.

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow:

I'm thinking forecasters ignore the NAM at their own peril at the moment. As we've discussed here in the last 24 hours, the NAM is handling this event quite well so far. As is always the case with these setups, the main questions are:

1) What track does the 500mb low take across Texas? Remember: those areas along and slightly north of the path usually are the "winners."

2) Does a coastal low form and how strong does it become? Remember: the stronger the coastal low, the more potential precip it robs from the upper level low

3) Does the 500mb low stay relatively intact as it crosses the state or does it shear out?

4) Vertical profiles and "warm noses" and how much is the cold airmass eroded from top down?

Right now, IMO, areas from the western Hill Country through just north of Austin/Round Rock/Georgetown up to Tyler will probably see a variety of precip types in the next 72 hours.

1. not sure
2. No costal Low will form
3. Stays intact for the most part
4. This will be the question to answer, and right now it's a any ones guess.

[downsouthman1]

Sweet. Nov 21 and we are already tracking an arctic front with frozen precip going to fall somewhere. I have a feeling this thread will explode over the next few days. Can't wait to follow it with everyone on this board. Portastorm is correct. Always seems the weather services play catch up with winter weather here in Texas. It is slowly looking better and better. Hope the trends continue.

I think when people watch their local news tonight & hear the Mets they've spent years watching finally confirming a winter event somewhere nearby, they will start to pay attention to this scenario. Also, most people assume that as it's still mid-November, there's truly nothing to worry about anyway, & those of us like me that are talking about this are mistaken. We will see in a few days who's right.

@Portastorm, I love reading Cavanaugh's Area Forecast Discussions.