Texas Fall 2013

[Longhornmaniac8]

Holy cow and add another 6-10 inches on the backside of this if you life in northwest Texas if this model is right.. No way I believe 2 feet of pure snow in North Texas in mid november.. No friggen way..

Just a friendly reminder that the NAM has been, and continues to be, the outlier of the model solutions. If you go over to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center page and look over the discussions, you'll see that. The expect forecasters believe it ejects the upper low way too fast. Among other things.

That's certainly true, but don't the NAM and Euro handle this type of air mass better than the GFS does?

[Portastorm]

Can you give me input on what the weather situation looks like for Texarkana? Thanks!

Time frame, please?

Saturday through Monday. Sorry for missing that.

Based on what I see from the NWS and Accuweather ... looks like highs in the 40s on Saturday with rain ending. Cold, blustery. Partly cloudy early on Sunday -- highs in the 40s -- becoming cloudy with rain chances starting up Sunday night and much better on Monday. Seems like a threat of frozen precip may come close Sunday eve/early Mon AM.

I'm surprised aggiecutter is not around. He's in your area and is always good with a forecast or two for Texarkana.

[joshskeety]

http://imageshack.us/f/36/6bbv.jpg/


0.o

This is what it is suggesting...

[Jarodm12]

Hey Portastorm how do think Waco will fare winter weather wise, in the saturday to monday timeframe?

[Portastorm]

Holy cow and add another 6-10 inches on the backside of this if you life in northwest Texas if this model is right.. No way I believe 2 feet of pure snow in North Texas in mid november.. No friggen way..

Just a friendly reminder that the NAM has been, and continues to be, the outlier of the model solutions. If you go over to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center page and look over the discussions, you'll see that. The expect forecasters believe it ejects the upper low way too fast. Among other things.

That's certainly true, but don't the NAM and Euro handle this type of air mass better than the GFS does?

I don't know that the NAM handles anything all that particularly well ... but it seems to be doing well with the timing of the cold airmass on this event. Personally I prefer the Euro and UKMet over the GFS for winter weather.

Keep in mind that the issue is not about airmasses or how cold will it be ... it's about does the 500mb low eject intact and stay intact and what will its track be. That will dictate whether we see some kind of significant wintry precip or not for parts of Texas.

[Kelarie]

Thanks Portastorm!!

[srainhoutx]

Careful of those NAM output clown maps. I'd stick to the SREF mean and the higher output is likely in the form of sleet...

[TwisterFanatic]

Front is already way ahead of schedule(usually happens with these strong arctic fronts), GFS had it going through OKC after midnight tonight, it's going through right now.

Temp was 72 in OKC 3 hrs ago, it's 39 now.

[joshskeety]

Holy cow and add another 6-10 inches on the backside of this if you life in northwest Texas if this model is right.. No way I believe 2 feet of pure snow in North Texas in mid november.. No friggen way..

Just a friendly reminder that the NAM has been, and continues to be, the outlier of the model solutions. If you go over to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center page and look over the discussions, you'll see that. The expect forecasters believe it ejects the upper low way too fast. Among other things.

But wait a sec.. Didnt we just get done discussing the fact that the NAM has a much better handle on these situations than the GFS does? 3rd run in a row of this on the NAM and we will call it the outlier?

Look, Im not sitting here and telling you the Metroplex is about to have a historic blizzard snowstorm of all time in mid november.. What I am suggesting though is after 3 runs in a row, it has to be looked into and not discounted.. The ECMWF last night although warmer showed the upper low merging also, maybe not as quick, but it did have it..

[Portastorm]

Careful of those NAM output clown maps. I'd stick to the SREF mean and the higher output is likely in the form of sleet...

Yeah ... what he says!

For those of you who are relatively new ... srainhoutx is a longtime member here and a wise weather owl.

[Portastorm]

Hey Portastorm how do think Waco will fare winter weather wise, in the saturday to monday timeframe?

I think Waco has a real shot at some rain/sleet mix late Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like temps will warm enough in the air column, such as what NWSFO DFW wrote this morning in their AFD, and that the threat by late Sunday would abate some.

When you victorious Baylor fans are coming back from Stillwater ... you best be real careful on the roads!

[WacoWx]

Hey Portastorm how do think Waco will fare winter weather wise, in the saturday to monday timeframe?

Waco will get nothing and like it!

[Portastorm]

Holy cow and add another 6-10 inches on the backside of this if you life in northwest Texas if this model is right.. No way I believe 2 feet of pure snow in North Texas in mid november.. No friggen way..

Just a friendly reminder that the NAM has been, and continues to be, the outlier of the model solutions. If you go over to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center page and look over the discussions, you'll see that. The expect forecasters believe it ejects the upper low way too fast. Among other things.

But wait a sec.. Didnt we just get done discussing the fact that the NAM has a much better handle on these situations than the GFS does? 3rd run in a row of this on the NAM and we will call it the outlier?

Look, Im not sitting here and telling you the Metroplex is about to have a historic blizzard snowstorm of all time in mid november.. What I am suggesting though is after 3 runs in a row, it has to be looked into and not discounted.. The ECMWF last night although warmer showed the upper low merging also, maybe not as quick, but it did have it..

Hey ... I didn't say that the NAM generally handles these kinds of events better than the GFS. I would never say that. What I did say was that the NAM was performing well at the moment on the airmass predictions in terms of timing.

Just because a model run shows something similar three runs in a row doesn't mean it's right. If it has it wrong on that first run ... wrong is wrong, regardless of the consistency. I do think the 18z NAM depiction is kind of ridiculous. Sorry.

[Jarodm12]

i hope not down here visiting. id rather be back in old dfdubya. nam looks promising

[joshskeety]

Front has just hit Wichita Falls, Texas.. Way ahead of schedule..

[Jarodm12]

Front has just hit Wichita Falls, Texas.. Way ahead of schedule..

oh wow your right

[Tireman4]

Hey Portastorm how do think Waco will fare winter weather wise, in the saturday to monday timeframe?

Waco will get nothing and like it!

Wait, did that not happen so many times when you lived there. Then when you move to Dallas, poof...Waco gets winter precip.

[Portastorm]

Here ... nevermind what a goober like me has to say ... read something from a real expert. Forecaster Roth's "take" on things from the national winter weather desk for NOAA:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Thanks srainhoutx for the suggestion!

[WacoWx]

Hey Portastorm how do think Waco will fare winter weather wise, in the saturday to monday timeframe?

Waco will get nothing and like it!

Wait, did that not happen so many times when you lived there. Then when you move to Dallas, poof...Waco gets winter precip.

Why you gotta be bringin' up old sh%$?

[Tireman4]

Waco will get nothing and like it! [/quote]

Wait, did that not happen so many times when you lived there. Then when you move to Dallas, poof...Waco gets winter precip. [/quote]

Why you gotta be bringin' up old sh%$? [/quote]

He he he....