Texas Fall 2013

[Jarodm12]

winter storm watch's going up abilene tx

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
308 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CONCHO VALLEY...HEARTLAND AND HILL COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A SAN
ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-220900-
/O.NEW.KSJT.WS.A.0001.131122T1800Z-131125T1200Z/
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-HASKELL-
THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...
STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...
CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD
308 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO ICY ROADS. IN
ADDITION...SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE A
THREAT TO OUTSIDE PETS...LIVESTOCK AND EXPOSED PIPES.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

* ACCUMULATIONS: FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 INCH
OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Angelo issues Winter Storm Watch and NWS Midland/Odessa issues a Winter Weather Advisory.

[Tireman4]

That front is moving. I mean hauling...wow.....I am sure it will slow down, but when...at night?

[Portastorm]

EWX basically poo-poo'ing wintry precip chances in its CWA, basically saying slight chances of mixed precip during the weekend overnights. Seems reasonable to me. I think locales to the north and west of Austin will be the ones "in play" this weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE PANHANDLE. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT...SFC OBS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BY 20 DEGREES OR MORE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FROPA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND WILL REACH THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE NOON. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA...CALENDAR DAY "HIGH" TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S (UPPER 30S HILL COUNTRY). STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID-30S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SLEET
TO MIX-IN WITH THE COLD RAIN. NO SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE/CHANCES FOR RAIN/CLOUD COVER WILL OTHERWISE
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP CLOUDY
SKIES AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. THERE
IS A RENEWED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SLEET TO MIX-IN WITH THE
RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ARE AGAIN NOT EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL END LATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE
WEST LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...PROLONGED WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY AND
LASTING POTENTIALLY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ARCTIC
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH THE
COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. STRONGER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF
AN INCH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

TXZ021>044-220600-
/O.NEW.KLUB.WS.A.0003.131122T1200Z-131126T1200Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...TURKEY...CHILDRESS...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...
MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...PADUCAH...MORTON...LEVELLAND...
LUBBOCK...SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...
SPUR...GUTHRIE...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...
ODONNELL...POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
342 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...COLD AIR HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY DROPPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRIZZLE WILL START TO
DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL START TO DEVELOP. HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY POSSIBLY
INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING CONDITIONS RESULTING IN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES TOMORROW. HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN WILL
RESULT IN POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF AN INCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

JORDAN

[somethingfunny]

Don't see this very often.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY...

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SUB-
FREEZING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...WITH PERIODS OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN MAKING CONTACT WITH
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL INSTANTLY
FREEZE AND RESULT IN LIGHT ICING...MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143-220615-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZR.Y.0001.131122T1000Z-131123T1700Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-
EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...
GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO
350 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY.

* TIMING...4 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO .05 OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIGHT ICING TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LESS-TRAVELED SECONDARY
ROADS COULD SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.

[Tireman4]

I remember, awhile back Something, that for the DFW region, there were Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm and Winter Watch boxes all up. It was the craziest thing I had ever seen. All at one time.

[gpsnowman]

Ok. Dr. Phil is almost over. Time for the 4 o'clock news. Let's see what the local mets have to say.

[joshskeety]

Just issues Freezing rain adv for tomorrow night for western counties of DFW.. Although Abilene getting with the NAM now, FTW discussion update not in yet, I think they are crying right now..

[Jarodm12]

im looking for two forecast discussions niether have come out im on the edge of my seat

[downsouthman1]

Just issues Freezing rain adv for tomorrow night for western counties of DFW.. Although Abilene getting with the NAM now, FTW discussion update not in yet, I think they are crying right now..

They're not crying. They're figuring out the exact wording on how to say "NAM? What NAM?"

Or it already came out minutes ago but no one knows because the Servers are too busy processing all the F5 requests from people holding that key down on their keyboards.

[joshskeety]

Just issues Freezing rain adv for tomorrow night for western counties of DFW.. Although Abilene getting with the NAM now, FTW discussion update not in yet, I think they are crying right now..

They're not crying. They're figuring out the exact wording on how to say "NAM? What NAM?"

lol! That must mean that junky North African model.. hahaha

[ludosc]

ok quick question...

My sister is planning on driving from Colorado Springs to Arlington, TX on Saturday. Is that a good idea or should she try to come down a different day?

Thanks

[downsouthman1]

ok quick question...

My sister is planning on driving from Colorado Springs to Arlington, TX on Saturday. Is that a good idea or should she try to come down a different day?

Thanks

She will be driving through the beast if she comes anytime from now until Tuesday.

[ludosc]

ok quick question...

My sister is planning on driving from Colorado Springs to Arlington, TX on Saturday. Is that a good idea or should she try to come down a different day?

Thanks

She will be driving through the beast if she comes anytime from now until Tuesday.

I figured as much. Thanks.

[joshskeety]

ok quick question...

My sister is planning on driving from Colorado Springs to Arlington, TX on Saturday. Is that a good idea or should she try to come down a different day?

Thanks

Yea, traveling from there all the way to Arlington is going to be a horrible drive.. Ice/Sleet/Snow all the way through.. I would change plans myself, she could leave Sunday night and sit right behind the storm get here Monday morning and most likely be okay, but leaving Monday morning is probably her best bet...

[downsouthman1]

OK, so NWS KFWD did mention the NAM. Basically they said the GFS is leaning more towards the NAM but they didn't alter the forecast much for now but tomorrow will likely issue a WSWatch/Warning or WWA somewhere.

[joshskeety]

18z GFS trying to fall in line now with the 18z NAM, but its all over the place..

1.) Develops secondary low off the coast almost 24 hours AFTER all other models do
2.) Transfer of low happens so late almost no moisture anywhere, 1/2 of Texas gets dry slotted.
3.) Cuts off the cold air and hangs on to it (Always been a huge issue with the GFS doing this)..

Basically, its colder, its coming around, it was the big changer from the 12z run, but its still out to lunch from the other models at this point..

[WeatherNewbie]

Holy cow and add another 6-10 inches on the backside of this if you life in northwest Texas if this model is right.. No way I believe 2 feet of pure snow in North Texas in mid november.. No friggen way..

Just a friendly reminder that the NAM has been, and continues to be, the outlier of the model solutions. If you go over to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center page and look over the discussions, you'll see that. The expect forecasters believe it ejects the upper low way too fast. Among other things.

But wait a sec.. Didnt we just get done discussing the fact that the NAM has a much better handle on these situations than the GFS does? 3rd run in a row of this on the NAM and we will call it the outlier?

Look, Im not sitting here and telling you the Metroplex is about to have a historic blizzard snowstorm of all time in mid november.. What I am suggesting though is after 3 runs in a row, it has to be looked into and not discounted.. The ECMWF last night although warmer showed the upper low merging also, maybe not as quick, but it did have it..

Just because the NAM is forecasting one aspect of this better than the others (cold coming down), does not mean it has a better handle on another aspect (low ejecting across). It may very well end up being right on all of it, but you can't assume that right now.