Texas Fall 2013

[iorange55]

Well, I don't know enough about all the models to predict whats what, but I can tell you this.........I didn't get didley-squat for rain last night with the front. I was very disappointed that such cold air couldn't squeeze more rain out of that soupy warm airmass that was over us yesterday.

I believe one of the problems was the arctic air moving in so fast and getting underneath the line of storms. The storms were fairly impressive out west of us, but they weakened as they went overhead.

Anyway, it's been fun to see the evolution of this storm. We knew this would likely happen, and now it's starting to play out. We could have a nasty ice storm on our hands.

I was just saying last year how it had been awhile since we had a sleet storm.

[Ntxw]

You know with the JFK memorial thing going on this is just another big event in north Texas that brings in cold and winter precipitation in the cold months. Never fails! Makes you wonder what is in store for the Final Four in March .

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013/

WINTER HAS MADE ITS ARRIVAL IN IMPRESSIVE FASHION THIS MORNING AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS BLASTED THROUGH THE REGION SENDING
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING MORE THAN 30 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD AND GLOOMY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY.

AT 3AM THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR DEL RIO TO COLLEGE STATION TO TEXARKANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND A COUPLE OF
SPOTS HAVE REACHED FREEZING OVER THE LAST HOUR. BOWIE AND ABILENE
ARE BOTH REPORTING 32 DEGREES. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE SEE AND IF IT WILL FALL
INTO AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING. THAT POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. FREEZING RAIN OCCURS WHEN
LIQUID RAIN FALLS INTO AIR THAT IS BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE
AND QUICKLY TURNS TO ICE. IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED THOUGH
WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE THOUGH
WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE VERY WARM.

AN 8Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM DFW INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4000FT ABOVE THE GROUND WERE 59 DEGREES. THIS VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT MEANS THAT THE RAIN ITSELF WILL BE WARM WHEN IT HITS THE
GROUND. THE WARM RAIN CAN ACTUALLY WARM THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
THEREBY INHIBITING FREEZING. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
FOR PART OF THE MORNING TODAY...SO IMPACTS MAY NOT ACTUALLY BE
SEEN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NONETHELESS... TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
COOL SOME THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SOME LIGHT ICING CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA LATER TODAY. THIS ICING SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES.

WITH THE 850MB FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AND AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. POPS WILL
BE HIGH THROUGH TODAY...BUT ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S ALL DAY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TOMORROW...WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA...A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SEND
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS COLDER AIR
IS MUCH DEEPER AND WILL ACTUALLY DRY OUT THE AIR BELOW 800MB BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT IS ONGOING DURING
THIS TIME SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SO WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ABOVE 800MB TO WARRANT THE 20 POPS. AS WITH TODAY...ANY
SHOT AT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

BY LATE SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA
WILL EJECT EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. IT GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING ON SUNDAY BECAUSE THERE WILL
INITIALLY BE A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB. AS IT BEINGS TO
PRECIPITATE INTO THIS LAYER...IT SHOULD COOL TO WELL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SLEET STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A PERSISTENT WARM NOSE
IN THE 700 TO 800MB LAYER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SLEET
WITH SOME MELTING IN THIS LAYER...THEN REFREEZING BELOW IT. THE
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SUPPORT
FROM ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. BOTH THE 21/21Z AND 22/03Z SREF GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD SLEET
BEGINNING SUNDAY OUT WEST AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN
MANY AREAS AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX FOR
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP TYPE DURING
THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. IF THE WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE MORE STOUT...WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND ICE SCENARIO. EITHER WAY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE HIGH. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING MAY ALLOW
SLEET TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT
850MB WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST.

IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A COLD WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WINTER PRECIPITATION FORECASTS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY AS SMALL CHANGES
IN TEMPERATURE CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[joshskeety]

Good Morning all..

Well, looking at all the factors this morning, I am amazed at what is taking shape.. The NAM which so far has been pretty accurate at both the timing of the front yesterday and QPF of the rain we received, even a tad under (We got 2.2 inches at my house in far rural Parker County..) But there is a difference of QPF in a storm and QPF in a winter storm on the models. Models constantly undercut thunderstorms, but can be fairly accurate on a winter storm.

One trend that the NAM is taking now is to extend this winter storm deep into Monday. Basically, for the Metroplex, especially the counties north and west it starts early morning Sunday and it does not let off even into the 84h as far as we can go out on the NAM. Yes, that is a 2 day even of over 1-1.5 inch QPF..

My worries.. The ground will have 3 full days of in the 30's to cool down. It will still be somewhat warm, but won't take as much if the 2nd push of Arctic air gets temps in the upper 20's. Right now I am looking at temps just west of Abilene in the mid to upper 20's, colder than predicted. This morning in was 31 at my house, 2 degrees colder than predicted. It doesn't take much, especially when the dynamics of the low pressure are overhead for air temps to drop a couple of degrees colder than predicted.

However, biggest point of concern are points south of the Metroplex (Waco/West) where the models are suggesting freezing rain.. This could be a highly dangerous situation, wouldn't be surprised if the freezing gets to the Temple/Austin areas as well and makes this weekend a horrible one to travel on..

Further north, I still think there is a good chance for regular old snow.. The soundings on Sunday continue to show just barely a nose at 825mb at +.1c which is a pretty massive sleet storm, but the soft snowy type of sleet, not the hard ice pellets that turn something into an ice rink. There is a bigger nose of warm air at 750mb-800mb, but again just a nose of +1c.. Basically, at +.1c I would more believe its freezing because it would make more sense, however those warm air at the 750mb-800mb at +1c can't be ignored, but it still 2-3 degrees close to freezing.. I still believe that points from Jack County, Palo Pinto county and maybe even eastward if the dynamics are stronger could be all snow.. Definitely, not ruling it out.. Those in the far north west could see snow totals of 6-8" and wherever the mixing takes place, the transition of where its sleet and where its snow will be the biggest winner of probably up to a foot of snow.. I see snow mixing into the Metroplex late Sunday night when the core of the storm is at its strongest, but change back to sleet and possibly freezing rain as the low passes to the south..

Btw.. Just to let you know, the temp at my house has dropped more.. Its now 30 degrees in Parker county and the Schools in Springtown are talking about letting out early because they are hearing the Mets are seeing temps lower than previously thought because the dewpoints are lower than thought.. Even inside the metroplex dewpoint is at 27 degrees, which means there is plenty of room for more wetbulb when this swab of moisture hits in a couple of hours..

[joshskeety]

Btw.. According to ECMWF, it says NAM IS TOO WARM.. Its all Snow... And it destroys half of Texas with 6-12 inches of snow.. lol.. Who knows now...
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/580/07o9.jpg

[Portastorm]

I'm still not buying into the NAM solution. It has a known bias of overloading the cold sector with too much QPF as the WPC mentioned yesterday. Srainhoutx and I are liking the Euro/SREF combo, which by the way suggests a winter storm on Sunday-Monday for much of Texas akin to the NAM but a little different.

And I want to go back to yesterday and wxman57's great analogy to 1993 and the famous "Leon Lett Bowl" game between Dallas-Miami on Thanksgiving. If you want to know what to expect in DFW and North Texas ... there you go.

By the way, we have dropped 32 degrees since midnight. Temperature at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County is a chilly 41 degrees. And we were fortunate to pick up about an inch of rain in the last 24 hours. Every bit helps!

[gboudx]

It was 35 at my house in Rockwall at 7am. It's dropped to 33.

[srainhoutx]

Icing on elevated surfaces reported in Bowie. Snow and sleet with some travel issues reported in Terry County in the LUB WFO.

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff Lindner:

Lots going on this morning….

Arctic boundary is blasting through SE TX currently. Temperature is 46 at College Station with NW Winds gusting to 26 while it is 74 at Sugar Land. Front is making very good progress and will be off the coast by late morning/noon. High temperatures will be in the next few hours and then it will be a quick drop into the low 50’s as the front passes and into the 40’s by afternoon under strong NW winds and cloudy conditions with continued periods of rainfall. Line of thunderstorms has developed along the front producing a quick bout of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The area will likely not see high temperatures above 60 again until possibly Thanksgiving day.

Tonight-Saturday night:

Arctic cold dome builds into TX with temperatures hovering in the 40’s and 30’s through this period. Upstream SW flow aloft will provide a few disturbances to ride up and over the surface cold air producing periods of rain and showers through Saturday. Increasingly drier air will filter SW into the region from the NE helping to end rainfall from the NE by late Saturday. Temperatures should remain above freezing across our entire area through this period so everything should be liquid. Ice could be a problem NW of a line from Fort Worth to Waco starting this afternoon.

Sunday-Monday:

Major winter storm heading for TX with significant impacts likely

Large upper level storm system will lift into the state out of the SW US late this weekend with cold air locked in place. The result will be a variety of liquid/freezing/frozen precipitation across a large part of TX from Sunday into Monday.

SE TX:

Coastal low will form late Sunday off the lower TX coast in response to large scale lift arriving from the west. This low will sling copious moisture northward into SE TX by afternoon with cloud decks lowering and thickening. Surface layer will dry out Saturday evening and then moisten again on Sunday. Expect to see rainfall develop from SW to NE late in the day and overspread much of the region Sunday night into Monday morning and jet dynamics and lift are increased. I am concerned with the P-type onset of the precipitation Sunday night north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston. With dry air in place below the cloud base layer there could be just enough wet bulb cooling to allowing a shrinking warm nose in the mid layer to allow onset as sleet. Other concern is surface temperatures in the mid 30’s north of the above mentioned line which with some evaporative cooling could drop to near freezing allowing for some freezing rain. Still too early to be confident in anything this far out, but there is a chance of some frozen/freezing precp. Monday morning north of a Brenham to Conroe to Livingston line. South of this line all rainfall will remain liquid as temperatures will hold in the upper 30’s to near 40 on Monday under widespread rainfall. Could even deal will some heavy rainfall along and south of US 59 depending on exactly where the coastal low tracks.

Tides could also become a problem on Monday as the pressure gradient really intensifies over the NW Gulf and strong ENE to NE winds push water toward the coast.

NC TX/Hill Country/NW TX:

Major winter storm expected with accumulations of ice and sleet. Onset of precipitation along and west of I-35 (Dallas to Waco area and then WSW into the Hill Country) on Sunday will be likely in the form of widespread sleet falling into a surface layer at or below freezing. Soundings suggest a prolonged sleet/freezing rain event from Sunday into midday Monday with some significant accumulations possible. NAM is showing significant snowfall in this area, but likely has the incorrect P-type as the forecast soundings show a defined warm nose and a fairly classic sleet profile. If the warm nose is a little deeper then the main result could be freezing rain and significant ice buildup. The most likely event at this point is likely a combination of sleet and freezing rain mix resulting in a crusty and heavy glazing of bridges and overpasses. Many trees still have foliage and icing will result in problems with trees and power lines. Not confident yet on ice/sleet accumulations, but some of the guidance is yielding upwards of an inch of sleet/ice mix in this region which would be a very significant ice storm event.

Tuesday-Thanksgiving:

Coastal and upper level storm move eastward with drying across the state, but still cold conditions. Should see clearing skies on Wednesday, but clouds may already start to return on Thanksgiving Day with continued cold conditions on lows in the 30’s and highs in the 50’s.

Note:

Persons with travel plans to the N and NW of SE TX this weekend should be fully aware of the potential winter storm impacts which will linger well into early next week. Numerous watches and advisories will be issued today to cover the various coming impacts. As with all winter weather events, the forecast will change and considering we are still about 48 hours from the onset of the event there remains a fair degree of uncertainty.

The following products have been issued west of a line from Dallas to west of Waco to Del Rio:

Winter Storm Watch

Winter Weather Advisory

Freezing Rain Advisory

Currently pouring at my house with thunder and lightning with 50f and falling. Gonna be COLD this weekend and into next week. Everyone in Texas needs to stay tuned to the weather for the next several days.

[Portastorm]

Icing on elevated surfaces reported in Bowie. Snow and sleet with some travel issues reported in Terry County in the LUB WFO.

The West Texas field office of the PWC, located in Lubbock, reported some icing on roads just south of Lubbock in Post. Major accident due to "black ice" in/near Post with some 18-wheelers. We'll be seeing a lot more of that in the coming hours, I'm sure.

BTW, if you're ever driving through Post, they have a great little baseball field there named for Norm Cash (former Detroit Tiger and MLB Hall of Famer).

[Ntxw]

While I do think sleet is likely after reviewing plots and models I do wonder if the dendritic growth zone could actually happen entirely within the cold air. Latest NAM has below freezing for almost 5k ft which is not so shallow. I do wonder if a high snow potential is possible as Josh mentioned.

[joshskeety]

While I do think sleet is likely after reviewing plots and models I do wonder if the dendritic growth zone could actually happen entirely within the cold air. Latest NAM has below freezing for almost 5k ft which is not so shallow. I do wonder if a high snow potential is possible as Josh mentioned.

A good buddy and probably one of the best Mets I have ever had the pleasure of knowing once told me that the trend.. Is your friend.. When reading the models..

The GFS was out to lunch on this thing from the get-go..

SREF models usually undercut QPF has increased..

NAM seems to have pinpointed this thing pretty accurately and every run its trending SLIGHTLY colder, with a little less QPF each go around..

ECMWF is the coldest of them all and says, BS, its all snow, thank you goodnight, but has trended colder each run as well..

I think its safe to assume that although I still feel the Metroplex is in for a sleet storm (btw, I feel the 1993 Leon bowl is close, but QPF's were much less than what we are being shown) it looked worse on the field that day than it actually was.. I think this Low is more dynamic, stronger, and a tad further south than that one was.

What I am saying is, don't be surprised if the trend continues and places especially north and west of DFW get all snow..

[Portastorm]

WPC has some interesting thoughts on this weekend's system and the model runs:

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 22 2013 - 12Z MON NOV 25 2013

...DAYS 1-3...

GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE THERMAL PROFILES AHEAD OF AND ACCOMPANYING THE LOW IS
REASONABLY GOOD THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DIFFERING CHOICES BECOME APPARENT. THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...GREATER EMPHASIS WAS PLACED UPON THE NAM AND SREF MEAN
TO DEVELOP THE PROBABILITIES OF HEAVY SNOW FROM SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE SIERRAS AND SAN BERNARDINOS INTO THE MOGOLLON RIM/WASATCH AND
SAN JUANS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER FROM 5 TO 6 THOUSAND
FEET NEAR THE LOW CENTER TO 7 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET AHEAD OF
IT...WITH HEAVY TOTALS EXPECTED OVERALL.

BY SUNDAY...MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TRACKING TOWARD THE
PLAINS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW RECEIVING LITTLE
INFLUENCE FOR MOVEMENT WITHIN AND IN WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE SOLUTIONS MOST ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE INCLUDE THE 00Z
GFS/12Z UKMET AND THE MOST RECENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS...EXCEPT
THE SREF WHICH IS INFLUENCED BY TOO MANY FAST 12Z NAM-LIKE
MEMBERS. THE SOLUTION LEAST ALIGNED WITH THIS APPROACH IS THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WHICH EJECTS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THEREFORE GENERATING A SWATH OF
FROZEN/MIXED PRECIP NORTH OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. ITS LATEST RUN
(00Z) HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD ITS PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WHICH ADDS SUPPORT FOR THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.

REGARDLESS OF LOW'S PRECISE SPEED AND TRAJECTORY...HEAVY SNOW WILL
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE WANING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS DRIER SUB-CLOUD
AIR DEEPENS. WHAT IS LESS CLEAR IS THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THE DRIER SCENARIOS
ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER EXIT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ROOM EXISTS FOR A PORTION OF THE LOW TO EJECT OUTWARD
FROM THE CENTER...OR FOR PERTURBATIONS TO GROW AND/OR DEVELOP
WITHIN ITS TROUGH AND ASCEND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THE PROBABILITIES FOR ICE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND/OR INCREASED. FOR NOW...HAVE
RELIED UPON THE SLOWER/DRIER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP THE
MODE FOR THE ICE PROBABILITIES THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS AND GEFS
MEAN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z-00Z UKMET...ALTHOUGH THE
THERMAL PROFILES WERE PARTIALLY BASED UPON THE 00Z NAM/21Z SREF
MEAN TO CAPTURE ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION...INCLUDING
VERTICAL. A POTENTIAL TARGET AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL BE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE ICE TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.25 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...ASSUMING A FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE.

[Ntxw]

If it is snow and both NAM/Euro are correct it would rival DFW's infamous snowmaggedon, qpf is there

[joshskeety]

Btw, 12z run coldest yet.. NAM continuing the trend.. QPF down a bit more for my area, what was about 1.25 is now about 1.0 or so as the storm moves through faster. The low takes the same track, just pushes through quicker.

Soundings for the metroplex have cooled yet again.. Basically from 800mb to the surface its now fully below freezing.. For my area (NW of DFW) its freezing from 775mb to surface..

At the time the low passes the only 725mb and 750mb are just 1c away from freezing..

That is pretty darn close.. lol

[Portastorm]

Btw, 12z run coldest yet.. NAM continuing the trend.. QPF down a bit more for my area, what was about 1.25 is now about 1.0 or so as the storm moves through faster. The low takes the same track, just pushes through quicker.

Soundings for the metroplex have cooled yet again.. Basically from 800mb to the surface its now fully below freezing.. For my area (NW of DFW) its freezing from 775mb to surface..

At the time the low passes the only 725mb and 750mb are just 1c away from freezing..

That is pretty darn close.. lol

So the 12z NAM is even faster than previous runs? Oh my ... will be curious to see if other models follow suit or if NAM continues to be the outlier in this respect.

[joshskeety]

Btw, 12z run coldest yet.. NAM continuing the trend.. QPF down a bit more for my area, what was about 1.25 is now about 1.0 or so as the storm moves through faster. The low takes the same track, just pushes through quicker.

Soundings for the metroplex have cooled yet again.. Basically from 800mb to the surface its now fully below freezing.. For my area (NW of DFW) its freezing from 775mb to surface..

At the time the low passes the only 725mb and 750mb are just 1c away from freezing..

That is pretty darn close.. lol

So the 12z NAM is even faster than previous runs? Oh my ... will be curious to see if other models follow suit or if NAM continues to be the outlier in this respect.

Yea, the weird thing is the track is about the same, the forming of the 2nd low in the Gulf is about the same, maybe a tad further SE and precip ends about 6h sooner.. GFS is coming in now to see if it is going to follow suite, minus the complete and utter contentment for moisture it always seems to have.. 0.o

[downsouthman1]

Another thing I'm picking up on this the NAM QPF bomb that develops on the back side of the GOM surface low across CTX. It has more QPF than yesterday's runs. I think, in part, this is why METs are starting to talk about an ice/sleet storm in CTX Sunday through Monday midday.

[joshskeety]

Yea, dont even look at the GFS.. Its so far out to lunch its eating Taco's in Cancun right now...

[somethingfunny]

You know with the JFK memorial thing going on this is just another big event in north Texas that brings in cold and winter precipitation in the cold months. Never fails! Makes you wonder what is in store for the Final Four in March .

You already know it!