Texas Fall 2013

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Jarodm12
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#821 Postby Jarodm12 » Fri Nov 22, 2013 8:39 pm

nams starting im excited cover us!
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#822 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:08 pm

Good evening guys. While we wait for the 0z models about the current system I wanted to talk a little bit about long term.

This map should speak for itself

Image

Basically we are going to repeat this pattern again to start December. Another robust and powerful series of highs will come down from Alaska as the Pacific continues it's march against the AO, in reality the Arctic vortex is strong and the AO is lowering only because the Pacific ridge is so powerful it's intruding into the AO territory forcing it down from the very positives that it will keep trying to get. I am seeing signals that potentially mid December (second week forward) a potential brutally cold air mass will come down from the Arctic and NW North America. The NAO remains fairly neutral so with that in mind, the Arctic dam has been broken and making a bee line to middle America.

At the same time the subtropical jet remains alive and well. We will continue to see winter storms threaten the southern plains in the next 3 weeks.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#823 Postby katheria » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:Good evening guys. While we wait for the 0z models about the current system I wanted to talk a little bit about long term.



and Gals :P

some of us have been lurking for years while we learn :)
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#824 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:31 pm

Beautiful long term map Ntxw. Very very interesting. The GFS in la la land is showing big arctic brreakouts
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#825 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Good evening guys. While we wait for the 0z models about the current system I wanted to talk a little bit about long term.

This map should speak for itself

[img]http://i42.tinypic.com/30jp475.gif

Basically we are going to repeat this pattern again to start December. Another robust and powerful series of highs will come down from Alaska as the Pacific continues it's march against the AO, in reality the Arctic vortex is strong and the AO is lowering only because the Pacific ridge is so powerful it's intruding into the AO territory forcing it down from the very positives that it will keep trying to get. I am seeing signals that potentially mid December (second week forward) a potential brutally cold air mass will come down from the Arctic and NW North America. The NAO remains fairly neutral so with that in mind, the Arctic dam has been broken and making a bee line to middle America.

At the same time the subtropical jet remains alive and well. We will continue to see winter storms threaten the southern plains in the next 3 weeks.


Have you seen the 500mb pattern forecast from the ECMWF Ensembles for days 10-15? It sure looks like its going to be a December to remember! :froze:
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#826 Postby Jarodm12 » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:37 pm

look at the 00z nam burying waco
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#827 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:43 pm

link of ensembles?
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#828 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:45 pm

Also some radar returns popping up near San Angelo
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#829 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:59 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Have you seen the 500mb pattern forecast from the ECMWF Ensembles for days 10-15? It sure looks like its going to be a December to remember! :froze:


I did see them. Wxman57 fell out of his chair at the sight of it, he is not having a November/December to remember. Probably dreaming of an island get-away in the South Pacific while bundled up in his heated blanket right now in Houston. PWC mets down in Scenic SW Austin are working frantically to keep up. Lots of ice cold beverages being passed around down there I've heard :lol:.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#830 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:17 pm

You know what worries me? Look at this beautiful tree in my front yard... just about every tree in DFW is still full of foliage. It'll look stunning covered in ice and snow... but if there's a lot of ice and snow... these fully loaded trees are going to be really vulnerable. :(

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#831 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:20 pm

somethingfunny wrote:You know what worries me? Look at this beautiful tree in my front yard... just about every tree in DFW is still full of foliage. It'll look stunning covered in ice and snow... but if there's a lot of ice and snow... these fully loaded trees are going to be really vulnerable. :(


Fantastic picture! I don't know if you notice too but this year there has been very vivid colors around here! And even the quantity of trees changing seems unusual. Maybe it's just the past few being so bad because of drought and dead trees but this year seems so good. I wonder if the wet October and early freeze helped bring out the intense, varying reds and yellows?
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#832 Postby dhweather » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:29 pm

But but but NOAA just came out and said a warmer than normal winter for Texas.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#833 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:38 pm

dhweather wrote:But but but NOAA just came out and said a warmer than normal winter for Texas.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html


They don't have a good track record, completely blew it 180 last year for the country :lol:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114001
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#834 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:
dhweather wrote:But but but NOAA just came out and said a warmer than normal winter for Texas.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html


They don't have a good track record, completely blew it 180 last year for the country :lol:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114001


Technically this is still Fall............... Winter does not start until Dec. 21st.
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#835 Postby gboudx » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:53 pm

Speaking of trees, I've noticed the native pecan trees have hardly any nuts on them this year. Last year they put them down like crazy. This year completely different. The squirrels must be ticked.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#836 Postby katheria » Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:00 pm

yep the trees are BEAUTIFUL this year thats for sure.....

i am worried thou about my arizona ash tree if we get alot of ice, its 45+ years old and the trunk is 6ft across at the base. cover's my entire front yard and half of the neighbors.
we lost a major branch earlier this spring to one of the storms
we park on the side of the house now as we are really worried about loosing another major branch

pecan crops seem to do that, i never buy pecans but just collect every other year. they seem to have a really good crop one year and the next is terrible...

can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area

i am still learning after 5 years :)
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#837 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:08 pm

katheria wrote:can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area

i am still learning after 5 years :)


The NAM has not changed much, it is still a big sleet/ice storm (potentially crippling) for All of north Texas including Waco, Tyler, Texarkana and just to the north of Austin through DFW and Oklahoma and is only a few degrees from all snow in the upper atmosphere in some places along I-20 and to the north/west. In other words, Monday's commute will be a bad one.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#838 Postby katheria » Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
katheria wrote:can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area

i am still learning after 5 years :)


The NAM has not changed much, it is still a big sleet/ice storm (potentially crippling) for All of north Texas including Waco, Tyler, and just to the north of Austin through DFW and Oklahoma.



thank you Ntxw, thats what i thought by looking at it. just wanted to make sure i was reading it right

plans for a 3 day weekend :)
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#839 Postby joshskeety » Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:19 pm

Yea, I don't put much stock in their long term forecasts.. I think the good ole' Farmers Almanac has a better track record.. Which by the way says this Winter will be the coldest in 25 years..

Just watch JB vein pop out in his head when he goes on about them using their percentages.. 33% chance greater to be warmer, yet wouldn't a warm or cold be 50/50 anyway? Its not even a guess. Its like saying, there is a 33% chance this coin I flip will be heads.. Doesn't compute..

Anyhow.. Looked over the 00z data and other than the 00z NAM yesterday its been rather consistent and in line with the SREF and ECMWF.. Other than the guess of QPF, I believe we may have our timing and track.. QPF is anyone's guess.. The NWS always tries to say the NAM has a cold bias, but I think its quite the opposite and has a warm bias.. Always have, even back when the NAM was the ETA.. (Yea, that long ago.. lol)

This storm is going to be one to remember for the Metroplex, take the '93 NOOOOOOO LEON!!!!!!!! Storm and times it by 3 and make it twice as long and you have Sleetorama '13... I still think the sleet will change over to snow North and West of the Metroplex for the last 6 hours of the storm..

I see the First precip hitting early Sunday morning about 3 in the morning in Ft. Worth and by daylight it should be all over the Metroplex.. I believe it will start off as freezing rain, but quickly change to sleet as the atmosphere moistens and humidity rises.. Moderate to at time heavy sleet from Abilene to Rockwall all day Sunday and into the early morning Monday where it will begin to slow down early Monday morning.. As convergence takes place the atmosphere begins to moisten again, this will begin heavy freezing rain towards the south near Temple/Waco/West areas, how far north it gets will depend on how strong the low is, but models easily have the Metroplex south of Graham/Jacksboro/Denton/McKinney line and starts back Moderate sleet for most..

I think at this point is when areas north and west of the Metroplex will change over to snow and have moderate to heavy snow showers until afternoon Monday and depending on wraparound will begin to taper off west to east in the early to mid evening Monday.. South and east of the metroplex warm air is trying to push back up North so those in Corsicana/Tyler maybe as far north as Wax will see freezing rain/sleet change back to rain as the temperature Monday late morning and early afternoon begin to rise above the freezing point, but even here I wouldn't be surprised as the low passes that even they may see a few flakes as they get some wrap around towards the end of the storm..

For the Metroplex that could mean 36 hours of frozen precip..

NWS thinks that the temps will raise everywhere on Monday afternoon, but I can't find a model that states this outside of the southeastern part of the Metroplex and by that I mean the Corsicana/Wax and places further east..

Of course, tomorrow's weather models could change all of this upside down as we all know, but figured I would let ya'll see what I see for this area.. Definitely one of the historic storms if everything verifies..

Josh

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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#840 Postby joshskeety » Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:24 pm

katheria wrote:yep the trees are BEAUTIFUL this year thats for sure.....

i am worried thou about my arizona ash tree if we get alot of ice, its 45+ years old and the trunk is 6ft across at the base. cover's my entire front yard and half of the neighbors.
we lost a major branch earlier this spring to one of the storms
we park on the side of the house now as we are really worried about loosing another major branch

pecan crops seem to do that, i never buy pecans but just collect every other year. they seem to have a really good crop one year and the next is terrible...

can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area

i am still learning after 5 years :)


I have 12 acres out here in Parker county and because of the mid May deep freeze we had this year, none of my peach or pecan trees gave off 1 peach or pecan this year.. We had 3 days in middle of May that got down into the low to mid 20's out here and it just whiped out all the buds and the pecan buds never flourished in July.. Also, it killed one of my Oak trees..
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