Texas Fall 2013
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Good evening guys. While we wait for the 0z models about the current system I wanted to talk a little bit about long term.
This map should speak for itself

Basically we are going to repeat this pattern again to start December. Another robust and powerful series of highs will come down from Alaska as the Pacific continues it's march against the AO, in reality the Arctic vortex is strong and the AO is lowering only because the Pacific ridge is so powerful it's intruding into the AO territory forcing it down from the very positives that it will keep trying to get. I am seeing signals that potentially mid December (second week forward) a potential brutally cold air mass will come down from the Arctic and NW North America. The NAO remains fairly neutral so with that in mind, the Arctic dam has been broken and making a bee line to middle America.
At the same time the subtropical jet remains alive and well. We will continue to see winter storms threaten the southern plains in the next 3 weeks.
This map should speak for itself

Basically we are going to repeat this pattern again to start December. Another robust and powerful series of highs will come down from Alaska as the Pacific continues it's march against the AO, in reality the Arctic vortex is strong and the AO is lowering only because the Pacific ridge is so powerful it's intruding into the AO territory forcing it down from the very positives that it will keep trying to get. I am seeing signals that potentially mid December (second week forward) a potential brutally cold air mass will come down from the Arctic and NW North America. The NAO remains fairly neutral so with that in mind, the Arctic dam has been broken and making a bee line to middle America.
At the same time the subtropical jet remains alive and well. We will continue to see winter storms threaten the southern plains in the next 3 weeks.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
Ntxw wrote:Good evening guys. While we wait for the 0z models about the current system I wanted to talk a little bit about long term.
and Gals

some of us have been lurking for years while we learn

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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Beautiful long term map Ntxw. Very very interesting. The GFS in la la land is showing big arctic brreakouts
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Ntxw wrote:Good evening guys. While we wait for the 0z models about the current system I wanted to talk a little bit about long term.
This map should speak for itself
[img]http://i42.tinypic.com/30jp475.gif
Basically we are going to repeat this pattern again to start December. Another robust and powerful series of highs will come down from Alaska as the Pacific continues it's march against the AO, in reality the Arctic vortex is strong and the AO is lowering only because the Pacific ridge is so powerful it's intruding into the AO territory forcing it down from the very positives that it will keep trying to get. I am seeing signals that potentially mid December (second week forward) a potential brutally cold air mass will come down from the Arctic and NW North America. The NAO remains fairly neutral so with that in mind, the Arctic dam has been broken and making a bee line to middle America.
At the same time the subtropical jet remains alive and well. We will continue to see winter storms threaten the southern plains in the next 3 weeks.
Have you seen the 500mb pattern forecast from the ECMWF Ensembles for days 10-15? It sure looks like its going to be a December to remember!

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- TeamPlayersBlue
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link of ensembles?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Also some radar returns popping up near San Angelo
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
Rgv20 wrote:Have you seen the 500mb pattern forecast from the ECMWF Ensembles for days 10-15? It sure looks like its going to be a December to remember!
I did see them. Wxman57 fell out of his chair at the sight of it, he is not having a November/December to remember. Probably dreaming of an island get-away in the South Pacific while bundled up in his heated blanket right now in Houston. PWC mets down in Scenic SW Austin are working frantically to keep up. Lots of ice cold beverages being passed around down there I've heard

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- somethingfunny
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
You know what worries me? Look at this beautiful tree in my front yard... just about every tree in DFW is still full of foliage. It'll look stunning covered in ice and snow... but if there's a lot of ice and snow... these fully loaded trees are going to be really vulnerable.



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Re: Texas Fall 2013
somethingfunny wrote:You know what worries me? Look at this beautiful tree in my front yard... just about every tree in DFW is still full of foliage. It'll look stunning covered in ice and snow... but if there's a lot of ice and snow... these fully loaded trees are going to be really vulnerable.![]()
Fantastic picture! I don't know if you notice too but this year there has been very vivid colors around here! And even the quantity of trees changing seems unusual. Maybe it's just the past few being so bad because of drought and dead trees but this year seems so good. I wonder if the wet October and early freeze helped bring out the intense, varying reds and yellows?
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
But but but NOAA just came out and said a warmer than normal winter for Texas.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

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Re: Texas Fall 2013
dhweather wrote:But but but NOAA just came out and said a warmer than normal winter for Texas.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html
They don't have a good track record, completely blew it 180 last year for the country

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114001
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Ntxw wrote:dhweather wrote:But but but NOAA just came out and said a warmer than normal winter for Texas.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html
They don't have a good track record, completely blew it 180 last year for the country![]()
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114001
Technically this is still Fall............... Winter does not start until Dec. 21st.
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Fall 2013
yep the trees are BEAUTIFUL this year thats for sure.....
i am worried thou about my arizona ash tree if we get alot of ice, its 45+ years old and the trunk is 6ft across at the base. cover's my entire front yard and half of the neighbors.
we lost a major branch earlier this spring to one of the storms
we park on the side of the house now as we are really worried about loosing another major branch
pecan crops seem to do that, i never buy pecans but just collect every other year. they seem to have a really good crop one year and the next is terrible...
can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area
i am still learning after 5 years
i am worried thou about my arizona ash tree if we get alot of ice, its 45+ years old and the trunk is 6ft across at the base. cover's my entire front yard and half of the neighbors.
we lost a major branch earlier this spring to one of the storms
we park on the side of the house now as we are really worried about loosing another major branch
pecan crops seem to do that, i never buy pecans but just collect every other year. they seem to have a really good crop one year and the next is terrible...
can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area
i am still learning after 5 years

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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
Re: Texas Fall 2013
katheria wrote:can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area
i am still learning after 5 years
The NAM has not changed much, it is still a big sleet/ice storm (potentially crippling) for All of north Texas including Waco, Tyler, Texarkana and just to the north of Austin through DFW and Oklahoma and is only a few degrees from all snow in the upper atmosphere in some places along I-20 and to the north/west. In other words, Monday's commute will be a bad one.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Ntxw wrote:katheria wrote:can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area
i am still learning after 5 years
The NAM has not changed much, it is still a big sleet/ice storm (potentially crippling) for All of north Texas including Waco, Tyler, and just to the north of Austin through DFW and Oklahoma.
thank you Ntxw, thats what i thought by looking at it. just wanted to make sure i was reading it right
plans for a 3 day weekend

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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
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Yea, I don't put much stock in their long term forecasts.. I think the good ole' Farmers Almanac has a better track record.. Which by the way says this Winter will be the coldest in 25 years..
Just watch JB vein pop out in his head when he goes on about them using their percentages.. 33% chance greater to be warmer, yet wouldn't a warm or cold be 50/50 anyway? Its not even a guess. Its like saying, there is a 33% chance this coin I flip will be heads.. Doesn't compute..
Anyhow.. Looked over the 00z data and other than the 00z NAM yesterday its been rather consistent and in line with the SREF and ECMWF.. Other than the guess of QPF, I believe we may have our timing and track.. QPF is anyone's guess.. The NWS always tries to say the NAM has a cold bias, but I think its quite the opposite and has a warm bias.. Always have, even back when the NAM was the ETA.. (Yea, that long ago.. lol)
This storm is going to be one to remember for the Metroplex, take the '93 NOOOOOOO LEON!!!!!!!! Storm and times it by 3 and make it twice as long and you have Sleetorama '13... I still think the sleet will change over to snow North and West of the Metroplex for the last 6 hours of the storm..
I see the First precip hitting early Sunday morning about 3 in the morning in Ft. Worth and by daylight it should be all over the Metroplex.. I believe it will start off as freezing rain, but quickly change to sleet as the atmosphere moistens and humidity rises.. Moderate to at time heavy sleet from Abilene to Rockwall all day Sunday and into the early morning Monday where it will begin to slow down early Monday morning.. As convergence takes place the atmosphere begins to moisten again, this will begin heavy freezing rain towards the south near Temple/Waco/West areas, how far north it gets will depend on how strong the low is, but models easily have the Metroplex south of Graham/Jacksboro/Denton/McKinney line and starts back Moderate sleet for most..
I think at this point is when areas north and west of the Metroplex will change over to snow and have moderate to heavy snow showers until afternoon Monday and depending on wraparound will begin to taper off west to east in the early to mid evening Monday.. South and east of the metroplex warm air is trying to push back up North so those in Corsicana/Tyler maybe as far north as Wax will see freezing rain/sleet change back to rain as the temperature Monday late morning and early afternoon begin to rise above the freezing point, but even here I wouldn't be surprised as the low passes that even they may see a few flakes as they get some wrap around towards the end of the storm..
For the Metroplex that could mean 36 hours of frozen precip..
NWS thinks that the temps will raise everywhere on Monday afternoon, but I can't find a model that states this outside of the southeastern part of the Metroplex and by that I mean the Corsicana/Wax and places further east..
Of course, tomorrow's weather models could change all of this upside down as we all know, but figured I would let ya'll see what I see for this area.. Definitely one of the historic storms if everything verifies..
Josh
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. disclaimer added by vbhoutex
Just watch JB vein pop out in his head when he goes on about them using their percentages.. 33% chance greater to be warmer, yet wouldn't a warm or cold be 50/50 anyway? Its not even a guess. Its like saying, there is a 33% chance this coin I flip will be heads.. Doesn't compute..
Anyhow.. Looked over the 00z data and other than the 00z NAM yesterday its been rather consistent and in line with the SREF and ECMWF.. Other than the guess of QPF, I believe we may have our timing and track.. QPF is anyone's guess.. The NWS always tries to say the NAM has a cold bias, but I think its quite the opposite and has a warm bias.. Always have, even back when the NAM was the ETA.. (Yea, that long ago.. lol)
This storm is going to be one to remember for the Metroplex, take the '93 NOOOOOOO LEON!!!!!!!! Storm and times it by 3 and make it twice as long and you have Sleetorama '13... I still think the sleet will change over to snow North and West of the Metroplex for the last 6 hours of the storm..
I see the First precip hitting early Sunday morning about 3 in the morning in Ft. Worth and by daylight it should be all over the Metroplex.. I believe it will start off as freezing rain, but quickly change to sleet as the atmosphere moistens and humidity rises.. Moderate to at time heavy sleet from Abilene to Rockwall all day Sunday and into the early morning Monday where it will begin to slow down early Monday morning.. As convergence takes place the atmosphere begins to moisten again, this will begin heavy freezing rain towards the south near Temple/Waco/West areas, how far north it gets will depend on how strong the low is, but models easily have the Metroplex south of Graham/Jacksboro/Denton/McKinney line and starts back Moderate sleet for most..
I think at this point is when areas north and west of the Metroplex will change over to snow and have moderate to heavy snow showers until afternoon Monday and depending on wraparound will begin to taper off west to east in the early to mid evening Monday.. South and east of the metroplex warm air is trying to push back up North so those in Corsicana/Tyler maybe as far north as Wax will see freezing rain/sleet change back to rain as the temperature Monday late morning and early afternoon begin to rise above the freezing point, but even here I wouldn't be surprised as the low passes that even they may see a few flakes as they get some wrap around towards the end of the storm..
For the Metroplex that could mean 36 hours of frozen precip..
NWS thinks that the temps will raise everywhere on Monday afternoon, but I can't find a model that states this outside of the southeastern part of the Metroplex and by that I mean the Corsicana/Wax and places further east..
Of course, tomorrow's weather models could change all of this upside down as we all know, but figured I would let ya'll see what I see for this area.. Definitely one of the historic storms if everything verifies..
Josh
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. disclaimer added by vbhoutex
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
katheria wrote:yep the trees are BEAUTIFUL this year thats for sure.....
i am worried thou about my arizona ash tree if we get alot of ice, its 45+ years old and the trunk is 6ft across at the base. cover's my entire front yard and half of the neighbors.
we lost a major branch earlier this spring to one of the storms
we park on the side of the house now as we are really worried about loosing another major branch
pecan crops seem to do that, i never buy pecans but just collect every other year. they seem to have a really good crop one year and the next is terrible...
can someone do a basic run down of the 00UTC NAM? and what it shows for the dfw area
i am still learning after 5 years
I have 12 acres out here in Parker county and because of the mid May deep freeze we had this year, none of my peach or pecan trees gave off 1 peach or pecan this year.. We had 3 days in middle of May that got down into the low to mid 20's out here and it just whiped out all the buds and the pecan buds never flourished in July.. Also, it killed one of my Oak trees..
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