Texas Fall 2013

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Big blob of moisture just coming into the WV picture SW of Mexico. Thanks for the right up SRain. We have seen some SE Tx magic under a cold core low. I didnt know it was expected to track anywhere the SE Tx, guess i wasnt paying attention.

Edit: Ok i see it now. It has it coming directly over us on the 500 MB. That would be nice

[RedRiverRefuge]

CAVANAUGH FWD discussion out. Luv this man. Won't post as it is long and well descriptive (as usual). Will let you metroplex folks read yourself. Hoping all this major ugliness spares my little neck of the woods

[opticsguy]

time to gas up the generator and trim a few tree branches. Snow, sleet, or ice, it's going to be bad in DFW.

Speaking of fall wx. A week ago we drove down I-55 from Chicago to Dallas. Outside Normal,IL, we got caught in a storm that developed so quickly we couldn't get out of it. We and a few other cars got caught in the RFD of a supercell. Luckily, the wind was from straight ahead or our minivan would have flipped.

http://imageshack.us/a/img543/5130/lq4p.jpg

We knew it was going to be bad, but this whole line developed in about 15 minutes

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow. Excellent read. Thats what i like in my forecasters. That write up took some time and a great deal of analysis. Bravo. I think you guys in N Tx are going to be in for it. Hopefully it isnt too troublesome, all of you be careful out there and dont do anything if you dont have to.

[Ntxw]

Big blob of moisture just coming into the WV picture SW of Mexico. Thanks for the right up SRain. We have seen some SE Tx magic under a cold core low. I didnt know it was expected to track anywhere the SE Tx, guess i wasnt paying attention.

Edit: Ok i see it now. It has it coming directly over us on the 500 MB. That would be nice

HGX does mention this possibility in their AFD and quite frankly models underperform when accounting for lift underneath these upper lows. This one will be deepening as it crosses Texas and could pull in moisture more than what the models are currently showing especially if a good coastal low forms. This is not just for SE TX, parts of LA and east TX could be on the same boat.

*****
A FINAL CONCERN WILL BE ON TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO ROTATE ACROSS TEXAS. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING THE LOW SOUTH ACROSS W TX IN RESPONSE TO
PHASING WITH UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ALL SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER SE TX FROM
12Z TUE THROUGH 00Z WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIX WINTRY PRECIP IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TUE TIME
FRAME. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT AND
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND CERTAINLY PLENTY OF LIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN A
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON MOISTURE
MAY BE LACKING ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT.
AGAIN WHILE THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD INCLUDE THE HOUSTON AREA THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE PROFILES FOR ANY
PRECIP BUT ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY THAT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
DESPITE THERE LIKELY NOT BEING ANY ACCUMULATION.

[dhweather]

Cavanaugh is all over it, as usual. He leaves no question unanswered.

[NDG]

And to think that the official forecast by the CPC for the month of November at the state of TX was for a warm and dry month.

[orangeblood]

hmmm...1 run doesn't make a trend but 12 NAM going towards GFS with a warmer/drier scenario

[Portastorm]

So, I wake up to a Winter Storm Watch for Austin. What did I tell you guys yesterday?!

As I told my buddy srainhoutx this morning, I wish we had a "Cavanaugh" at EWX. We were reminiscing about the days when the great McFarland wrote AFDs out of Brownsville.

[Ntxw]

hmmm...1 run doesn't make a trend but 12 NAM going towards GFS with a warmer/drier scenario

It sure isn't, but it can definitely make folks on the cusp like Austin and Waco panic. Oh the emotions Portastorm must be feeling right now. Sure wasn't expecting PWC mets having to start work so early before Thanksgiving!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Ports, Lucy is at the front door with a football. Lace up those shoes!

[SouthernMet]

Wow... NAM was unbelievably consistent for days, that run is backwards from 6z. Euro/cmc/Sref still sticking to their guns.

The next 24 hours of model guidance is going to be very important..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Woah big change.

[funster]

If it all dries up and vanishes that will be okay. There's nothing fun about an ice storm. Anyone who wants one of those deserves to lose power for two weeks. We don't want to be without power on Black Friday!!!

[orangeblood]

Wow... NAM was unbelievably consistent for days, that run is backwards from 6z. Euro/cmc/Sref still sticking to their guns.

The next 24 hours of model guidance is going to be very important..

Now 09Z SREF following suit, warmer and drier. Interesting, I wonder what they are starting to pick up on?

[Texas Snowman]

We're all going to get suckered into taking a swipe at Lucy's football!

[Portastorm]

Ports, Lucy is at the front door with a football. Lace up those shoes!

LOL! ... yeah, maybe. The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC have put down their vodka this morning to spend a few hours perusing the models ... no, not THOSE models ... the computer models!

PWC still believes an amalgam of the Euro and SREF ensembles are the best course of action. For now.

[gpsnowman]

Is it time to start panicking?

[orangeblood]

I think I figured out one issue with the NAM and SREF now, like the GFS has been doing all along they're initializing the temps 2-3 deg F too warm. Will make a HUGE difference in their output if that input is incorrect

[iorange55]

You can't really change your whole forecast with just one model run, but it's interesting. We'll have to watch how strong the upper low is coming in and see which models appear to be handling it best.

Winter weather in Texas is never easy to predict. Almost anything could happen, let's just hope it's not freezing rain.