Texas Fall 2013

ROCK · #901 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:18 pm

so good to be back and see PORT all excited about weather again. After hurricane season crashed and burned I thought I would never see hm again!! :lol:

time to watch recent soundings, radar trends, temps profiles as the event is almost upon you NTX folks....

#902 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:24 pm

Good to see you, ROCK! Yeah ... what a horrible tropical season it was, although some would say it was awesome.

I went thru rehab and am better now. :lol:

You, my brother, may even end up with a sleet pellet or two down there in southeast Texas. Stay tuned.

sooner101 · #903 Postby **sooner101** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:25 pm

It seems to always come down to the last second on predicting winter storms in Texas.. Hoping for a snow event here in north texas!

ROCK · #904 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:35 pm

always been the case here in Texas....well here in SE TX anyway...I remember when we would have great soundings to support snow over a wide area but only get one band over an isolated area. Thats the way it is down here.

What is interesting is the early onset of winter for Texas...sign of things to come? a 1050H in ND in Nov is impressive. All of this with not that great of a northern snow pack. wow!! be safe NTX...

sooner101 · #905 Postby **sooner101** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:42 pm

Seems to be the same up here in North Texas also. Anxious ok what's coming tomorrow through Monday!

#906 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 1:26 pm

This Front was all business!! :cold:

A major shift in the weather resulted in 30-40 degree change of temperatures in 24 hours. Friday morning's lows were quite balmy and summer-like. Once the cold air settled in overnight, temperatures plunged into the lower 40s. Even more impressive was the drop from Friday afternoon's highs to this morning's lows. Brownsville, Harlingen and McAllen all reached 88 degrees Friday before the front blasted through. This resulted in up to a 48 degree change in 18 hours with the first 30 degrees drop occurring in about 2 hours. -Bogorad-

Annie Oakley · #907 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 1:46 pm

RGV-those are insane drops in The Valley..... what's going on tonight down there?

JGrin87 · #908 Postby **JGrin87** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 1:46 pm

Is the precip falling in West Texas the leading edge of the system heading to North Texas?

#909 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 1:58 pm

JGrin87 wrote:Is the precip falling in West Texas the leading edge of the system heading to North Texas?

Nope. The current precip in West Texas is a result of isentropic upglide and a minor disturbance in the flow. The main precip band associated with the upper low will not impact West Texas until early tomorrow morning and then slowly impact the rest of the state.

#910 Postby **gboudx** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:06 pm

If anyone is interested in former DFW TV met Steve McCauleys thoughts, you can find it on his Facebook page. You don't end a FB account to see it.

https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

ludosc · #911 Postby **ludosc** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:11 pm

what is the Texas Tech model? I hadn't heard of that one until reading his posts. Says a all rain event apparently.

Annie Oakley · #912 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:12 pm

Portastorm wrote:
JGrin87 wrote:Is the precip falling in West Texas the leading edge of the system heading to North Texas?

Nope. The current precip in West Texas is a result of isentropic upglide and a minor disturbance in the flow. The main precip band associated with the upper low will not impact West Texas until early tomorrow morning and then slowly impact the rest of the state.

North meets South

#913 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:15 pm

12z Euro is wrap around snow underneath the low for parts of Texas. It's trying to go negative tilt over the state.

#914 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:12z Euro is wrap around snow underneath the low for a lot of Texas. It's trying to go negative tilt over the state.

I was just about to post on that ... certainly raises an eyebrow or two. Should that 12z Euro op run verify, I'd be posting "It's snowing at the PWC" pictures for you all to see on Monday. Now wouldn't THAT be something?! :wink:

iorange55 · #915 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:21 pm

NWS DFW update

BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z TODAY (6 AM TO 6 PM CST). THE
DECREASE OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LAG BEHIND...BUT EXPECT
DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WHEN PRECIP BEGINS ON SUNDAY. THE
PRECIP WILL FALL THROUGH A VERY DRY LAYER WITHIN WHICH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE NEAR FREEZING. INITIALLY...THIS COULD
BE LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WOULD LIKELY MAKE A RAPID TRANSITION
TO SLEET IN WESTERN ZONES...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
TREMENDOUS WET BULB POTENTIAL...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WATCH. BUT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WARNING OR AN
ADVISORY AS NEEDED. 25

#916 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:23 pm

As far as tomorrow thru Monday goes Euro is still very much on with heavy sleet/snow for areas just west of Austin through the metroplex up to Texarkana. The winter storm warning areas line up very well with the guidance

Edit: If the euro is right potentially it's several inches of sleet (uncertain due to model's struggles with amounts for IP). And then several inches of snow on top of that come Monday night Tues.

Jarodm12 · #917 Postby **Jarodm12** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:25 pm

ludosc wrote:what is the Texas Tech model? I hadn't heard of that one until reading his posts. Says a all rain event apparently.

here you go enjoy! but i think shes dead wrong this time or sure hope. http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_ti ... _slp&run=0

Longhornmaniac8 · #918 Postby **Longhornmaniac8** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:As far as tomorrow thru Monday goes Euro is still very much on with heavy sleet/snow for areas just west of Austin through the metroplex up to Texarkana. The winter storm warning areas line up very well with the guidance

Edit: If the euro is right potentially it's several inches of sleet (uncertain due to model's struggles with amounts for IP). And then several inches of snow on top of that come Monday night Tues.

What site are you using to view these model outputs like snowfall? The PSU E-Wall that I use to see the models themselves doesn't have this info.

Thanks!

Cheers,
Cameron

Jarodm12 · #919 Postby **Jarodm12** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:34 pm

18utc and 00utc very important runs even the 06utc. by then we should be at the cusp of the monster.

#920 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:35 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:As far as tomorrow thru Monday goes Euro is still very much on with heavy sleet/snow for areas just west of Austin through the metroplex up to Texarkana. The winter storm warning areas line up very well with the guidance

Edit: If the euro is right potentially it's several inches of sleet (uncertain due to model's struggles with amounts for IP). And then several inches of snow on top of that come Monday night Tues.

What site are you using to view these model outputs like snowfall? The PSU E-Wall that I use to see the models themselves doesn't have this info.

Thanks!

Cheers,
Cameron

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