Texas Fall 2013

[downsouthman1]

The 6z NAM is still over playing dry air.. It has Abilene at only .09 QPF for the whole storm now all while a huge band is getting ready to go through it.. It had this band already dissipated by now and trying to reform over Fredericksburg.. It has lost touch with reality..

Yup. The NAM is 100% fully out of touch with reality. Hi Res & observation time.

[orangeblood]

Fascinating discussion from Cavanaugh out of the FTW office this morning, explains why you use modeling as a TOOL not as the final solution.

Temps continue to drop across the metroplex with some places even reaching freezing before the wet bulb effect kicks in. Still think NWS is 2-3 deg too warm with their forecast.

[sooner101]

Fascinating discussion from Cavanaugh out of the FTW office this morning, explains why you use modeling as a TOOL not as the final solution.

Temps continue to drop across the metroplex with some places even reaching freezing before the wet bulb effect kicks in. Still think NWS is 2-3 deg too warm with their forecast.

Do you think this could result in snow if temps are colder here in the metroplex by the time the precip starts?

[Portastorm]

Fascinating discussion from Cavanaugh out of the FTW office this morning, explains why you use modeling as a TOOL not as the final solution.

Temps continue to drop across the metroplex with some places even reaching freezing before the wet bulb effect kicks in. Still think NWS is 2-3 deg too warm with their forecast.

Do you think this could result in snow if temps are colder here in the metroplex by the time the precip starts?

Based on everything I've read out of NWS Fort Worth this morning, that answer would be no snow today in the Metroplex. Your chance at snow would come when the actual upper low moves west to east across the state. And right now the forecasted track of that low is one of the larger questions at hand.

[Portastorm]

Interesting to see EWX back waaaaay off their forecast and keeping the event primarily rain mixed with sleet, and light amounts, for the duration. Guess they're going "all in" with the NAM and SREF and shorter-term models which suggest warmer temps than anticipated yesterday. They've completely removed the Austin metro area from any advisories whatsoever.

I saw signs of this last night but wanted to see how the overnight model trends developed. I know this much, dew points have dropped like a rock. Down to 28 now and was 10 degrees warmer just about 7 hours ago. We'll have sufficient wet-bulb cooling for some sleet today I think. But then again, what do I know?!

[iorange55]

I really don't think temps will be the problem. It seems like several local mets are worried that we might just stay a little above freezing most of the time. A lot of the area is already at freezing and dew points are in the low 20s/high teens. Just seems more likely that most of North Texas would be in the 28-32 degree range during this event.

We'll see what happens. Hopefully it's not that bad.

[Portastorm]

Here's some interesting Sunday morning thoughts from the Winter Weather desk at the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) in College Park, MD.


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 24 2013 - 12Z WED NOV 27 2013

...DAYS 1-3...

SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...

THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH THE
UPPER JET BENEATH IT DEVELOPING GREATER SEPARATION. IN ADDITION
TO HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INCLUDING THE SAN JUANS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND WASATCH AS THE LOW EXITS THE SOUTHWEST...THE LOW REMAINS ON
TRACK TO CROSS TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING AS
THE WARM LAYER INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE...
RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TOWARD AND/OR INCREASE OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY IS REASONABLY GOOD...WITH
THE COLDER NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OVER TEXAS
PREFERRED OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ECMWF...WITH A BROAD MIX OF
MODEL QPF DESIRED TO ADDRESS LINGERING SYSTEM UNCERTAINTIES. EVEN
WITH THIS BROAD APPROACH...FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.5
INCHES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWEST OF FORT
WORTH AND NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO...WITH INTERSTATE 35 LARGELY
DELINEATING THE EASTERN EDGE. ANOTHER SURGE OF FREEZING RAIN
ALBEIT WITH LOWER RATES MAY IMPACT PARTS OF ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BY THIS TIME WILL BE EVEN MORE
MARGINAL THAT EARLIER ON MONDAY.

[sooner101]

The local mets here in DFW are a buzz kill every year for us who love winter weather and keeping up with the storms..

[Parker_County1]

I am in Weatherford and so maybe can give you all an idea of what's moving in from the west. Precipitation started at 7:29. Mostly very light rain currently, with every once in a while a sleet pellet. 33°. I am about 400' higher elevation than DFW so it maybe a little colder here.

[iorange55]

The local mets here in DFW are a buzz kill every year for us who love winter weather and keeping up with the storms..

I think they are just cautious. Besides, it's not like this would be a snow event. I'm sure most people would be pretty happy not to receive any freezing rain.

[Portastorm]

The local mets here in DFW are a buzz kill every year for us who love winter weather and keeping up with the storms..

I think they are just cautious. Besides, it's not like this would be a snow event. I'm sure most people would be pretty happy not to receive any freezing rain.

Dunno about your on-air mets, but you had Cavanaugh running the desk this morning out of NWSFO DFW and he issued the forecast. I'm not sure, but I have heard that God sometimes consults Cavanaugh about the weather. (just kidding ... just kidding).

Winter weather in Texas is always a dicey proposition. It's a little easier to forecast in the Panhandle and South Plains as compared to the DFW Metroplex or I-35 corridor or southeast Texas. There's usually a ton of factors involved and this weekend's system is no different. So yeah, caution is usually the best approach to a forecast unless you feel REAL confident about what you're seeing.

[Meteorcane]

Sleeting pretty good here in central oklahoma mesonet data is showing the wet bulb cooling (from sublimation) pretty well as surface temps drop and surface dew points rise hopefully the column will cool enough for this sleet to change to snow

[TexasF6]

Porta, I am looking at the wet-bulb pushing south towards Austin WITH the current line of precip, and I see our dewpoints are BELOW freezing??!!! What is EWX smoking???? I totally disagree with bouncing Austin out of the danger zone, especially NW Austin, Georgetown, Skeeter Park, Leander etc, all areas which do poorly during this type of event!!! Troy Kimmel is also disagreeing with them not being extra cautious relying on only surface temps while ignoring the science...Thoughts my good Sir?

[Portastorm]

Porta, I am looking at the wet-bulb pushing south towards Austin WITH the current line of precip, and I see our dewpoints are BELOW freezing??!!! What is EWX smoking???? I totally disagree with bouncing Austin out of the danger zone, especially NW Austin, Georgetown, Skeeter Park, Leander etc, all areas which do poorly during this type of event!!! Troy Kimmel is also disagreeing with them not being extra cautious relying on only surface temps while ignoring the science...Thoughts my good Sir?

I totally agree with you and Troy. I actually have known Troy a long time and he's a very good meteorologist and has seen/forecasted many, many winter weather events in these parts. He knows his stuff!

Yeah TexasF6, I was quite surprised this morning to see EWX ramping down the advisories/warnings, actually. Who knows, maybe they'll be right. They ARE the professionals. But when you go from a Winter Storm Warning to nothing, you better be seeing something which strongly suggests no threat. And I don't see it. I don't see it in the short-range models or in the radar returns or in the lowering dewpoints. We've always been on the cusp of the threat line and we still are. So why make such a drastic change?

Edit update: KXAN is reporting that sleet is now falling in Mason County.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Porta, I am looking at the wet-bulb pushing south towards Austin WITH the current line of precip, and I see our dewpoints are BELOW freezing??!!! What is EWX smoking???? I totally disagree with bouncing Austin out of the danger zone, especially NW Austin, Georgetown, Skeeter Park, Leander etc, all areas which do poorly during this type of event!!! Troy Kimmel is also disagreeing with them not being extra cautious relying on only surface temps while ignoring the science...Thoughts my good Sir?

I totally agree with you and Troy. I actually have known Troy a long time and he's a very good meteorologist and has seen/forecasted many, many winter weather events in these parts. He knows his stuff!

Yeah TexasF6, I was quite surprised this morning to see EWX ramping down the advisories/warnings, actually. Who knows, maybe they'll be right. They ARE the professionals. But when you go from a Winter Storm Warning to nothing, you better be seeing something which strongly suggests no threat. And I don't see it. I don't see it in the short-range models or in the radar returns or in the lowering dewpoints. We've always been on the cusp of the threat line and we still are. So why make such a drastic change?

Edit update: KXAN is reporting that sleet is now falling in Mason County.

Ok, I'm glad I'm not alone here. That really doesn't make sense to me based on what I'm seeing. My dew point is 28 degrees, and the current temperature is 38.1, so I'm going to expect some pretty significant wet bulb cooling once the rain gets here. How deep is the cold aloft? I can't find good information on that.

Cheers,
Cameron

[TexasF6]

Awesome thoughts Porta! I have known Troy since I was kid! He has always been an awesome presence on our wx scene! I had his classes too at HookEmVille as well. Do you see the massive low flattening a bit? Also, it looks to be tapping some MORE Pacific moisture from that tropical cluster of storms SW of Mexico?! I will report whatever comes out of the sky in a bit from this "line of mystery" approaching from the west......

[Portastorm]

Awesome thoughts Porta! I have known Troy since I was kid! He has always been an awesome presence on our wx scene! I had his classes too at HookEmVille as well. Do you see the massive low flattening a bit? Also, it looks to be tapping some MORE Pacific moisture from that tropical cluster of storms SW of Mexico?! I will report whatever comes out of the sky in a bit from this "line of mystery" approaching from the west......

Alrightee then ... you da man!

Hey, TexasF6, I'm going to say right now that the precip shield immediately to our west and moving this way will yield some sleet for us in the metro area. It will NOT be all rain. Look at the strength of the returns/reflectivity! There's definitely some sleet in there.

[TexasF6]

I see all the yellows as well. You are right, as usual! Also, the intellicast radar is lightin up to our W & SW with activity......hmmmmmm......

[Portastorm]

I see all the yellows as well. You are right, as usual! Also, the intellicast radar is lightin up to our W & SW with activity......hmmmmmm......

Yep, and watch those surface temps begin to fall with a little more purpose once the precip starts due to wet-bulbing. I'm watching temps via the LCRA mesonet and surface temps around Johnson City dropped five degrees in an hour due to this precip shield. So ... I would expect to see mid 30s for the Austin area by 12 noon-ish. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Lubbock reports 10.5 inches of snow in the town of Happy in Swisher County. Folks it is taking a good 45 minutes to an hour for the moisture aloft to saturate the column. The guidance has totally missed the QPF (snow in Western Oklahoma). The issue is the guidance is suggesting a big warm up and that just isn't going to happen once the precip reaches the surface.