Texas Fall 2013

[Meteorcane]

NWS Lubbock reports 10.5 inches of snow in the town of Happy in Swisher County. Folks it is taking a good 45 minutes to an hour for the moisture aloft to saturate the column. The guidance has totally missed the QPF (snow in Western Oklahoma). The issue is the guidance is suggesting a big warm up and that just isn't going to happen once the precip reaches the surface.

Exactly even the 12z NAM was showing neglible precip over central oklahoma at this point.... take one look at radar/station obs/outside I can tell you that is not accurate, curiously the NAMS simulated reflectivity is actually fairly close to the actual reflectivity, however I assume the NAMS very dry mid-lower levels evaporated/sublimated that precip before reaching the ground.

[sooner101]

How long do you guys think it will take before this precip starts reaching the ground here in the metroplex?

[Dallasaggie01]

I'm in Richardson (N/NE Dallas in Collin County) and temps here have dropped from 34 to 32 in past 2 hours. We're already at freezing and I can't see more than an hour or so of rain before sleet/ice kick in.

Local mets are saying 4:00 for freezing precious but my guess is closer to 12-2:00.

[Portastorm]

Rain mixed with sleet now falling near New Braunfels per a storm report. Suspect we'll be seeing a lot more of those shortly.

[sooner101]

I'm here in carrollton, it's about 31 degrees. Just waiting for something to fall from the sky.

[Portastorm]

I'm getting word now that EWX is about to re-cast winter weather advisories and include the Austin metro area in a Winter Weather Advisory until Tuesday morning.

Heh ...

[TexasF6]

Oh Geee Porta?! I wonder WHY?

[TexasStorm]

Dare I say it appears DFW for the most part is going to get dry slotted on round 1.

[Tireman4]

I'm getting word now that EWX is about to re-cast winter weather advisories and include the Austin metro area in a Winter Weather Advisory until Tuesday morning.

Heh ...

Oh gosh, do not do it now. Not now. Let us have 1 or 2 inches on the ground, then hey, we hoist the flags ( I kid. EWX is trying...)

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the big picture water vapor imagery as well as radar and surface obs, we can see the U/L moving E as a strong short wave drops S into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains and heads SE.



There is also a strong disturbance riding ENE across Mexico from the Pacific where abundant moisture is streaming inland. I suspect the U/L will move into New Mexico and turn SE and cross Texas over the Hill Country before merging with a developing Coastal Low that current surface analysis depicts as a Coastal trough near Corpus Christi. After many years of watching Winter Weather events across Texas dating back to my memories in the mid 60’s going forward, any cold core upper low/trough crossing the State tends to be a forecasting nightmare and many a bust has happened, both as not being forecasted correct or too conservative as well as going overboard and nothing happening. It is time to focus on what is happening ‘real time’ and report those observations. Stay safe and let’s hope we do not see a widespread ice storm that would be a real mess from a societal standpoint.

[Portastorm]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
922 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...

.UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT
SLEET WILL MIX-IN WITH THE COLD RAIN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THROUGHOUT THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR.

TXZ173-191-192-206-242330-
/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-131126T1500Z/
WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...
NEW BRAUNFELS
922 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW FLURRIES...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT SLEET WILL MIX-IN WITH THE COLD RAIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED AND PETS
BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

TXZ171-172-183>190-242330-
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-131126T1500Z/
LLANO-BURNET-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO
922 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

* TIMING...LIGHT SLEET WILL MIX-IN WITH THE COLD RAIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED AND PETS
BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[Portastorm]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
932 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FARTHER EASTWARD
TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS PERSIST. LIGHT SLEET HAS BEGUN TO MIX-IN WITH THE COLD RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT AREAS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SLEET
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MINIMAL
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER
EXPOSED AND/OR RAISED AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
UPDATED. PLEASE REFER TO THE WSWEWX PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

&&

[northtxboy]

28 here in windom right now. was 29 at 7 this morning. sure am worried about this ice.. got the generator going this morning and the cows moved to be south pasture. Dont forget about your outside pets and livestock everyone!!!! i have a bad feeling its gonna get bad in windom.

[Longhornmaniac8]

AWOS at Burnet Municipal Airport is reporting "light snow." I suspect it's actually sleet, but it's there.

Cheers,
Cameron

[Portastorm]

By the way, here am I worried about my son out at Texas Tech as Lubbock got hit pretty hard last night. And I get this photo response with the tag "Party On." Sheesh ... college kids.



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[joshskeety]

lol.. Metroplex get dry slotted? Uhhh No.. heh

Been icing here in Parker county for almost a couple of hours and the big stuff is just getting here now..

This should be outa here by about 3-4ish, but I can already see the signs of the 2nd part of the storm, which is going to dumb a bunch of sleet on the Metroplex..

I would not suggest driving through the Metroplex today or tomorow.. Its getting the worst of this storm....

[joshskeety]

By the way, here am I worried about my son out at Texas Tech as Lubbock got hit pretty hard last night. And I get this photo response with the tag "Party On." Sheesh ... college kids.



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Until the weather, I was going to go kill some ducks.. Does that count?

[srainhoutx]

A lot of reports now coming in across the NWS San Angelo forecast area of freezing rain up to .25 inches accumulating on elevated surfaces.

[Ntxw]

According to radar and high reflectivity an area of light to moderate sleet should be falling in Mineral Wells at the moment, hard to actually verify without ground truth. Weatherford is next in line then likely Tarrant county a little over an hour. We'll need to get verification from posters out that way.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Waiting on that next plume of moisture to stream up from the ULL. Be safe out there guys