Texas Fall 2013

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Ntxw
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Re:

#1101 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 24, 2013 1:21 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Is there any chance of any wintry precipitation in Southeast Louisiana Tuesday night? I notice we have a good chance of rain Tuesday (100%) but I don't know when that rain is supposed to end. Our low for that night has gone from 37 to 35 so we are only 3 degrees away from hitting the freezing mark at the surface.


Currently nothing looks imminent for SE LA. Majority of it will be in NW LA. Perhaps Tuesday night as the upper low passes by a sleet pellet or something may occur but odds down that region are low at this time.
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katheria
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1102 Postby katheria » Sun Nov 24, 2013 1:32 pm

sleet rain combo

firewheel mall area george bush/hwy78
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1103 Postby Ellsey » Sun Nov 24, 2013 1:44 pm

Light rain and sleet in McKinney as well.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1104 Postby sooner101 » Sun Nov 24, 2013 2:32 pm

Steve McCauley mentioned that the NWS issued the winter storm warning because they think DFW will get 1 to 2 inches of sleet followed by 1 to 2 inches of snow. Steve says the Stat Method he uses doesn't see that coming, but he's not too confident in the Stat Method yet. Can anyone follow up on any of this?
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1105 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Nov 24, 2013 2:54 pm

18Z NAM rolling in. Appears to have picked up on a possible earlier onsite of precip. Around midnight tonight instead of 3-6 AM like earlier runs & other models have shown.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1106 Postby TrekkerCC » Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:02 pm

sooner101 wrote:Steve McCauley mentioned that the NWS issued the winter storm warning because they think DFW will get 1 to 2 inches of sleet followed by 1 to 2 inches of snow. Steve says the Stat Method he uses doesn't see that coming, but he's not too confident in the Stat Method yet. Can anyone follow up on any of this?


Well - I don't have access to Steve's statistical model (or what he has developed on his own) - however, in general terms, there might be two problems with the forecast.

Temperatures - Temperatures might struggle to get below freezing and stay there. Some places in the DFW area (according to the wunderground personal stations) are below freezing, but the city locations are still above freezing. If temperatures stay above freezing (don't wet bulb down), then while it might sleet (since the atmosphere is/will be cold enough), then it will not freeze. Likely with the next batch being more significant, this will not be a problem, that we will wetbulb and cool generally down below freezing. The temps might not get down into the 20s (if it got down to the 20s - more significant problems would result), but temps might hover around 30F or 31F (barring unexpected events) and in the morning it will at least stay around freezing I think while the precipitation stay around. However, it is likely to rise in the afternoon as the precipitation ends. Now, the Canadian Model is showing Surface Low development that would allow more cold air to filter in from the north, temperatures could get colder than forecast (into 20s), but this is unlikely possibility at the moment.

Precipitation - Precipitation will likely more of a problem - models are coming up a bit drier around the area. Instead of a inch+ of precipitation in previous model runs, we are getting around an 1.00" of sleet/freezing rain on latest runs. Whatever method Steve is using might be cluing him into this fact - still an inch of sleet or freezing rain would be significant - but it might be less than expected. We won't really know until the event starts to occur tonight on how my moisture is going to filter in from the pacific and the gulf. We could over-perform here (matching previous predictions of 1.25" to 1.50" of sleet), but we could only have 0.75" to 1.00" of sleet or freezing rain - still significant - but not what was expected initially.

-There are my thoughts - I'm not a meteorologist and these are just amateur observations.

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#1107 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:20 pm

Personally, i dont think moisture is ever a problem. With the Gulf being warm still, the Pacific as well, i dont think it will be an issue. It may take quite a while to moisten the column though. In east Texas once under a similar situation it took hours. Eventually the moisture will fall though.

Getting darker here in SL and temp is falling (50.0F). Dewpoint is dropping still and is down to 34F
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1108 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:32 pm

I'm really not sure what to think. Steve may be right, but I don't think we'll know for sure until it's all said and done. People here seemed rather underwhelmed with the first band of precip, but I dont think that was it for the first round. There are some light returns showing up and trying to expand west and southwest of the metroplex. I may be wrong, but that seems to me like a pretty good indication of the atmosphere continuing to moisten up. It's all pretty meager for the time being, but it looks like there's a decent band approaching the Brownwood area from the southwest.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1109 Postby sooner101 » Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:38 pm

:uarrow: Is the precip showing up in southwest Texas the precip expected to move in overnight? I've come to realization that you just have to wait it out, but I am pretty anxious to see how it unfolds. When we had our DFW snowstorm in Feb. of 2011, we were only forcasted for a few inches I believe. Also, the winter (2010?) we got sleet, temps into the low teens and 6 inches of dry fluffy snow one night. We weren't supposed to get that much snow but we did, and I remember watching it unfold on the radar.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1110 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:45 pm

sooner101 wrote::uarrow: Is the precip showing up in southwest Texas the precip expected to move in overnight? I've come to realization that you just have to wait it out, but I am pretty anxious to see how it unfolds. When we had our DFW snowstorm in Feb. of 2011, we were only forcasted for a few inches I believe. Also, the winter (2010?) we got sleet, temps into the low teens and 6 inches of dry fluffy snow one night. We weren't supposed to get that much snow but we did, and I remember watching it unfold on the radar.
No. The stuff coming in from the Southwest is its own entity. Probably a really minor area of lift that will also help the saturation occur. The stuff coming in tonight will develop right over Central/North Texas. Things should really take off overnight, sometime after the ULL takes its SEly turn towards TX.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1111 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:01 pm

Lucy's laughing... :)
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#1112 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:09 pm

The main is event is tonight as the upper level low digs out of New Mexico. A large shield of precipitation will expand northeastward from the Rio Grande Valley and trans-pecos region. The heaviest qpf from this shield is expected to run from roughly Kerrville-Waco-Texarkana line, likely a lot of freezing rain and sleet in this region. Further north and west will depend on movement of mesoscale features, if it expands further there will likely be heavier sleet/snow/freezing rain for that area. This will last on to about mid-morning Monday depending on your location.

Beyond that we watch the upper low itself as it dives southeast through the hill country. If it takes on a more neutral/negative tilt the more likely it will pull back moisture in a mini-trowal for light snow. If that were to happen it would be overnight Monday/Tuesday morning.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1113 Postby newtotex » Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:15 pm

What's it looking like for Denton and north DFW
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#1114 Postby sooner101 » Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:16 pm

NWS expecting that batch of precip to move northeast towards DFW, which will give us some help.
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#1115 Postby ndale » Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:54 pm

I am not sure what EWX is doing. For my point forecast here on the north side of Austin, they have been adding or taking away rain/sleet for different times from now thru Monday with some snow flurries shown for Monday night. Now they just took away any frozen precip for Monday night and all of it ending by 9 am tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1116 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:55 pm

Do the models indicate that it will push up to the Wichita Falls area? Once again the local mets are all over the place with forecasts regarding potential moisture type and amounts. From what I gather by their forecasts moisture will be minimal but I was wondering what the models are actually showing at this point.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1117 Postby katheria » Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:02 pm

think the best thing at this point is not to worry about it, go on with our day, night and get up in the morning and look outside :wall: :blowup:
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Re:

#1118 Postby ndale » Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:04 pm

ndale wrote:I am not sure what EWX is doing. For my point forecast here on the north side of Austin, they have been adding or taking away rain/sleet for different times from now thru Monday with some snow flurries shown for Monday night. Now they just took away any frozen precip for Monday night and all of it ending by 9 am tomorrow.


Now I see what they are doing, they have us right on the edge of any snow flurries for Monday night, if I check the west area of town it shows snow, if I go a mile to the east it doesn't.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1119 Postby ludosc » Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:13 pm

katheria wrote:think the best thing at this point is not to worry about it, go on with our day, night and get up in the morning and look outside :wall: :blowup:


Pfft...yeah right. I know I won't be the one staying up waiting for it to come through.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013

#1120 Postby katheria » Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:14 pm

ludosc wrote:
katheria wrote:think the best thing at this point is not to worry about it, go on with our day, night and get up in the morning and look outside :wall: :blowup:


Pfft...yeah right. I know I won't be the one staying up waiting for it to come through.



me either LOL, work calls tomorrow i bet and ill know at 5am what it looks like outside heheh

now whats for dinner??? :P
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