Texas Fall 2013

[sooner101]

Is any precip at all a bust? Or are we still expecting some kind of precip to fall?

[SouthernMet]

Already a Moderate-Heavy band from San Angelo to Abilene

[iorange55]

Is any precip at all a bust? Or are we still expecting some kind of precip to fall?

Believe they are still expecting the precipitation. It looks like they are thinking most of the temperatures around here will be above freezing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is any precip at all a bust? Or are we still expecting some kind of precip to fall?

Believe they are still expecting the precipitation. It looks like they are thinking most of the temperatures around here will be above freezing.

The dewpoints are still low though right? Temp will fall rapidly with the rain. It dropped 5 degrees here and it was only sprinkling.

Rain southwest of San Antonio too. It will begin to fill in.

[Texas Snowman]

While it remains to be seen what will - or will not - happen overnight, I think it's important in the weather community to remember that perception is sometimes "greater" than reality.

At least where public perception is concerned.

Take this Examiner.com headline for example:

Dallas area braces for worst November winter storm in 20 years

(BTW, here's the link: http://www.examiner.com/article/dallas- ... m-20-years)

Given the modeling last week, a lot of local TV mets were chirping about this storm and its potential. This board was buzzing about this storm. Even Facebook was - ahem - a twitter about it.

And when we were placed under a Winter Storm Warning and the NWS put up those graphics showing where and when things "would" happen, I think most of the public bought into the idea that a big ticket winter storm was coming.

That may not have been what was SAID by TV mets and the NWS but I think it was what was HEARD by the general public.

Which is why I think my Facebook feed has been full of questions all day asking "Where is the snow and ice?"

Just my .02 cents worth.

[Texas Snowman]

And here it is...

"‏@wfaaweather -- Alert...Alert!!! The WARNING officially been downgraded to an Advisory."

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Is any precip at all a bust? Or are we still expecting some kind of precip to fall?

Believe they are still expecting the precipitation. It looks like they are thinking most of the temperatures around here will be above freezing.

The dewpoints are still low though right? Temp will fall rapidly with the rain. It dropped 5 degrees here and it was only sprinkling.

Rain southwest of San Antonio too. It will begin to fill in.

From what I am reading, there is a warm layer in the mid level atmosphere that will make the difference. In Richardson, I'm still at 33 degrees and 74% humidity.

[gboudx]

Yep just got the text msg.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm afraid we're moving into the "Nothing to see here folks, move along" phase of this storm.

I didn't want freezing rain, but I was hoping to see some sleet and snow.

Maybe after Thanksgiving.

[gboudx]

I can remember this happening at least one time in the 17 years I've lived here. The forecast was for sleet and snow but a deep warm nose developed and it was a cold rain. We'll have to wait and see what happens this time but I'd rather a cold rain over ice.

[sooner101]

What are the long range models showing for our next possible winter storm
?

[Longhornmaniac8]

Am I wrong in still feeling like Austin is going to get a decent event?

[downsouthman1]

Even though everyone is jumping off this storm, I am concerned. The temps upstream from me & within 5 miles to my west is 32 & has been falling all day. Any precip that falls will cause problems. I'm still thinking, as I did yesterday & the day before, that the bulk of the precip will be central Texas, not north.

[TrekkerCC]

What are the long range models showing for our next possible winter storm
?

On the GFS, there is hints at an arctic blast around the beginning of December (first or second week). Even the run I saw showed some snow (very light) in North Texas. There is likely to be other threats in December if arctic air continues to filter down and the sub-tropical jet remains active.

[Longhornmaniac8]

My temperature is down to 33.6 and continues to fall slowly but steadily. Dew point is 29, so I'm expecting once the precipitation rolls in, we'll wet bulb our way down below freezing at the surface.

Is there a place where we can see the sounding data?

[cheezyWXguy]

What are the long range models showing for our next possible winter storm
?

On the GFS, there is hints at an arctic blast around the beginning of December (first or second week). Even the run I saw showed some snow (very light) in North Texas. There is likely to be other threats in December if arctic air continues to filter down and the sub-tropical jet remains active.

That wouldn't be the first run to show it either. It seems that over the past few days the models have been hinting at something in that timeframe.

[TexasF6]

My temperature is down to 33.6 and continues to fall slowly but steadily. Dew point is 29, so I'm expecting once the precipitation rolls in, we'll wet bulb our way down below freezing at the surface.

Is there a place where we can see the sounding data?

Here is sounding data:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13112500_OBS/

[bigddstranny]

32.2 in Cedar Park.

[dhweather]

It's a bust for us. Sad we had winter storm watches and warnings , tons of hype for practically nothing. Maybe I'm proven wrong tomorrow, but I doubt it.

[TwisterFanatic]

RAP not showing much for Texas tonight as far as snowfall. Some trace amounts scattered around.