Texas Fall 2013

[downsouthman1]

There's a nice thunderprecip band developing out west & new stuff developing behind that out near Fort Stockton.

[Tireman4]

I will say this. Texas winters are hard to predict. Winter precipitation is even harder. I think we will be going around this bend a couple of more times before winter is out. By the way, this is Fall.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

that thin line of storms has come together, lets see if it expands

[downsouthman1]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... oth=0&MR=1

Look what the ULL is creating!

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... oth=0&MR=1

For you NTX folks.

[sooner101]

From Steve McCauley's facebook page:

Steve McCauley: Now that the National Weather Service has canceled the Winter Storm Warning, we are seeing a nice flare-up of "thundersleet" to our west moving in this direction

Again, just because the Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory, that means we will still see a wintry mix of sleet and pockets of freezing rain across parts of north Texas tonight into Monday morning.

Plus, if we can continue to get a lightning strike or two out of these echoes to the west, that could help transition the sleet to snow in localized areas!

[aggiecutter]

Ice forming on the trees and power lines in Texarkana.

[iorange55]

Ice forming on the trees and power lines in Texarkana.

Not surprising. I think the ice might be worse than they think, but I wouldn't mind being wrong.

[orangeblood]

Everyone still needs to be patient with this one, the NCEP HRRR model's last couple of runs are really starting to enhance the precip coverage across North Texas, starting around 4-5am. Some areas approaching almost a 0.50 inches of precip by 10am tomorrow morning. It's very very difficult for these models to pick up on all the embedded shortwaves, especially during todays runs when they were rounding the base of the ULL out in Mexico

[KeriCarter]

Ice forming on the trees and power lines in Texarkana.

Ice here on the Arkansas side of Texarkana as well. Mainly on branches and other elevated surfaces. Good to see another Orangeblood here

[Annie Oakley]

From Steve McCauley's facebook page:

Steve McCauley: Now that the National Weather Service has canceled the Winter Storm Warning, we are seeing a nice flare-up of "thundersleet" to our west moving in this direction

Again, just because the Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory, that means we will still see a wintry mix of sleet and pockets of freezing rain across parts of north Texas tonight into Monday morning.

Plus, if we can continue to get a lightning strike or two out of these echoes to the west, that could help transition the sleet to snow in localized areas!

Love that term "thundersleet" . That has to be a new Texas weather slang thing lol.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Everyone still needs to be patient with this one, the NCEP HRRR model's last couple of runs are really starting to enhance the precip coverage across North Texas, starting around 4-5am. Some areas approaching almost a 0.50 inches of precip by 10am tomorrow morning. It's very very difficult for these models to pick up on all the embedded shortwaves, especially during todays runs when they were rounding the base of the ULL out in Mexico

But what about temperature profiles?

[RedRiverRefuge]

Ice forming on the trees and power lines in Texarkana.

Also north of Bonham in far northern Fannin Co on the Red River from that last batch that just rolled through. Forecast seems to still be at .20 max ice which is great news for one that lives in the middle of the forest.

[orangeblood]

Everyone still needs to be patient with this one, the NCEP HRRR model's last couple of runs are really starting to enhance the precip coverage across North Texas, starting around 4-5am. Some areas approaching almost a 0.50 inches of precip by 10am tomorrow morning. It's very very difficult for these models to pick up on all the embedded shortwaves, especially during todays runs when they were rounding the base of the ULL out in Mexico

But what about temperature profiles?

With dew points still in the mid 20's, there is plenty of room for a temperature drop of 3-4 degrees F putting quite a few areas across North Texas below freezing.

[aggiecutter]

0z GFS has QPF of around 1.25" inches for the Texarkana area. With a temperature of 32 and a dewpoint of 26, things could get dicey around here before its over.

[mmbrown10]

Hey guys!

i have been following you guys for a while all through college really interested in weather glad to be a part of the winter weather fun as well!!!
i have been following weather since i was a little kid and especially winter weather! i believe it was 2010 after snow megadon! we had a snow storm hit just Collin county and brought 8-9 inches of snow after only predicting a trace amount crazy storm . i know that this is now that type of event but i feel like the model just don't have a good grasp of what is happening!

have a couple question is there more moisture behind just this one line?
and if temperature profile are colder than what is expected do you believe that this could be what we were expecting?

thanks guys by the way name is Matt!

[Brandon8181]

Just south of Tyler, TX currently 33 degrees getting freezing rain with maybe a tiny bit of sleet mixed in.

[wxman57]

Still looks like a sleet/freezing rain profile for Dallas/Ft. Worth with low-mid 40s between 850mb and 700mb (5000-10,000ft). I sure miss summer. Give me 100 degrees over weather like today's or tomorrow's any day...

Dallas/Ft. Worth Sounding from the Rapid Update Cycle model, valid midnight tonight:
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/RAP_255_2013112503_F03_33.0000N_97.0000W.png

[TwisterFanatic]

Just south of Tyler, TX currently 33 degrees getting freezing rain with maybe a tiny bit of sleet mixed in.

It's not Freezing Rain if it's 33.

[mmbrown10]

hopefully the line of moisture grows and expands, also still may have a chance of moisture once the ULL gets closer

[sooner101]

Precip looks to be getting filled out on the radar, and I see more precip popping up in northern Mexico!!