Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI but moisture increases by Monday as a weak trough moves thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST SUN NOV 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. A GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS WEST
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 1.4 INCHES. THIS LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND A RELATIVELY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...BUT DEFINITELY WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND USVI ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY. THEN...A MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LIMITING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND ALL
TAF SITES DURG NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. WIND ENE 10-15 KT BLO FL200...BCMG FM W AND INCR W/HT
ABV WITH 55 KTS WND MAX NR FL400.SFC WNDS LGT/VRB TO CALM TIL
24/14Z...THEN FM E TO NE BTW 10 TO 20 KTS DURG REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE INCREASED OVER BUOY 41043 NORTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN TO 9 FEET. NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL ARRIVE TO OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 74 / 10 20 20 40
STT 86 75 87 77 / 20 20 30 50

[Macrocane]

3rd cold surge if the season has arrived to Central America this morning, temperatures this morning have been cooler than yesterday and the winds are on the increase. A much stronger event is expected to start on Wednesday:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BY TO THE E OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
CHIVELA PASS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FUNNELING FROM THE SW GULF THROUGH THE PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO GALE FORCE...WITH RESULTANT SEAS UP
TO 13 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE MON...THEN WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 00Z
TUE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH A MAXIMUM OF 14-15 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 10N86W TO 07N94W TO
12N110W TO 08N121W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N121W TO 10N130W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 83W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND FAR NW MEXICO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
TROUGH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REMNANT SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW
TO N SWELL LINGER WELL SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1007 MB LOW PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR
34N143W TO 28N146W. ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE LOW WILL
REMAIN N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS WHILE FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE
BREACHED THE FAR NW CORNER W OF A LINE FROM 30N138W TO 16N140W.
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE IN THE DISCUSSION
WATERS BY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 17N113W TO 12N114W TO 08N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 17N114W TO
11N120W TO 07N117W TO 11N109W TO 17N110W TO 17N114W. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGHING AND BUILDING HIGH PRES
TO THE N WILL CREATE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
...AS WELL AS JUST INLAND ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST...
WITH PINCHED RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
SEAS TO 8 FT WILL SET UP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO
30N BY MON NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT
WILL LIKELY COMMENCE LATE TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT.
GLOBAL MODEL WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE
WED MORNING AND REACH STRONG GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY WED...AND
COULD REACH 45-50 KT LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ASPECT OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE THE LONG DURATION OF GALE
FORCE WINDS...A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED STRETCH OF GALE
CONDITIONS HOWLING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY
WED THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The moisture will increase late tonight and on Monday in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands as a weak trough moves by.For the rest of this week good weather will prevail to have a great thanksgiving day.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN NOV 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A FEW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...BRINGING THE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN. TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS AS WELL AS LOCAL
SOUNDING DATA HAVE SHOWED BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...EXCEPT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO WHERE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS OBSERVED. THIS
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT
AND A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. GOOD
VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE INFLOW OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THEN
MOISTURE AND STABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...A MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...PROMOTING A STABLE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
PERSIST MOST OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT BRIEF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD -SHRA THRU 25/06Z BUT THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE USVI AND ERN PR. HAVE ADDED
VCTS FOR USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND FOR ALL OF PR
TERMINALS AFTER 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT NEAR-SHORE BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN
HAVE INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS. THESE
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THEN...THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER PULSE
OF NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND PROBABLY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY BY
MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 85 / 10 60 40 40
STT 75 87 77 87 / 50 50 50 50

[Macrocane]

The observations of the 2nd cold surge if the season in Central America are already available http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2358732#p2358732

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will be the norm today in PR and VI as a weak trough moves thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST MON NOV 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS RIDGE MOVES OVER
PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS. A TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT ITS PEAK IT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE MID
LEVEL DRYING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IT
WEAKENS AND REFORMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A BRIEF AND MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A BAND OF MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA IN TRADE WIND FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS IT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST COOLER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED NORTH AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
BETWEEN 7 AND 20 MILES...MAINLY OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. MORE AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR MOVING TOWARD THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ALSO WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS
INTERSPERSED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THAT WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GFS...MODELS BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE FORMING NORTH OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND 400 MB WEDNESDAY THAT WILL SEND CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR AT THOSE LEVELS INTO THE AREA EVEN AS A WEAK BUT SHARP
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A VIGOROUS LOW NEAR 30 NORTH 40 WEST SWEEPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
SHALLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISHING.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. THESE SHOWERS ALSO...HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
LIMITED DEPTH AND YIELD ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL SITES BUT CHC MVFR
TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK EARLY MORNING HOURS IN SHRA. DEEPER MOISTURE TO
PASS PR/USVI TODAY...PSBL SHRA/TSRA AT TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ IN THE
AFT/EVE. WINDS FROM SFC UP TO FL150 E SE AT 5-10 KT...BCMG 15-25
KT TONITE/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL DROPS
OFF. BUOY 41043 SHOWED LESS THAN 7 FEET AT 5 PM AST. HOWEVER
ANOTHER SET OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING AND PUSH THROUGH THE PASSAGES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING WINDS WAVES TO INCREASE IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN MID WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT MOST PROTECTED WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT
ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 73 / 60 40 40 40
STT 86 76 87 76 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. In general good weather will prevail in PR and VI on Thanksgiving day and on most of the week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON NOV 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH EARLY
FRI THEN BREAK DOWN AS ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAPID DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHES BEHIND DEPARTING TROF. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WED AND THANSKGIVING DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TRADES. SHARP DRYING OCCURS AGAIN FRI UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SW ATLC INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH SHOWERS RETURNING FOR SUN
AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ALREADY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK UNDER BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS ALSO
STREGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH WED ALSO CREATING CONFUSED SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 85 / 10 10 10 10
STT 76 87 76 86 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather prevails in PR and VI today with only a few showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST TUE NOV 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
TODAY. RIDGING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HAS BEGUN AND WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN PULL BACK TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DECREASES TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ACCOMPANYING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS
INCREASED GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BRINGING INCREASED WINDS
TO THE AREA. AREAS OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN TRADE WIND
FLOW. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY. LARGE SWELL WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SURF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEWER SHOWERS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A HEAVY
SHOWER DID BRING OVER ONE HALF INCH TO PARTS OF CEIBA AND NAGUABO.
MOST COASTAL AREAS FROM ARECIBO TO FAJARDO RECEIVED MEASURABLE
RAIN...AS DID SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE OVER MARINE ZONES.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER LAST 24 HOURS...AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHARP MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWN MOVING THROUGH IS NOW
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. MOISTURE
IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY...BUT THE GFS ALSO SHOWS RISING
STABILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE THIS WEEK AND NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ARE EXPECTED OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TJBQ AND TJSJ
THROUGH AT LEAST 26/12Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. SHRA OVER WESTERN PR WILL BEGIN ARND
26/17Z WITH ISOLD TSRA PSBL AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SEAS RISING TO AS MUCH AS 8 FEET
AND BREAKING WAVES ALONG SHORES WITH NORTHERN EXPOSURES IN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REACHING 11 TO 13 FEET
BY WEDNESDAY. BUOYS 41048 TO THE NORTH REACHED 19 FEET...BUOY 41047 14.5
FEET AND BUOY 41046 IS NOW APPEARING TO PEAK AT 14.5 FEET. THIS
LATTER SWELL COULD REACH PUERTO RICO AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A HEIGHT AROUND 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 76 / 10 30 30 30
STT 86 76 86 77 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST TUE NOV 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRI THEN FLATTEN AS POLAR TROUGH EXITS THE ERN US AND
PROPAGATES ACROSS THE ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STREGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL FAVOR CLOUD CLUSTERS
AND FAST MOVING SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI WITH
SHARP DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASICALLY INHIBITING
ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY FRI NIGHT AS POLAR
TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE
CAP AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT MAY BE EVEN UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL FAVOR CLOUD CLUSTERS
AND FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ARRIVE AT BUOY 41043 AND WILL
TAKE ABOUT 8 HOURS TO ARRIVE AT THE COAST. HIGH SURF AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 76 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 76 86 77 86 / 10 10 40 40

[Macrocane]

A strong cold front has just started to enter Central America, strong winds and cold temperatures are expected from Wednesday through Saturday

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Typical weather for this time of the year will prevail in PR and VI with trade wind showers moving thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT ONLY WEAKLY. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS IN
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SAG SOUTH
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND FORM AN EAST WEST RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL APPEAR OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A LOW DEEPENS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS FROM THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BRINGING BRIEF HEAVY TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...HEAVY
SHOWERS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST MOVED RAPIDLY THROUGH EASTERN
PUERTO RICO BRINGING ALMOST THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SAN JUAN
AND PARTS OF NAGUABO AS OF 5 PM AST. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF DURING THE MORNING...BUT INFRA RED IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TIME MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WILL
ALSO RECEIVE SOME RAIN...BUT CHANCES ARE LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS DUE TO INCREASE WINDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL KEEP PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK BOUNDARY OF AN OLD FRONT NO LONGER
REACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT A BAND OF MOISTURE FORMS TO THE
SOUTH AND MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE GFS SHOWS A LOW LAUNCHING OFF THE
GULF STREAM AND MOVING TO NEAR 32 NORTH 60 WEST BY THURSDAY
DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THIS WOULD BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE THURSDAY AFTER NEXT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS PLACE AT THAT TIME FOR A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION. AT
THIS POINT...UNTIL THE LOW IN THE GULF STREAM FORMS...THE GFS
SOLUTION LOOKS LESS LIKELY AND WILL HOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
NORTHERLY FLOW THEN AS PER ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TJBQ
AND TJSJ WITH VCSH AND SHRA FOR CIGS AND VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHOWERS. PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 8.9 AND 10.8
FEET OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN TODAY. SEAS IN LOCAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 7 FEET WITH HIGH SURF ALONG THE COASTS
WITH NORTHERN EXPOSURE. WILL NOT EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
BEYOND 6 PM AST TODAY...BUT SHOULD LATER DATA SHOW SWELL
LINGERING...IT MAY BE NECESSARY. THE WAVE WATCH SHOWS SEAS
LOWERING LATER IN THE WEEK BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY UNTIL AS LATE AS SATURDAY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WHEN ANOTHER PULSE COMES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 83 75 / 40 50 50 50
STT 86 76 87 78 / 40 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH FRI THEN BREAK
DOWN FRI NIGHT AS POLAR TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO PULL AWAY MON.

&&

..DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH TPW
EXTENDING FROM ERN PR TO THE EAST OF 60W. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUD CLUSTERS AND SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ST. CROIX AND THEN OVER THE USVI
AND PR ON THANKSGIVING DAY. VERY DRY AND STABLE FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE. SHOWERS THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FRI
NIGHT AND SAT ACROSS THE USVI...CARIBBEAN SEA AND ERN PR AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROF FROM THE WEST. UNSETTLED WX WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE RISK OF DAILY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS ERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH BUT FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. WINDS
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY SUN AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OVR THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 75 85 / 20 50 50 50
STT 76 87 78 85 / 40 50 40 40

[Macrocane]

Strong winds and cool temperatures have been registered today in Central America, you can see the strong cold front in this recent image:



GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45-55 KT ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14N95.5W AND ARE SURROUNDED BY GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-45 KT
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO
12N97W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SOON MAX AT ABOUT 24 FT IN THE AREA
OF STORM CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU MORNING...
THEREFORE THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND THE
CORRESPONDING GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STRONG GALE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT WITH PULSES TO MINIMAL GALE
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL
MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...
RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05-14N
BETWEEN 93-107W BY LATE THU. THE AREA OF NE-E SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE W WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 93W-
115W BY LATE FRI.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

LAST NO AMENDS...NEXT BULLETIN ON DECEMBER 02.

DISCUSSION FROM NOVEMBER 27/00UTC: A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN USA TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AS IT PUSHES EAST...THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST
A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH 24 HRS. BY 36-60 HRS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AS TROUGH TO THE WEST LIFTS OVER THIS AXIS...
AND BY 72 HRS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. AT LOW
LEVELS...ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST/CENTRAL
BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA TO ROATAN/NORTHERN HONDURAS EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. BY 36-72 HRS THE FRONT IS TO THEN STALL ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS-CUBA... WHILE THE TRAILING END SLOWLY RETROGRESSES TO THE
EASTERN YUCATAN/BELIZE. LATER IN THE CYCLE FRONT RETROGRESSES TO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FRONTAL NORTHERLIES OF 25-30KT ARE TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
WINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 78-84 HRS. FURTHERMORE...AS
THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS CUBA/THE BAHAMAS...IT WILL SUSTAIN A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND A SHEAR LINE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE SHEAR
LINE BECOMES ILL DEFINED THROUGH 36-48 HRS...WHILE THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH 72-96 HRS.

ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THE FRONT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH 36 HRS. THROUGH 72-84
HRS THIS WILL DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY.
ACROSS CUBA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
AT 36-60 HRS. LESSER AMOUNTS ON DAY 03...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING SCENARIO. AT 36-60 HRS THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
25-50MM...AND BY 60-96 HRS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS...UNDER ECHO TRAINING
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 150-250MM THROUGH 36 HRS. AT 36-84 HRS IT IS TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS LATER ON DAY 04. SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH 36-48 HRS. OVER
JAMAICA...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH 36-48 HRS.

FURTHERMORE...AS THE NORTHERLIES SURGE ACROSS NICARAGUA...THEY ARE
TO PEAK AT 40-45KT. THIS IS TO QUICKLY DRIVE THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ITCZ SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA...WHILE ACTIVITY ON THE CAUCA/CAUCA VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS TO INCREASE. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM THROUGH 36-48 HRS...WHILE OVER SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH
60-72 HRS.

AT 500 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 30N 60W IS TO ANCHOR A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT UNDER PRESSURE
FROM POLAR TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC THE
RIDGE IS TO RAPIDLY ERODE BY 72-96 HRS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
SUSTAIN A CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES INTO THE LEEWARD/FRENCH ISLES. AT LOW LEVELS IT
REFLECTS AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS SUSTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE ENSUING 850 HPA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 20-25KT ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LATER ON DAY 03...AS
THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN...EASTERLY TRADES DECREASE TO 10-15KT.
MEANWHILE...THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR GENERATION OF
TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

A TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
EVOLVING POLAR TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS TO
DISPLACE THIS AXIS EAST AND SOUTH INTO VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN
GUIANAS THROUGH 60-72 HRS. THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC
ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLES...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM THROUGH 36-42 HRS. ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN GUYANA/SURINAME...AS ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN...IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH 36 HRS. AT 36-84 HRS THIS DECREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FURTHERMORE...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HOLDS...IT IS TO SHEAR A
VORTEX FROM THE MEANDERING UPPER TROUGH...WITH INVERTED MID/LOW
LEVEL TROUGH TO GRADUALLY RETROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES. THROUGH 36 HRS THIS VORTEX MOVES ACROSS PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLES...ENTERING HISPANIOLA BY 48 HRS. IT THEN PHASES
WITH POLAR TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY PUT A DENT ON SUBSIDENCE CAP
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES...ALLOWING FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLES TO PUERTO RICO IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10M/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ACROSS PUERTO RICO IT WILL RESULT
IN SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DA SILVA...CHN (BRASIL)
FEARON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[Macrocane]

Let's monitor the temperatures in Central America, these are the observations for November 26, 2013:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.2°C (59.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.0°C (44.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20.2°C (68.4°F) Coolest since April 7, 2013
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.9°C (49.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F) Coldest since September 1, 2013
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Baru volcano, Panama 13.4°C (56.1°F) Coldest since September 3, 2013

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34.0°C (93.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.7°C (71.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.4°C (91.9°F)
Baru volcano, Panama 23.0°C (75.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning and happy thanksgiving day to all the Caribbean and Central American friends. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST THU NOV 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW HAS PINCHED OFF JUST EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM
39 NORTH 29 WEST TO 30 NORTH 40 WEST AND THEN WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG TROUGH AND JET WILL PASS
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MID WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING SLOWLY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
SAG SOUTH AND DISSIPATE LEAVING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND.
TROUGHINESS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BE OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE MID
LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST BEHIND A
WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ABOUT 1800 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
FRIDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM THEN CROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
BERMUDA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN SWEEP THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AGAIN MOVED THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
THE AREA...BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SHOWERS
TRAVELED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS FAR AS
AGUADILLA...BUT GENERALLY STAYED WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE COAST.
MOST OF THE LOCAL OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SAINT CROIX ALSO HAD
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH UP TO ONE INCH IN A FEW PLACES. LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AIDED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST.

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS SHOWERS IN THE CUT-OFF LOW EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLAND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. HENCE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INCREASE OVER PUERTO
RICO AFTER ABOUT 28/14Z. FROM EXTRAPOLATED MOVEMENTS AND MODEL
RUNS OF NAM5 AND GFS...SHOWERS SHOULD END OR DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
AFTER 29/00Z. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND MOVE ACROSS US THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. BUT WINDS AT 700 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN
TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10
DEGREES NORTH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE STILL
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY IN THAT THE GFS
STILL DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND CARRIES IT OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33 NORTH 66
WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW FARTHER UP THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TO
SOUTHEAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DETERMINE IF
THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH...GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN...WOULD EXPECT BANDS OF
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS THAT MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS...HOWEVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES DISTANT AND LOW PRESSURE LOWERS GRADIENTS BETWEEN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL RECOVER
SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL
AIR MASS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TJBQ
AND TJSJ FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH...OCASSIONALLY STRONG...TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS
ROUGH TODAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.. AS GRADIENTS DIMINISH SEAS EVERYWHERE WILL DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL IMPROVE SOONER
ONCE SHOWERS GENERATED BY UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE PASSED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 74 / 50 60 50 40
STT 86 75 86 75 / 60 40 40 50

[Macrocane]

We have had this morning the coldest temperatures in northern Central America since March. The cold front is still strong and weel defined and has reached Costa Rica/Panama border.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Scattered showers will continue to move thru PR and VI for the rest of afternoon and tonight but Friday will be with mainly dry conditions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST THU NOV 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
SAGGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
BEGIN TO FILL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT DIPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RELOCATES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST BEHIND A
WEAKENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BUILD AND SPREAD
FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEAKLY SOUTHWEST OVER
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PULL FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
OVERALL PATTERN HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE REGION IN
THE PREVAILING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
BURSTS OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LESSER SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
CREATED BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS
AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING
REST OF THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN ADDITION THE UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THEY MOVE WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
AN OVERALL MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS EACH DAY BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA APPROACHING EASTERN PR TO TIST OTW
ISOLD/SCT ELSEWHERE. SOME OBSCD MTN TOPS AND TSRA WILL BE ISOLD AT MOST.
THESE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PERSIST INTO EVE THEN SHRA BCMG ISOLD/SCT OVERNITE
XCP NO WX TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS SFC-FL100 ENE 15-25 KT BCMG E-ENE
18-35 KTS THIS EVE INTO FRI.

&&
.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS NOW MAINLY DUE TO THE
FRESH TRADE WINDS UP TO 22 KT...AND THE OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY ACCOMPANYING THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS WIND GENERATED
SEAS AND DECAYING NNE SWELL ACTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 84 / 60 50 40 50
STT 75 86 75 86 / 60 40 50 50

[Macrocane]

The temperatures on November 27 2013, they were quiet cold in northern Central America some of them were the coldest since March/April:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 18.7°C (65.7°F) Coldest since April 7, 2013
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.9°C (55.2°F) Coldest since March 31, 2013
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.4°C (43.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.5°C (63.5°F) Coldest since March 30, 2013
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.3°C (48.7°F) Coldest in the station since April 27, 2013 and coldest in the country since May 1, 2013
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F) Coldest since August 26, 2013
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Baru volcano, Panama 13.8°C (56.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 24.6°C (76.3°F) Coolest since March 1, 2013
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.5°C (68.9°F) Coolest since September 13, 2013
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 16.5°C (61.7°F) Coolest since September 13, 2013
Zacapa, Guatemala 30.0°C (86.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.0°C (80.6°F) Coolest since September 21, 2013
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.4°C (59.7°F) Coldest since March 3, 2013
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F) Coolest since March 27, 2013
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F) Coolest since March 27, 2013
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.4°C (79.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Baru volcano, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)

Strongest Wind Gust:
Belize city, Belize 46 km/h (29 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 63 km/h (39 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 95 km/h (59 mph)
La Unión, El Salvador 70 km/h (44 mph)
Nueva Ocotepque, Honduras 63 km/h (39 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 47 km/h (29 mph)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 57 km/h (35 mph)

The strong winds caused some damages in the country with several fallen trees and power poles:

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will continue to move over PR and VI for the next few days as a trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN NEXT FEW AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF
U.S. EAST COAST...WEAKENING THE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. MOST ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVER SAINT THOMAS...WERE MORE THAN 1.3 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED
SINCE MIDNIGHT. OTHERS SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR TODAY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE...PROMISE TO KEEP GOOD
CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE AREA...EAST OF THE U.S EAST COAST. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTH...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH
INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUD ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO
TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 01/12Z. THEN...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL BLO FL100
UNTIL AT LEAST 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST
COASTAL WATERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 74 / 50 40 40 50
STT 85 74 85 76 / 40 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 AM AST SUN DEC 1 2013

.UPDATE...DECREASED SHOWERS/THUNDER TO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISABELLA AND BAYAMON SENSORS CORRELATE WITH 12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING IN SHOWING AROUND 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS
MORNING. OVERALL DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUGGEST THAT
SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF SHOWERS ARE DONE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER
SATELLITE CLEARLY SHOWS VALUES OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES LURKING AT THE
EAST END OF PR INTO USVI AND LESS DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS HAS
OCCURRED THERE. BELIEVE A SHORT TERM REBOUND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS IN ORDER AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL
PERHAPS MODERATE DOWNWARD A LITTLE BY THE 700-500 MB MESOSCALE
RIDGE JUST NORTH OF PR (AS SHOWN BY GFS) WHICH WAS LEFT BEHIND BY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STRONG EARLY SUNSHINE AND HELP FROM THE 500
MB TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE ISLAND WILL INCREASE CLOUDS THE
REST OF TODAY. THIS TROUGH...CURRENTLY AT WEST END OF PR...WILL
CROSS THE ISLAND PROBABLY A LITTLE LATE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION VERY
MUCH AND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS
ESPECIALLY LATE.

[cycloneye]

It has been a rather wet Caribbean in some areas and this includes Cuba where deadly floods occurred on November 30th.

HAVANA -- Two people are dead from torrential rains that lashed Cuba for more than 24 hours, island authorities said Saturday.

The deluge caused multiple collapses in dwellings in Havana, Communist Party newspaper Granma reported. A man and a woman were killed in one structure that caved in.

Yunior Amesa, nephew of the deceased man, told The Associated Press he had left for work just before their building came down.

"It was raining very hard and there was a lot of weight (from the water) up there. They went to bed. Minutes before, I was sitting in there," Amesa said. "When I went to work I heard the building had collapsed and caught them both sleeping."

The rain arrived early Friday and fell near constantly throughout the day. Traffic snarled and some cars were stranded, as intersections flooded and streets turned into rushing rivers.

Cuba's Meteorological Institute recorded 2.8 inches (72 millimeters) of precipitation during a single three-hour period in the afternoon in Havana, and accumulations of up to 7.8 inches (200 millimeters) overnight.

Rain continued to fall in the capital early Saturday, and the famed seaside Malecon boulevard remained closed because of high surf that was breaking over the seawall and onto the street.

Granma said the area affected ranged from the western province of Artemisa to Ciego de Avila in the central part of the country.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/11/30/3 ... rains.html