WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

As for the peak intensity, comparing the flight in Megi to the satellite signature in Haiyan, I'm going with 180 kt (a few hours before landfall).

Tip had a much larger RMW, and was higher in latitude at the time (around 20-25N I believe). It's why Andrew with a pressure of 922 had similar or stronger winds as Katrina, with a pressure of 902.

Also looking at Google Earth and elevation maps and photos, the surge in Tacloban was likely about 22 feet.

[HurricaneBill]

I hope Stormstrike is OK. More than 2 weeks later and we still haven't heard from him.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hope Stormstrike is OK. More than 2 weeks later and we still haven't heard from him.

He said he is from Tacloban. Electricity is said to return in 2 months or more. I hope his family is fine together with him!

[Meow]

JMA will release the best track data of Typhoon Haiyan in December. Let us see if the final result will be still 125kt or break the ceiling of Dvorak technique.

We still have to wait five months for JTWC's final best track data.

[Alyono]

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1782266738

death toll expected to rise. Read another report that the current 5240 does NOT include nearly 1800 unidentified bodies from Tacloban

[Alyono]

http://inagist.com/all/405464776500711424/

5500 now

[HurricaneBill]

Just out of curiosity, what were the highest rainfall totals from Haiyan?

[dexterlabio]

The official death count will just be an estimate IMO. A lot of cadavers have been buried by people who grew impatient waiting for authorities to retrieve them. Officials do not include those already buried by the residents. They count what their retrieval units have in their hands.


I wonder if they already removed the huge ship that ransacked a block of houses in Leyte. Even the US rehabilitation volunteers are having a hard time planning to remove the ship. The ship needs to be dragged hundreds of meters to bring it back to the shoreline so they have to dismember it. Families are believed to be trapped under that ship, by the way...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just out of curiosity, what were the highest rainfall totals from Haiyan?

Surigao City got 281.9 mm of rainfall in less than 12 hours.

[HurricaneBill]

Footage of storm surge in Tacloban City:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spcJE3qmRWM[/youtube]

An ABS-CBN news team, including correspondent Atom Araullo, helps rescue people from the storm surge:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj9mFbNySWo[/youtube]

[Alyono]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/statu ... 60/photo/1

here is a map from TWCs Michael Lowry showing where the peak winds of Haiyan occurred

Fortunately, Tacloban did NOT get the peak winds. Thus, the winds there were likely below the cat 5 threshold (maybe cat 3 winds).

I can only suspect that is why some were able to be rescued during the tidal surge. Had the strongest winds have occurred there, I dont think those videos of rescues during the surge would have been possible. I believe Norcross when he was in Tanauan said he could not determine what damage was wind or surge. Probably would have been nothing at all remaining of Tacloban had they also had cat 5 winds

[xtyphooncyclonex]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/403181323629506560/photo/1

here is a map from TWCs Michael Lowry showing where the peak winds of Haiyan occurred

Fortunately, Tacloban did NOT get the peak winds. Thus, the winds there were likely below the cat 5 threshold (maybe cat 3 winds).

I can only suspect that is why some were able to be rescued during the tidal surge. Had the strongest winds have occurred there, I dont think those videos of rescues during the surge would have been possible. I believe Norcross when he was in Tanauan said he could not determine what damage was wind or surge. Probably would have been nothing at all remaining of Tacloban had they also had cat 5 winds

The southern part [half] probably got near category 5. The rest of Tacloban probably got 220 km/h winds.

[Alyono]

maybe the very southern part (several miles south of the airport) received cat 4 winds

Norcross described the cat 5 zone as no different than if a nuke had been detonated in the area

[Dave C]

I was watching a loop at the landfall south of Tacloban city and it appeared to me to wobble almost due west which probably allowed them in the city to skim along the north eyewall without penetrating too deeply into it. A storm chaser Josh measured 960 as his lowest pressure. Seems pretty high of a pressure unless he just skimmed the north eyewall.

[Alyono]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Typho ... as_map.png

based upon this map, the highest death rates in terms of the population density occurred south of Tacloban where the cat 5 winds occurred. This is also OUTSIDE of the highest surge zone

In this case, as was the case in Sidr in 2007 in Bangladesh, the WIND may have been directly responsible for thousands of deaths. Of course, the surge also killed thousands.

I shudder to think what would have happened had Tacloban received the 200 mph sustained winds.

However, some lessons can be learned from that. Those winds in Tacloban are what REAL cat 3 winds are. Thus, when a cat 3 hurricane is threatening members here, what happened in Tacloban is what will happen to the area that receives the max winds

[Alyono]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world ... 927710.htm

what surprises me, is that so many additional dead were found in the western Philippines. I'd have thought they would have found everyone there by now 3 weeks after the storm

[dexterlabio]

The towns of Tolosa, Dulag, Tanauan and Palo (where the eye passed directly) have seen much devastation compared to Tacloban...the thing is the devastation in Tacloban is more than enough to paralyze the activities in the whole city, not to mention Tacloban being the socio-economic capital of Eastern Visayas region.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Typhoon_Haiyan_deaths_in_Eastern_Visayas_map.png

based upon this map, the highest death rates in terms of the population density occurred south of Tacloban where the cat 5 winds occurred. This is also OUTSIDE of the highest surge zone

In this case, as was the case in Sidr in 2007 in Bangladesh, the WIND may have been directly responsible for thousands of deaths. Of course, the surge also killed thousands.

I shudder to think what would have happened had Tacloban received the 200 mph sustained winds.

However, some lessons can be learned from that. Those winds in Tacloban are what REAL cat 3 winds are. Thus, when a cat 3 hurricane is threatening members here, what happened in Tacloban is what will happen to the area that receives the max winds

Why did the people say that this is off the scale? They had a typhoon [cat 4] and directly hit Tacloban last 1984. It was a lot stronger according to them.

I guess strong cat 4-weak cat 5 winds and the people said that "They never experienced a storm of this intensity." and that if there were no cat 4 winds, the damage would not be as widespread and severe. Even storm chasers say that this is way stronger than previous storms AND TACLOBAN DID NOT MISS THE EYEWALL.


EXAMPLE:

240 km/h winds during Charley 2004: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeM-cjTEEA8
POWERFUL WINDS DURING YOLANDA / HAIYAN 2013 TACLOBAN - LEYTE PARK HOTEL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0lz_10M8x8


Cebu City and much of metro Cebu received strong category 1 winds, and unusual for storms 100 km away. That means that Haiyan's wind range was huge.

FOOTAGE:
Cebu city direct: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0lz_10M8x8
Mactan Island: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AaPbgi-p0k

NOTE ^ THESE AREAS ARE AT LEAST 100 KM AWAY FROM THE EYE.

[Alyono]

There has been enough scientific analysis to confirm that Tacloban did NOT get the worst. It seems that everyone who goes through a major event thinks they got the worst. Was at a conference recently where Hugo was discussed. Was made clear Charleston got nowhere near the worst, even though residents there THINK they got a cat 4

Cat 3 winds are as destructive as they showed in Tacloban. What they went through was basically a large EF3 tornado (in terms of the continuous gusts) for about 45 minutes. EF3 tornadoes wipe out most things long their path

That cat 4 Ike "direct hit" wasnt anywhere near a direct hit

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ike_1984_track.png

passed a good distance south of Tacloban. It clipped Mindanao. Of course Haiyan was worse. The residents of Tacloban merely overstated the intensity of Ike in their city. Maybe they had upper TS or low end cat 1 winds. However, they did not come close to receiving cat 4 winds

[dexterlabio]

^That's why it was a nice move for those who went chase Haiyan to move farther north of where the eye would eventually land.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWJf1ou2FDo

They were making adjustments to their plans at around 5:00-7:00 in the video. Hadn't they made last-minute changes, they would've stayed at a place south of Tacloban. IMO what they had filmed in Tacloban is intense enough, looking for something far intense than that would be deadly.