Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

12z GFS is still quite cold for next weekend, but it keeps most of the precip near the coast and east into Louisiana. Very little for Austin or Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Here are some new meteograms. Needless to say, no biking next weekend:

[Ntxw]

The Euro has anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow for North and Northeast Texas along and behind the Arctic front through waves that comes out of the SW.

Both models are putting teens (mid to low) likely where there is snow and ice and even where there it isn't upper 10s and low 20s. It would be the coldest air mass since 2010/2011 if that verified.

[iorange55]

The Euro has anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow for North and Northeast Texas along and behind the Arctic front through waves that comes out of the SW.

Both models are putting teens (mid to low) likely where there is snow and ice and even where there it isn't upper 10s and low 20s. It would be the coldest air mass since 2010/2011 if that verified.

Winter is getting started early this year! It definitely looks like teens are in play for some people, which is kind of crazy considering it's just now December.

We'll have to wait and see if we can squeeze out some snow, it would be a shame to waste this opportunity!

[TexasF6]

Would someone please post snowfall models? Thanks!

[BigB0882]

Can someone tell me how to get those meteogram maps for any city? I would like to be able to find them for Baton Rouge. This cold air looks to stop awfully close to where I am, so I may end up missing out on the good cold. Houston staying in the 30s while we may be in the upper 40s?

[wxman57]

Can someone tell me how to get those meteogram maps for any city? I would like to be able to find them for Baton Rouge. This cold air looks to stop awfully close to where I am, so I may end up missing out on the good cold. Houston staying in the 30s while we may be in the upper 40s?

My tutorial and the Excel file for making the meteotrams are here:

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=109958

[Ntxw]

Can someone tell me how to get those meteogram maps for any city? I would like to be able to find them for Baton Rouge. This cold air looks to stop awfully close to where I am, so I may end up missing out on the good cold. Houston staying in the 30s while we may be in the upper 40s?

Wxman57 made those maps. He taught us in a thread somewhere on how to do them through excel but I can't remember where. For Baton Rouge the GFS has low to mid 40s for highs and low to mid 30s for lows. The SE ridge is fighting the cold air surge. My guess is the front will make it well into the gulf but the deeper cold air will remain to your west as the -PNA is trying to force warmer air along the central and eastern gulf.

Edit:^ there it is!

[wxman57]

Would someone please post snowfall models? Thanks!

They're on the Ohio State site. Click the "GFS" tab, for example, then in the left column click "Winter" then "Snow Depth" to navigate through the times:

http://www.twisterdata.com/

Currently, the GFS keeps snow up in OK and south of Dallas/Ft. Worth:

[PTrackerLA]

Try this site BigB

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBTR

Shows Lafayette stuck in the low 40s and eventually upper 30s with precipitation for about 3 days. Still a long ways out and temps can change up or down but it looks like some places in Louisiana may see a significant winter storm. Hopefully we all get a taste!

[ndale]

Snowfall on the map is down to Austin from the gfs model but Wxman57 says the model shows moisture only along the coast, is that a contradiction in the model?

[BigB0882]

Thanks for the help, everyone.

[Portastorm]

Can someone tell me how to get those meteogram maps for any city? I would like to be able to find them for Baton Rouge. This cold air looks to stop awfully close to where I am, so I may end up missing out on the good cold. Houston staying in the 30s while we may be in the upper 40s?

My tutorial and the Excel file for making the meteotrams are here:

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=109958

This takes a little bit of work the first few times, but once you get the hang of it ... it's awesome! You'll love be able to work up your own meteograms.

[Portastorm]

Joe Bastardi earlier today posted a very interesting image on Twitter. It's the 10-day snowfall accumulation map from the 0z European. Should it verify, many of us here would be having one heckuva party (assuming we have power!).



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TexasF6]

Thank you everyone! I wonder if the snowpack will facilitate a colder airmass than last time?

[wxman57]

Snowfall on the map is down to Austin from the gfs model but Wxman57 says the model shows moisture only along the coast, is that a contradiction in the model?

Note that you have to take those lower-end contours with a grain of salt. Typically, the 1" or less contour (first green contour area) is very iffy for any snow. Forget it in the gray areas. Of course, we're still talking 6-7 days away...

[Ntxw]

Thank you everyone! I wonder if the snowpack will facilitate a colder airmass than last time?

It will be much colder even without the snow pack. With it, it will be one darn impressive cold spell for early December, not something we have seen since 2000 (for the first 2 weeks).

[Portastorm]

Thank you everyone! I wonder if the snowpack will facilitate a colder airmass than last time?

It will be much colder even without the snow pack. With it, it will be one darn impressive cold spell for early December, not something we have seen since 2000 (for the first 2 weeks).

Just to add to Ntxw's comments that both the GFS and Euro show this next storm system will be laying down snow cover to our north and northwest unlike the previous storm system from last weekend. That means the cold air will not moderate as much as last time.

[wxman22]

Gfs has temps in the mid 30's for Houston with plenty of precip. the question is are the models underestimating the cold air due to its shallow nature? just a few degrees can make the difference between an ice storm or just a cold rain.

[BigB0882]

What needs to happen for this cold air to move more Eastward? Someone mentioned the southeast ridge and the -PNA Does the ridge need to weaken? Shift Eastward? Is this something that looks to be locked in for a long time? I hope this isn't what I can expect all winter, just missing out...

[orangeblood]

Get those exposed pipes, swimming pool equipment and plants prepped....12Z GFS showing below freezing temps for DFW of almost 120 straight hours beginning Thursday night, bottoming out on Monday morning with a low of 15. Models are finally starting to pick up on just how cold this airmass really is, particularly in the lower levels and still might not be cold enough.