BigB0882 wrote:What needs to happen for this cold air to move more Eastward? Someone mentioned the southeast ridge and the -PNA Does the ridge need to weaken? Shift Eastward? Is this something that looks to be locked in for a long time? I hope this isn't what I can expect all winter, just missing out...
Typically we really cannot predict with any certainty just how far E or even if there will be moisture available beyond the 24-48 hour range. This is one of the reasons that the HPC/WPC Winter Weather Outlooks do not extend beyond 72 hours. As we saw with the last event, even with sounding data that supported a warm nose aloft, sleet fell for a period in the N Texas area shortly after the Arctic front was well to the S and even within a few hours of a special sounding in College Station last Tuesday, we experience snow/sleet mixed with rain as the upper low passed overhead. For you folks in SE Louisiana, what we will be watching for is a possible Coastal Low/trough to develop and just where it does develop and track if it does at all. That said the embedded short wave (upper air features/disturbance) riding S along the Western side of the Great Basin into the base of the trough suggests that even folks a bit further E may have to deal with wintery mischief. We will see.