BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

[jaguarjace]

4.7N 86.7E

[Alyono]

Likely will be a fairly intense TC by the weekend. Cannot rule out a Bangladesh threat next week

[Grifforzer]

Monday 02 December 2013

ALL INDIA WEATHER BULLETIN (Evening)

The well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal persists.

Prediction of Meteorological Condition
--------------------------------------
The well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours

[hurricanes1234]

Could this be a similar storm to Lehar?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Could this be a similar storm to Lehar?

Yes, but may become a little stronger than Lehar.

[stormkite]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... H87eiks88w

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 85.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 83.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A
021422Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A RIDGE AXIS, WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING COUNTERED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
MODEL DEVELOPMENT BUT LACK OF IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Alyono]

holy model inconsistency!

GFS has flipped from Myanmar to Somalia

[stormkite]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03-12-2013

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC. THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NOW LIES OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL.BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA :-BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. ARABIAN SEA :-BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 7.0°N TO 12.5°N EAST OF LONGITUDE 73.0°E. RIDGE LINE:- RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 14.0°N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

[mrbagyo]

GFS is showing 92B to transform into a monster, then weaken before landfall due to friction.

[stormkite]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04-12-2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
PERSISTS. IT WOULD CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA :-
VORTEX OVER SOUTHWEST BAY CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEG OF 8.0N/83.0E (.)
INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH BAY SOUTH OF
LAT 12.5N WEST OF LONG 89.0E & SRILANKA (.)
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTHEAST BAY ANDAMAN SEA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GFS model above looks to aggressive imo.
http://www.weatheronline.in/marine/weat ... &MEER=inin

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 83.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 83.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 041357Z SSMIS PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE, BUT DECREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AT 27 TO
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MULTIPLE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[supercane4867]

Looking good

[euro6208]

WTIO21 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 84.1E TO 15.2N 83.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 84.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
83.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN,
BANDING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE PERIPHERY INTO THE
CENTER. AN OLDER 050629Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
LLCC, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WIND BARBS WERE RAIN-
FLAGGED, THE OVERALL TREND IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THIS OSCAT PASS
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO CREATING
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OVER THE
CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE, RANGING FROM 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SSTS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE AS THE LLCC MOVES NORTHWARD. BASED ON THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061500Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

Likely to have a very strong system next week

eventual landfall either Myanmar or Bangladesh is most likely.

[mrbagyo]

Likely to have a very strong system next week

eventual landfall either Myanmar or Bangladesh is most likely.

that sounds very bad

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to 06B.

06B SIX 131206 0000 9.8N 83.8E IO 35 996

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051451ZDEC13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.9N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.8N 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.3N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 10.9N 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 11.8N 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.1N 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INDICATE THAT TC 06B HAS REACHED THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE, ON A 052330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 052331Z
SSMIS IMAGE. THE SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES MUCH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, DESPITE THE
FRAGMENTED NATURE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AROUND TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE, LEAVING TC 02B IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTER THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES, THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY
CARRY THE SYSTEM POLEWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. PASSAGE OVER A
SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE WILL ENABLE TC 02B TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, COOLER WATER UPWELLED
BY THE NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE SPREAD AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS PREDICT QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION FOLLOWED BY SLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST, IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OF THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER, DUE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL
MODELS AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND
070300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 051451Z DEC 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 051500).//
NNNN

[stormkite]

DEMS-RSMC
TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05-12-2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC. THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS AT 8.0N/83.0E AT 0830 HRS. IST OF TODAY INTENSITY T1.0 IT MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW. BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST SOUTHEAST BAY AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA ARABIAN SEA SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 5.0N TO 12.0N LONG 56.0E TO 64.0E RIDGE LINE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 10.0°N OVER THE INDIAN REGION.

[Alyono]

Right on cue, IMD comes in with a totally AWFUL Dvorak estimate. There is no way in the world this is a T 1.0

JTs forecast is also quite low given how intense the models are making this system. I could see this peaking at 95 KT in 72 hours before it slowly weakens