When do you think our next Category 5 hurricane will be?

[hurricanes1234]

When do you think our next Category 5 hurricane will be in either the Atlantic or eastern north Pacific? Next year? 2015? Later than that? I'd say we'll have another one in 2015, probably in the Atlantic, since EPAC Category 5s are rare. However, I think we'll see at least one Category 4 in the EPAC next year, since they are relatively common in that basin.

[Hurricaneman]

If we don't get dry air from Europe, Africa{Not Likely} and South America then maybe 2014 but I'm going to say 2015 because who knows if this is a pattern where European stable air gets dumped into the entire Atlantic Basin from the Azores high being in an unfavorable position. This will be the key

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[WeatherGuesser]

Thursday.























(Don't know which Thursday though. )

[hurricanes1234]

Thursday.























(Don't know which Thursday though. )

I meant which year, not what day of the week!

[blp]

From the historical perspective in the Atlantic, since the recon era began the longest stretch without a 5 was 8 years from 1980-1988. Next drought were two 6 year gaps from 61-67 and 71-77 Last cat 5 was in 2007 so 2014 will be year 7. Certainly by 2015 if we don't see a 5 it will be something but considering the big droughts occurred during the inactive years and this current drought during the supposed active phase it is significant on its own.

Until we see a reversal in the dry conditions dominant the last four years I see the chances we get a 5 as slim in 2014.