Texas Winter 2013-2014

[South Texas Storms]

:double: Anyone looked over tonight's Crazy Uncle Model (Canadian), goes into extreme mode with below 0 F temps into North Texas next Wednesday morning. Also shows a decent winter storm into southeast Texas early next week. Been a long time since I've seen a model go to that extreme across Texas.

Yeah I just took a look at it and it shows temperatures getting down into the teens across central Texas next Thursday morning. Crazy.
I wonder what tonight's 0z Euro run will show.

[Ntxw]

:double: Anyone looked over tonight's Crazy Uncle Model (Canadian), goes into extreme mode with below 0 F temps into North Texas next Wednesday morning. Also shows a decent winter storm into southeast Texas early next week. Been a long time since I've seen a model go to that extreme across Texas.

We are witnessing something anomalous in the atmosphere and Pacific Ocean. As Portastorm said earlier, hang on it's going to be a tumble the next couple of weeks. Don't look away or you will be frozen on your tracks! Like wxman57 will be soon

[Texas Snowman]

@RyanMaue: GFS circus forecast dumps a lot of snow on OKC, doesn't melt it. Temps drop as low as -2°F by next Monday. http://t.co/sAPF8rqTo7

[South Texas Storms]

Hahaha that's funny Ntxw! It's beginning to look like this winter may be the winter of wxman57's discontent.
But to be fair, it has been several years since we've had a cold winter.

[richtrav]

Just checked the 00z GFS, it keeps wanting to send the real cold to the NW, a crazy end times low of -7 in Seattle on the 12th! That won't pan out, but the GFS has been sending the real cold west, especially NW, for over a week now.

[TrekkerCC]

:double: Anyone looked over tonight's Crazy Uncle Model (Canadian), goes into extreme mode with below 0 F temps into North Texas next Wednesday morning. Also shows a decent winter storm into southeast Texas early next week. Been a long time since I've seen a model go to that extreme across Texas.

Well - I'm not saying CMC solution is correct or not. The Environmental Canada folks have been making improvements to the model over time. In general weather "picture" the global GEM favorably compares to the GFS and the ECMWF. If you want to see the comparisons - you can go to this website: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ For those that like to dive into the models, I think you'll find it very interesting website to examine. Tonight's 00z GGEM really does jackpot us through - two events - Thursday into Friday, and then when the upper level energy crosses over us on Monday/Tuesday. GGEM might be producing a mess over the weekend into next week if even half of it verifies.

[JDawg512]

It is pretty exciting but at the same time I'm concerned about it getting too cold especially here in Austin. I have a lot of subtropical (native plants) and some palms that could be severely damaged or killed off. Austin lost a huge amount of palms with the winter of 83 and I really do not want to deal with such a loss. Even many types of natives would be severely damaged if we see the kind of cold some of the models are showing.

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight's 0z Euro run looks colder as well. It also shows freezing rain/sleet in central Texas.

[richtrav]

It is pretty exciting but at the same time I'm concerned about it getting too cold especially here in Austin. I have a lot of subtropical (native plants) and some palms that could be severely damaged or killed off. Austin lost a huge amount of palms with the winter of 83 and I really do not want to deal with such a loss. Even many types of natives would be severely damaged if we see the kind of cold some of the models are showing.

If your plants made it through 2010 and 2011 they should be more than hardy enough for the cold being predicted in the foreseeable future. Can't guarantee about the rest of the winter but statistically the chances of a freeze as extreme as '83 are slim.

[Portastorm]

I see that the counties in and around the Wichita Falls area have been placed in a Winter Storm Watch by NWSFO Norman. I know we have a few folks who post from that area, so HEADS UP!

Overnight guidance has not swayed my thinking in that the DFW Metroplex is going to have one messy commute Friday morning. Lots more to talk about into the weekend.

Further south, looks like EWX is slightly more bullish on our chances for wintry precip (relevant snippet from morning AFD below):

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN WANE AS THE COLD DOME DEEPENS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ABOUT EVERY 24 HOURS...BUT THESE
ARE GENERALLY WEAK. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS REDUCED POPS OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW 32F FOR THE LONGEST PERIODS EACH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NOW
APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS. WE DECIDED THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS WAS CONTINUE
MENTION OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE
TOTAL...SOMETHING MORE LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE STILL EXPECT
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION...AND MAINLY
ONLY A MINOR PROBLEM ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHLIGHTED WORDING AND REFRESH THE SPS FOR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ACTIONABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS THE
SAME...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE BEST COMPLETED BY SUNSET
WEDNESDAY...AS COLD AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Ntxw]

Should get interesting in a few days. Blizzard in Oklahoma, wintry mix in North Texas, Ice storm in central and southeast Texas .

JB said this on twitter so I went ahead and looked at the whole thing from the NWS. Talk about extremes!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
845 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

...DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE NARRATIVE FOR NOVEMBER 2013...

ON NOVEMBER 13...DFW AIRPORT RECORDED ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES WAS THE EARLIEST IN THE
SEASON THE MERCURY HAS DIPPED INTO THE 20S SINCE 1993...WHEN IT WAS
29 DEGREES ON HALLOWEEN. IN ADDITION...THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ROSE
TO 30.69 INCHES ON NOVEMBER 13...THE HIGHEST PRESSURE AT DFW SINCE
JANUARY 2012.

JUST FOUR DAYS LATER...ON NOVEMBER 17...DFW AIRPORT REACHED A DAILY
RECORD HIGH OF 87 DEGREES...JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE ALL-TIME
RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

FOUR DAYS AFTER THAT...AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGED INTO NORTH TEXAS.
SOME SLEET AND SNOW GRAINS WERE REPORTED ON NOVEMBER 22...AND
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRED THE FOLLOWING DAY. THE SLEET AT DFW AIRPORT
ON NOVEMBER 22 WAS THE EARLIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN A SEASON
SINCE 2007. MORE SLEET FELL ON NOVEMBER 24 AND 25...AND WHEN A
WINTRY MIX OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS ON NOVEMBER 26...
IT MARKED FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK...THE TEMPERATURE AT DFW AIRPORT WAS
BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR NEARLY 60 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. THIS IS THE
LONGEST STRETCH OF SUB-40 WEATHER DURING NOVEMBER SINCE 1976.

DURING THE MONTH...THERE WERE THREE DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S. THIS IS THE GREATEST NUMBER OF SUB-30 LOWS IN NOVEMBER
SINCE 1993.

[Ntxw]

Meteograms for various cities in the southern plains looks cold. You can forget about seeing above 40 North of I-20 for a long time. North of I-10 50 will be hard to come by, if you are in Oklahoma you will freeze for awhile. All this before it comes crashing down (if it does).

Euro and GFS are both on for a mess.

[Tireman4]

This morning's HGX AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE FORMATION...
EXTENT...AND DURATION OF MORNING FOG. MVFR FOG OVER TERMINALS
EXPERIENCING LOW DECKS AND MVFR OVER THOSE HUBS THAT HAVE CLEAR
SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE THAT
SATURATES UP WITHIN A THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY WED AM HOURS. THE ONE INHIBITER WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 5 KNOT SW-S WIND PROVIDING THAT NEAR-SURFACE MIXING.
OTHER THAN FOG AND/OR IFR CEILINGS...VFR WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR
SKIES AND A NEAR 10 KT SOUTHWEST WIND. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STILL EXPECTING A COUPLE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM EARLY DECEMBER
DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
NOON ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST IN
THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WINTER
LIKE WEATHER (COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN) WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS UPCOMING EVENT...THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. 42

MARINE...
THE ONSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
INLAND PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCEC LEVEL OFFSHORE
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINT
AIR RIDING OVER COOLER WATER IN THE 50S WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY NEAR-SCEC LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TIMED TO REACH THE COAST MID TO LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL OCCUR IN THIS FRONT`S WAKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID SATURDAY...GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 10
FEET. 31


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[orangeblood]

Latest CFSv2 snowfall forecast for Dec 5-10, looks somewhat similar to the Euro but on the extreme end with snowfall deep into central Texas.

[wxman57]

Looks like another cold rain event for Houston. Temps in the upper 30s to low 40s with rain Saturday. A little less cold Sunday.

0Z Euro does have about 1/4" snow as far south as Victoria between 9Z Sat and 9Z Sun, as colder air slips west of Houston. I wouldn't count on any snow that far south, though.

Just plotted a few extended-range GFS meteograms for Houston next week and there is tremendous run-to-run variance. Yesterday, the GFS predicted lows in the mid 20s with highs below freezing late next week. 00z had lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid 40s for the same period. Pointless to look at temps that far out.

00Z Euro does have highs above freezing Sat/Sun in Dallas. Could see some snow up there, though probably not a lot.

[orangeblood]

For those in the DFW metroplex, here is the text printout for last nights European run....it has almost a half an inch of precip falling in subfreezing surface temps with freezing rain ending as sleet on Friday morning, obviously the FW NWS is going with the GFS at this point. But if this run were to verify or get anywhere close, expect ice storm warnings to be issued over the next 48 hours. Saturday high doesn't even get out of the 20's with Sunday's high barely above freezing. Nasty!!

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DFW LAT= 32.90 LON= -97.03 ELE= 597

00Z DEC03
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
TUE 00Z 03-DEC 17.4 13.3 1005 57 25 0.00 568 564
TUE 06Z 03-DEC 9.6 14.2 1005 92 25 0.00 568 564
TUE 12Z 03-DEC 7.3 15.2 1002 92 16 0.00 567 565
TUE 18Z 03-DEC 19.1 16.4 1002 43 10 0.00 570 568
WED 00Z 04-DEC 15.6 17.6 1000 67 9 0.00 570 570
WED 06Z 04-DEC 13.6 17.6 1002 63 7 0.00 572 571
WED 12Z 04-DEC 13.9 17.3 1003 63 9 0.00 572 570
WED 18Z 04-DEC 23.1 17.6 1005 51 39 0.00 574 570
THU 00Z 05-DEC 20.5 15.8 1005 85 39 0.00 574 570
THU 06Z 05-DEC 17.9 16.6 1007 94 11 0.00 574 568
THU 12Z 05-DEC 8.5 12.8 1014 64 69 0.01 574 562
THU 18Z 05-DEC 3.7 9.8 1019 61 77 0.01 575 559
FRI 00Z 06-DEC 0.9 8.2 1020 80 94 0.12 573 557
FRI 06Z 06-DEC -0.8 7.6 1022 83 83 0.28 572 555
FRI 12Z 06-DEC -1.8 3.0 1024 83 89 0.29 571 552
FRI 18Z 06-DEC -1.3 0.5 1029 72 88 0.14 571 548
SAT 00Z 07-DEC -1.3 -1.2 1030 62 53 0.00 571 547
SAT 06Z 07-DEC -3.8 0.1 1034 60 15 0.00 573 547
SAT 12Z 07-DEC -5.1 0.9 1034 57 15 0.00 572 546
SAT 18Z 07-DEC -2.4 2.5 1033 55 97 0.00 573 548
SUN 00Z 08-DEC -1.5 1.3 1029 63 100 0.02 572 549
SUN 06Z 08-DEC -1.3 3.4 1027 78 53 0.03 572 550
SUN 12Z 08-DEC -1.8 5.8 1022 83 29 0.01 570 553
SUN 18Z 08-DEC -0.2 5.9 1020 83 35 0.03 570 555
MON 00Z 09-DEC 1.7 10.7 1015 87 8 0.00 568 557
MON 06Z 09-DEC -2.7 9.6 1015 99 4 0.00 567 555
MON 12Z 09-DEC -2.8 4.8 1016 99 44 0.00 565 551
MON 18Z 09-DEC 3.3 2.0 1022 63 71 0.00 563 545
TUE 00Z 10-DEC 0.6 -2.9 1028 53 10 0.00 559 537

[gpsnowman]

While we wait for the cold and ice I thought I would post an old weather video of the late, great Harold Taft. His name is often mentioned on these discussions and I certainly remember him as a child on into my teens. Watched him nearly every day after we moved back to Dallas in 1984. The video is from 1980 and it is quite a contrast against the modern technology of today. Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nwfVh_3 ... detailpage

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS looks cold for early next week. It shows a 1045 mb high located near Wichita Falls next Tuesday morning. Brrrrr.

[Portastorm]

Something for us all to keep in mind is that the models are NOT grasping just how cold this airmass is. Snowcover/ice will be laid down to the north of Texas and I don't think the models are reflecting this, so as we get closer to the weekend I think we'll see some of those temp progs for much of Texas drop.

[gpsnowman]

Many of Maue/Bastardi tweets recently have concerned the DFW area. If you believe their models we are in for it. Bastardi mentions the 0F line near Dallas at 192 hrs. Wowzers