Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Kelarie]

From Steve McCauley (facebook page)

Quick update: Latest data still strongly suggest cold rain showers on Thursday will transition to freezing rain and sleet Thursday night into Friday morning. I think it might be safe to say that the bridges and overpasses at the very least will take a hit with the ice. Now we have to determine if the main roads will be slick as well.

And yes, this is an extended cold snap with additional chances of wintry precip for the weekend. I didn't do any storm prep with our last event; but I think I will with this one

[wxman57]

Made a couple of meteograms for Houston & Dallas from the 12Z GFS. Neither indicates any pleasant weather after tomorrow. No ice down here, but there may be problems up north of Houston.

[Tejas89]

As of now, DFW local mets and NWS seem a little cautious on things being too terrible this weekend.. after bridge and overpass trouble Friday morning.

Of course Dallas will be hosting it's largest annual event Sunday a.m. The marathon's gonna be a chilly one! Maybe not too slick though.. (hopefully).

[Portastorm]

As of now, DFW local mets and NWS seem a little cautious on things being too terrible this weekend.. after bridge and overpass trouble Friday morning.

Of course Dallas will be hosting it's largest annual event Sunday a.m. The marathon's gonna be a chilly one! Maybe not too slick though.. (hopefully).

I think NWSFO DFW has about a day to play with in terms of the forecast. By tomorrow they're going to have to commit to a call so the public has 48 hours notice. Personally ... I really think y'all are in for it Friday morning. I think it's going to start getting nasty overnight Thursday for the Metroplex and worsen during the pre-dawn hours Friday. This event should be worse than the pre-Thanksgiving event.

[gboudx]

As of now, how much ice are we talking about in the DFW area? I mean on exposed objects such as trees and power lines. I have 1 tree behind my fence which leans towards my house. I think it would slightly miss the house if it fell, but I think it would also take a good amount of ice since all it's leaves are long gone.

[iorange55]

Yeah, this event will be worse than the Thanksgiving event. Just take a look at the meteogram wxman57 posted for the DFW area.

Looks like the GFS 12z is a little colder and wetter. It's going to be a nasty weekend, and then it looks like the temps go even lower next week.

[orangeblood]

As of now, DFW local mets and NWS seem a little cautious on things being too terrible this weekend.. after bridge and overpass trouble Friday morning.

Of course Dallas will be hosting it's largest annual event Sunday a.m. The marathon's gonna be a chilly one! Maybe not too slick though.. (hopefully).

Probably has a lot to do with the Big Bust a couple of weeks ago

Looking at the new GFS and last nights Euro, the potential is there for a top 5 consecutive hours below freezing streak for DFW starting Late Thursday. As Porta just mentioned, snowcover will push these numbers even further. Starting to get into uncharted territory for this early in the winter season

Latest GFS ensemble 5 day mean forecast for Dec 7-12, anywhere from 15-25 deg F below normal across almost the entire State of Texas

[Portastorm]

As of now, how much ice are we talking about in the DFW area? I mean on exposed objects such as trees and power lines. I have 1 tree behind my fence which leans towards my house. I think it would slightly miss the house if it fell, but I think it would also take a good amount of ice since all it's leaves are long gone.

Based on the 12z GFS, if I'm reading it right, you could be looking at a quarter inch or slightly more of a freezing rain-sleet mix. As your local NWS office said in its morning discussion, the warm ground temps we have now may be your saving grace with regards to roadways icing ... but bridges/overpasses/exposed objects? Most definitely. I see this one providing enough moisture to really mess you guys up early in the day.

[gboudx]

As of now, how much ice are we talking about in the DFW area? I mean on exposed objects such as trees and power lines. I have 1 tree behind my fence which leans towards my house. I think it would slightly miss the house if it fell, but I think it would also take a good amount of ice since all it's leaves are long gone.

Based on the 12z GFS, if I'm reading it right, you could be looking at a quarter inch or slightly more of a freezing rain-sleet mix. As your local NWS office said in its morning discussion, the warm ground temps we have now may be your saving grace with regards to roadways icing ... but bridges/overpasses/exposed objects? Most definitely. I see this one providing enough moisture to really mess you guys up early in the day.

D'oh! I missed 57's meteogram post. It does show about 0.25" for the event, but if temps are just slightly colder than the model output, it could be more.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Porta,

Any updates on what you're expecting for Austin?

[Portastorm]

Porta,

Any updates on what you're expecting for Austin?

Well, here's a meteogram for KAUS per the 12z GFS:



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[RedRiverRefuge]

Just to get an idea of potential disruption to electrical service for any given ice storm. Its not just the accumulated ice but the wind as well is placed in the equation . Hadn't seen posted so though i would share the SPIA index This was developed by Sid Sperry, Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives, and Steven Piltz, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla.,


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[sooner101]

What are the chances that this will be a snow event for dfw?!

[iorange55]

Get your bread and milk!

Steve McCauley's Facebook...

Well...the Stat Method has hit 100% probability for the ice now, up from 95% yesterday which is up from 85% the day before. The trend is unsettling.

I report this in hopes that Mom sees it and decides to humiliate the SM by keeping temps above freezing while it is raining. But sadly that is highly unlikely. It is going to be raining while temperatures are in the 20s !! Hate it.

I fear my palm trees are going to be flattened come Friday morning, and my newly erected greenhouse will be entombed in a hermetically sealed sheet of ice.

And then we get hit again over the weekend.

Grocery store, haircut shop, hardware store ... here I come!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im headed to Austin Thursday night for a Hedge Fund networking event, i may stay for the weekend, but i will leave early if it looks like i wont be able to get out of there on Sunday. Have to play it by ear and through you guys while im there.

[gboudx]

Get your bread and milk!

Steve McCauley's Facebook...

Well...the Stat Method has hit 100% probability for the ice now, up from 95% yesterday which is up from 85% the day before. The trend is unsettling.

I report this in hopes that Mom sees it and decides to humiliate the SM by keeping temps above freezing while it is raining. But sadly that is highly unlikely. It is going to be raining while temperatures are in the 20s !! Hate it.

I fear my palm trees are going to be flattened come Friday morning, and my newly erected greenhouse will be entombed in a hermetically sealed sheet of ice.

And then we get hit again over the weekend.

Grocery store, haircut shop, hardware store ... here I come!!

Rut Roh. Guess we better hit the grocery store for some non-perishables too. And get some more firewood for heat.

[Dallasaggie01]

Can someone explain what Steve's referencing when he says the "stat" models? Is this anyone specific model set, or the ensemble?

[gpsnowman]

Can someone explain what Steve's referencing when he says the "stat" models? Is this anyone specific model set, or the ensemble?

It is actually "Stat Method". He is a very intelligent weatherman so he came up with his own forecasting method called the Stat Method. It is fairly accurate from what I can tell. He has his misses using it from time to time but weather forecasting is hardly perfect. How he came up with it, I don't know but he is someone a lot of us on this board look to for weather info! Hope this helps.

[wxman57]

What are the chances that this will be a snow event for dfw?!

Current GFS projected sounding indicates some quite warm air aloft over the DFW metroplex this weekend. Sub-freezing at the surface but mid 40s a few thousand feet above that. This would indicate freezing rain and sleet rather than snow.

[TwisterFanatic]

Just to get an idea of potential disruption to electrical service for any given ice storm. Its not just the accumulated ice but the wind as well is placed in the equation . Hadn't seen posted so though i would share the SPIA index This was developed by Sid Sperry, Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives, and Steven Piltz, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla.,
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/7990/bwbt.jpg=

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Don't like that graph, we had a "Cat 5 Ice Storm" here in 09. Ugly.