Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Cuda17]

Looks like another cold rain event for Houston. Temps in the upper 30s to low 40s with rain Saturday. A little less cold Sunday.

0Z Euro does have about 1/4" snow as far south as Victoria between 9Z Sat and 9Z Sun, as colder air slips west of Houston. I wouldn't count on any snow that far south, though.

Just plotted a few extended-range GFS meteograms for Houston next week and there is tremendous run-to-run variance. Yesterday, the GFS predicted lows in the mid 20s with highs below freezing late next week. 00z had lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid 40s for the same period. Pointless to look at temps that far out.

00Z Euro does have highs above freezing Sat/Sun in Dallas. Could see some snow up there, though probably not a lot.

I don't post often, only when I feel it's necessary, mainly for observations. But I feel I must point out that I get super giddy when talk of this crazy cold air and wintry weather dominates this forum... but then, then this, this wxman57 goes and takes everyone back to reality. And I droop my head and hope that Ntxw will soon bring me back to that far off place known as Winter.

[Tireman4]

I don't post often, only when I feel it's necessary, mainly for observations. But I feel I must point out that I get super giddy when talk of this crazy cold air and wintry weather dominates this forum... but then, then this, this wxman57 goes and takes everyone back to reality. And I droop my head and hope that Ntxw will soon bring me back to that far off place known as Winter.

Ha ha. I know. Well sir, he is the Dark Lord of Summer. He is the Heat Miser. He has earned that title.

[wxman57]

Sorry, but I live in the real world where I have to be objective for our clients. Plus, I hate cold weather.

[Cuda17]

Sorry, but I live in the real world where I have to be objective for our clients. Plus, I hate cold weather.

I'm not hating on you... okay, maybe just a tad... ha! No seriously, you do a great job of forecasting and keeping us updated. Thank you sir!

[Ntxw]

Not a lot of time for detailed post but I'm sure orangeblood or someone will post the Euro for you Cuda. Don't let te heat miser deter you, war is coming to his doorstep from the north!

[Tireman4]

Not a lot of time for detailed post but I'm sure orangeblood or someone will post the Euro for you Cuda. Don't let te heat miser deter you, war is coming to his doorstep from the north!

It is marching fast and furious.

[HockeyTx82]

So I have been following along and it seems that something is coming. Will Lucy show up this time or is this one for real? The temps seem to be for sure. I see a lot of dark colors on the maps (both snow and temp) and I want to get excited but yet I don't want to get let down either. Is this cold shot a shoe in or could things fall apart and bust? It's so early in the season I just have a hard time buying into all of this. I want it to get cold and snow, but at the same time after the last storm and last winter I am left wounded.

At this point how many of the models show cold and snow? How many are not?

Which one is showing the best case scenario (how cold and how much snow) and worst case (warm and dry).

How cold are we talking here into this weekend and into next week? I saw someone mention 0F??????

[weatherdude1108]

It is pretty exciting but at the same time I'm concerned about it getting too cold especially here in Austin. I have a lot of subtropical (native plants) and some palms that could be severely damaged or killed off. Austin lost a huge amount of palms with the winter of 83 and I really do not want to deal with such a loss. Even many types of natives would be severely damaged if we see the kind of cold some of the models are showing.

Yeah, we have a couple Sagos (technically not palms, but Cycads) in our front yard. I know for a fact they survived down to 17 degrees (without any protection) a couple years back. I was nervous because all the fronds turned from green to a beige yellow. But new sprouts popped up some time in April.

I know this is off topic, but liquid seaweed (i.e., Maxicrop) helps to lower the freezing point of the plant leaves when you spray them, lowering the risk of damage. A Master Gardener here in town gave me that pointer. Also helps the plants with heat and drought stress.

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the high-res Euro data with 2m temps plotted and 3-hr precip. It indicates a significant icing event from NW of Austin to the southern D-FW metroplex on Friday. I plotted the 850mb freezing level (5000 ft) and it keeps the freeze line NW of the precip area on Friday, an indication of sleet/freezing rain as the primary precip. Out west of D-FW it would be snow, probably. Mostly snow up in Wichita Falls through southern OK.

[Portastorm]

I'm looking at the high-res Euro data with 2m temps plotted and 3-hr precip. It indicates a significant icing event from NW of Austin to the southern D-FW metroplex on Friday. I plotted the 850mb freezing level (5000 ft) and it keeps the freeze line NW of the precip area on Friday, an indication of sleet/freezing rain as the primary precip. Out west of D-FW it would be snow, probably.

Thanks for sharing the info, wxman57. This has been my concern all along with the GFS being a bit too warm and the potential of a coastal trough/low setting up creating more precip than anticipated. I'm growing very concerned for persons in central and north Texas. At this time, I think my area is still relatively safe from a major ice storm. But if I live in Killeen, Temple, Waco, or the DFW Metroplex, I'd be getting supplies and making sure I was ready for several days of no power.

[stormlover2013]

WXMAN, so you still think Lufkin will be ok this weekend?

[wxman57]

WXMAN, so you still think Lufkin will be ok this weekend?

Cold and wet but not icy for your drive.

[Meteorcane]

Be Careful Texan friends, North Texas could be in-line for some significant icing If the moisture is available, because temperature profiles and/or forcing should be present.

[wxman57]

If the temperature DOES reach the lower 20s in Austin next week then spraying plants won't have much impact. You'll need to cover the sensitive plants and maybe put an incandescent light under the sheet/blanket to generate heat.

[sooner101]

What is keeping the snow up in Oklahoma and not in North Texas? I know that Wxman57 mentioned the warmer temps thousands of feet up, but how come The models are showing snow for parts of northwest Texas and Oklahoma?

[Portastorm]

What is keeping the snow up in Oklahoma and not in North Texas? I know that Wxman57 mentioned the warmer temps thousands of feet up, but how come The models are showing snow for parts of northwest Texas and Oklahoma?

Because the vertical profile of the atmosphere will be colder in your area ... less warm air in certain layers and more freezing/subfreezing temperatures in all strata. That should support primarily snow.

[wxman57]

As I look more closely at the high-res European model data, it's apparent that the snow accumulation area appears to match the location of the SURFACE freeze line (and farther north). For example, it shows temps in Dallas below freezing on Friday with snow. But looking above the surface, it has temps well above freezing at 850mb (5000 ft) over Dallas at the same time it's predicting snow there. So be careful believing the European snow area, as it appears to be calibrated for northern latitudes where the airmass is typically below freezing at the surface AND aloft.

[Tireman4]

Wxman57, are you worried about the next arctic blast coming ( not this one...LOL)?

[Portastorm]

Here's King Euro's 12z op run depiction of 850mb temps next Wednesday (12/11). Oh my ... been a long time since we've seen temps in mid December like this, should it verify:



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[wxman57]

Wxman57, are you worried about the next arctic blast coming ( not this one...LOL)?

I worry about all cold fronts.

Meanwhile, I think I may get the lawn mower out when I get home and enjoy this perfect December day.