Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Portastorm - I looked at the moisture next Tue/Wed and don't see much to work with. Looks like a dry surge of cold air.

[Portastorm]

Wxman57, are you worried about the next arctic blast coming ( not this one...LOL)?

I worry about all cold fronts.

Meanwhile, I think I may get the lawn mower out when I get home and enjoy this perfect December day.

It is your kind of day ... partly cloudy and mid 80s here in Austin. Not bad for December 3rd. Hard to believe what's on the horizon when one is outside enjoying today's weather.

[Meteorcane]

Here's King Euro's 12z op run depiction of 850mb temps next Wednesday (12/11). Oh my ... been a long time since we've seen temps in mid December like this, should it verify:

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/2038/bwc.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Correct me if I am wrong Porta, but for 12z (ie early morning CDT) temp estimates the 850 temp is not much colder (and can occasionally even warmer) than surface temps, assuming a nocturnal inversion is present? However, I would gladly take those temps (here) compared to the GFS and its single digit temps.

[Tireman4]

Wxman57, are you worried about the next arctic blast coming ( not this one...LOL)?

I worry about all cold fronts.

Meanwhile, I think I may get the lawn mower out when I get home and enjoy this perfect December day.

You could get out the portable propane heater and warm yourself while mowing... ( today)

[Portastorm]

Here's King Euro's 12z op run depiction of 850mb temps next Wednesday (12/11). Oh my ... been a long time since we've seen temps in mid December like this, should it verify:

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/2038/bwc.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Correct me if I am wrong Porta, but for 12z (ie early morning CDT) temp estimates the 850 temp is not much colder (and can occasionally even warmer) than surface temps, assuming a nocturnal inversion is present? However, I would gladly take those temps (here) compared to the GFS and its single digit temps.

As I understand it, I think you're correct especially with these types of winter airmasses. We'd have to look at a skew-T diagram to get more specific about air temps in the column in a given location. But when you see the 0-degree isotherm on an 850mb map extended down to the Gulf Coast ... that tells me that surface temps at or slightly below freezing will closely be dictated by that same isotherm line. I get low 20s for my area of Texas out of that Euro map. Wxman57 may have the exact 2m temps (surface) and could share them with us. Unfortunately I do not subscribe to Euro data or a site which has detailed Euro data. So I'm ballparking.

Looks like it'll be a cold one for Bedlam in Stillwater!

[Meteorcane]

Here's King Euro's 12z op run depiction of 850mb temps next Wednesday (12/11). Oh my ... been a long time since we've seen temps in mid December like this, should it verify:

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/2038/bwc.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Correct me if I am wrong Porta, but for 12z (ie early morning CDT) temp estimates the 850 temp is not much colder (and can occasionally even warmer) than surface temps, assuming a nocturnal inversion is present? However, I would gladly take those temps (here) compared to the GFS and its single digit temps.

As I understand it, I think you're correct especially with these types of winter airmasses. We'd have to look at a skew-T diagram to get more specific about air temps in the column in a given location. But when you see the 0-degree isotherm on an 850mb map extended down to the Gulf Coast ... that tells me that surface temps at or slightly below freezing will closely be dictated by that same isotherm line. I get low 20s for my area of Texas out of that Euro map. Wxman57 may have the exact 2m temps (surface) and could share them with us. Unfortunately I do not subscribe to Euro data or a site which has detailed Euro data. So I'm ballparking.

Looks like it'll be a cold one for Bedlam in Stillwater!

Yeah hopefully that will slow down the OSU passing game, although they didn't seem to have many problems with Baylor in similar cold conditions. I do fear that after tomorrow I might not see 40 degrees again for a while (a tough thought for someone who is from New Orleans, and did his undergrad at the University of Miami).

[orangeblood]

Here you go.....192 hour Euro surface temps, high 20's all the way to the Texas gulf coast. Still believe models are too conservative with these numbers

Check out the numbers where there is snow cover, yikes !!!!

[gboudx]

Wxman57, are you worried about the next arctic blast coming ( not this one...LOL)?

I worry about all cold fronts.

Meanwhile, I think I may get the lawn mower out when I get home and enjoy this perfect December day.

I'm going to try and get a few miles under my bike tires before it gets dark. I have 2 more days of riding left.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[Texas Snowman]

Sorry, but I live in the real world where I have to be objective for our clients. Plus, I hate cold weather.

Plus he is sometimes wrong.

[HockeyTx82]

FTW NWS has some graphics up on the homepage. Any thoughts as to what to what they are thinking right now?

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS ...

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
321 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-040930-SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
321 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS AND ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THESE COLD CONDITIONS...MOISTURE RIDING ABOVE THE COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. FREEZING RAIN CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 20 AFTER NIGHTFALL ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATION TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM TYLER TO EL DORADO.

THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING. AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE. RESIDENTS...TRAVELLERS...AND ANYONE WITH INTERESTS IN THE FOUR STATE REGION SHOULD PREPARE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

[gboudx]

FTW NWS has some graphics up on the homepage. Any thoughts as to what to what they are thinking right now?

Did you see their weather video briefing?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U2zm0wY ... e=youtu.be

[orangeblood]

FTW NWS has some graphics up in the homepage. Any thoughts as to what to what they are thinking right now?

Still look somewhat conservative and understandably so but according to most current model depictions some parts of North Texas will have a serious ice storm threat. Thanks to RedRiverRefuge's post - with potential ice accumulations anywhere from 0.25-.50 of an inch and winds of 15-25 mph - that ranks as a 2 index borderline 3 on the SPIA ice storm scale with widespread impacts to the electricity grid possible

[aggiecutter]

Updated forecast for Texarkana for Saturday night:

"Saturday Night Freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

I'm moving to the Bahamas. To my knowledge, they don't have ice storms there.

[HockeyTx82]

FTW NWS has some graphics up on the homepage. Any thoughts as to what to what they are thinking right now?

Did you see their weather video briefing?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U2zm0wY ... e=youtu.be

I am on my phone, must have missed it. Thank you for sharing.

[HockeyTx82]

Updated forecast for Texarkana for Saturday night:

"Saturday Night Freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

I'm moving to the Bahamas. To my knowledge, they don't have ice storms there.

Bahama Bucks has good shaved ice

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Updated forecast for Texarkana for Saturday night:

"Saturday Night Freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

I'm moving to the Bahamas. To my knowledge, they don't have ice storms there.

According to Al Gore and Hollywood... they will really soon!

[ravyrn]

FTW NWS has some graphics up on the homepage. Any thoughts as to what to what they are thinking right now?

"Crap, we have to forecast another winter storm again and it's barely even December. What the heck, mother nature?!"

[jerryh421]

Here you go.....192 hour Euro surface temps, high 20's all the way to the Texas gulf coast. Still believe models are too conservative with these numbers

Check out the numbers where there is snow cover, yikes !!!!

I'm assuming these are low temps correct?