Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014
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- TwisterFanatic
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Oh, you models.
ECMWF wants to drop it almost all as snow, showing widespread 6-12 inch amounts
NAM wants to drop it all as sleet/freezing rain
GFS does a little of both.
72 hours out and still don't know who will get what. Everybody is gonna get something though.
ECMWF wants to drop it almost all as snow, showing widespread 6-12 inch amounts
NAM wants to drop it all as sleet/freezing rain
GFS does a little of both.
72 hours out and still don't know who will get what. Everybody is gonna get something though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Oh, you models.
ECMWF wants to drop it almost all as snow, showing widespread 6-12 inch amounts
NAM wants to drop it all as sleet/freezing rain
GFS does a little of both.
72 hours out and still don't know who will get what. Everybody is gonna get something though.
Doesn't it feel like this happens every time we have a decent shot of cold air? I have noticed both the NAM and the GFS have been trending to put the precip further south of the OKC metro along a line about 40 miles parallel of I-44. I guess it's officially the sit and wait until we are into Rapid Refresh. I don't even know if there has been any weather balloons that have put real data into the models yet.
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Oh, you models.
ECMWF wants to drop it almost all as snow, showing widespread 6-12 inch amounts
NAM wants to drop it all as sleet/freezing rain
GFS does a little of both.
72 hours out and still don't know who will get what. Everybody is gonna get something though.
The new 18z NAM run on twisterdata.com has a snow change over between 12AM Friday and 3AM and a very nice moderate precip depiction on simulated reflectivity.
Im sure the GFS is going to come in with something that either starts to show model agreement or it will show no precip.
This couldn't be any more fun to watch unfold.
Any bets on Mike Morgan rolling out the full crazy tonight on KFOR?
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014
LOL at the clown NAM map showing 12-14 inches for MBY in Tulsa!!! Riiiiiggghtt
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- TwisterFanatic
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014
ouamber wrote:LOL at the clown NAM map showing 12-14 inches for MBY in Tulsa!!! Riiiiiggghtt
Well, if it's gonna snow, it better do it right. None of that 6-8 inch little league stuff.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014
ouamber wrote:LOL at the clown NAM map showing 12-14 inches for MBY in Tulsa!!! Riiiiiggghtt
Here is that NAM Snow graph you were LOL'ing at...
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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- TwisterFanatic
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Haven't looked over it totally, but it seems the 18z GFS is leaning towards the more snow bandwagon right now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Haven't looked over it totally, but it seems the 18z GFS is leaning towards the more snow bandwagon right now.
You mean Snowmeggon 2013? Apparently, NE OK doesn't know how to have just 3-4 inches...we just go for Blizzards and feet of snow. Unfortunately, we are due. We have had nothing the last two years. Guess it's an all or nothing with us! I still don't believe that crazy map! GFS says 6-8...but it could be like 9-11.
All I do know is that next week it's gonna be friggin' cold!!! While people will be getting bread, milk, and toilet paper tonight...I'll be stocking up on firewood and wine!:)
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Haven't looked over it totally, but it seems the 18z GFS is leaning towards the more snow bandwagon right now.
Yep agree with that it doesn't have the same totals as the 18z NAM but the cooridor is almost identical. Seeing model convergence forming now. Let's see what 0z holds for us.
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- Meteorcane
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014
00z NAM sticking to its guns, possibly even more bullish on snow for most of oklahoma rather than the mixed precip it was showing earlier.
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- TwisterFanatic
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Pretty good shift south though on the NAM.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TwisterFanatic
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GFS is also trending south, has been all day.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:GFS is also trending south, has been all day.
Not really both the 18z NAM and GFS have the heaviest precip on the I-44 cooridor.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2. ... TIONID=TLX
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- TwisterFanatic
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Re: Re:
I just noticed something I've never noticed, the snowfall maps on twisterdata and Earl Barker's page don't match.
For example on the 0z GFS
Twisterdata: Heaviest snowfall from Wichita Falls, TX up to McAlester, OK and up into Fayetteville, AR
Wxcaster: Heaviest snowfall from Oklahoma City to Tulsa into Joplin, MO.
Anybody know why it's like that?
For example on the 0z GFS
Twisterdata: Heaviest snowfall from Wichita Falls, TX up to McAlester, OK and up into Fayetteville, AR
Wxcaster: Heaviest snowfall from Oklahoma City to Tulsa into Joplin, MO.
Anybody know why it's like that?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- lester
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Re: Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:I just noticed something I've never noticed, the snowfall maps on twisterdata and Earl Barker's page don't match.
For example on the 0z GFS
Twisterdata: Heaviest snowfall from Wichita Falls, TX up to McAlester, OK and up into Fayetteville, AR
Wxcaster: Heaviest snowfall from Oklahoma City to Tulsa into Joplin, MO.
Anybody know why it's like that?
Different algorithms that go into these snowfall maps I'd assume. The snowfall maps are assuming that the snowfall ratios will be 10:1, which may or may not happen.
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- TwisterFanatic
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014
NWS raised the Freezing Rain amounts for SE and East Central OK in a big way. Before about .10-.15, now .50+ of Freezing rain with the wind supposed to blow 25-30 MPH out of the north, it could be real bad if that pans out, would be a 4 on the Sperry-Spitz Index.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TwisterFanatic
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Already turning colder across Oklahoma. There is a 'leading' edge of the front that is dropping temps 10-15 degrees then the punch of sub-freezing air comes in a 3 hours later.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- S2K Supporter
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Re: Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:I just noticed something I've never noticed, the snowfall maps on twisterdata and Earl Barker's page don't match.
For example on the 0z GFS
Twisterdata: Heaviest snowfall from Wichita Falls, TX up to McAlester, OK and up into Fayetteville, AR
Wxcaster: Heaviest snowfall from Oklahoma City to Tulsa into Joplin, MO.
Anybody know why it's like that?
I noticed that too. It might also be the projection of the map. Because the data looks the same it's just off by 60 miles on either side.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014
12z Euro "Snow" numbers. I just pulled what I could see. Some of the numbers are so small, it's hard to read.
Chanute, KS: 0.6"
Bartlesville, OK: 2.3"
OKC: Around 6" for everyone
Tulsa: 5.1 North-6.2 South"
Joplin: 3.7"
Monett, MO: 5.2"
Springfield: 4.2"
NW Arkansas area: 6-6.3"
Ft. Smith: Looks like 6.6" but might be 8.6"
Little Rock: 5.4-6.x"
Chanute, KS: 0.6"
Bartlesville, OK: 2.3"
OKC: Around 6" for everyone
Tulsa: 5.1 North-6.2 South"
Joplin: 3.7"
Monett, MO: 5.2"
Springfield: 4.2"
NW Arkansas area: 6-6.3"
Ft. Smith: Looks like 6.6" but might be 8.6"
Little Rock: 5.4-6.x"
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