Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Looking at the Euro 2m temp forecast, I'm seeing a low of 5-9F across D-FW on Tuesday. Not far below freezing over the weekend. Down to 26 in Houston next Tuesday according to the Euro. What I don't see is the timing of arrival of sub-freezing air in the D-FW area. Euro still says around 8pm tomorrow.

For the record, the NAM drops the temp to freezing in the D-FW area at midnight tomorrow night, about 3-4 hours later than the Euro.

[sooner101]

DFW met Evan Andrews posted on his Facebook, "we should see temps above freezing Sunday afternoon. Where is he getting that from?

[SnowintheFalls]

Thanks! I saw on their social media sites that they took a lot of flack after the last event fell through and just wonder if that's the reasoning behind it. I felt bad for them. I wish people would understand how fickle Mother Nature can be and stop putting undue blame on those that are merely trying to help us!

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[gboudx]

DFW met Evan Andrews posted on his Facebook, "we should see temps above freezing Sunday afternoon. Where is he getting that from?

Maybe from the NWS since they have forecasted highs above freezing on Sunday.

[Ntxw]

JB has been hammering the idea of Dallas on his posts and twitter. You know it's serious when he deviates from the Northeast . He showed 15-20C below normal for the Red River valley for the next 5-10 period, which is just ridiculous cold.

[dhweather]

I think it was 79 in central Mississippi, it was bad. You never forget that sound of limbs breaking of the tall pines in the middle of the night and hitting the ground. Happened again in 89. Both events were a week or so without electricity. I remember people cheering as power crews from out of state came in to help.

[Longhornmaniac8]

wxman,

Can you give us your gut impressions on this one? Do you agree with the local met's conservatism with this system? What might they be looking at that the rest of us aren't seeing?

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Extended period of cold weather and winter precipitation likely over a large part of TX over the next 7 days.

Arctic air mass has invaded from Canada in the last 24 hours and heading south.

Arctic boundary currently over the TX panhandle and moving southward. Upstream air temperatures range from -1 in northern Montana to 7 at Denver and 30 just past the front at Amarillo compared to a “hot” and steamy 71 at Houston. Boundary will slice southward today likely at a faster pace than most guidance is suggesting as is usually the case with such cold shallow air masses. SE TX will remain in the warm sector today as southerly winds continue to pump low level moisture into the region ahead of the strong cold front. Dewpoints are exceeding local near shore water temperatures resulting in dense sea fog along the coast and this will continue periodically until the cold front pushes off the coast. Highs will again push into the 80’s today just short of records for the 4th.

Thursday:

Arctic boundary arrives into SE TX. Models are in decent agreement on the frontal timing and have the front very near College Station around sunrise and near Houston by 300-600pm. This will play havoc with forecasted high temperatures on Thursday as highs will be pre front and lows will be post front. A good part of the area may reach 75-80 degrees before the bottom falls out by Thursday afternoon/evening. Post frontal temperatures will fall quickly into the 50’s and then 40’s with gusty north winds. Expect a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm along the frontal boundary, but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected nor severe weather.

Thursday night-Friday evening:

Arctic high builds into the area with the slow moving front pushing offshore. Temperatures will be falling through the entire period from the 50’s into the 40’s by Friday morning and the 30’s during the day on Friday under strong N winds, clouds, and rain. Forecast soundings show a shallow cold air mass only about 1000 ft thick above the surface with a significant warm nose atop the surface cold dome up to around 12,000 ft. Moisture will overrun the shallow cold dome keeping clouds and rainfall going into Friday making it a miserably cold, wet, and windy day. Could see a few locations fall to near freezing during the day on Friday from north of College Station to north of Huntsville, but do not expect any icing impacts during the day Friday. NAM shows College Station very near freezing by 600am Friday morning, but this model is running about 1-2 degrees colder than the GFS model.

Friday night-Saturday:

Cold air continues to draw down into the region from what will be an ice covered north TX by this point. Will likely see the freezing line penetrate our region during the evening hours Friday and slowly drop southward overnight. GFS sounding for CLL shows the temperature falling to below freezing between 600pm and midnight on Friday, but not at Conroe. Think the surface freezing line will be somewhere along or near a Brenham to north of Conroe to Livingston line Saturday morning. Main jet dynamics shift eastward late Friday and suspect a decrease in rain chances Friday night. Given the continued overrunning pattern in place, very light rain or drizzle could continue much of the night. Sounding profiles in the sub-freezing area show a large warm nose continues above the surface…so this would be a freezing drizzle set up. Could see some light accumulations of ice from Friday evening to mid-morning Saturday north of a Brenham to Conroe to Livingston Line. All areas south of this line will remain just warm enough to keep anything that falls in the liquid form. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 30’s north to near 40 along the coast with continued N winds.

Saturday night-Sunday:

Jet streak moves into the region late on Saturday helping to enhance lift and increase precipitation. Not sure our northern counties will get much above freezing on Saturday so once again the threat for freezing rain enters the picture for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Could see a little bit more of the area drop to below freezing Saturday evening with the freezing line possibly from north of Columbus to Hempstead to Conroe to Livingston. Profiles continue to show a good warm nose so the P-type would be freezing rain if the surface is sub-freezing. Could again see some ice accumulations across our northern counties during this period especially on elevated surface such as tree limbs and power lines. By this point the air temperatures would have also cooled elevated bridges and overpasses to near the freezing point so some ice on those surface could be possible by Sunday morning. Pretty hard this far out to determine where the freezing line will end up and how much precipitation may fall. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid to upper 30’s north to the mid 40’s along the coast.

Sunday night-Monday:

Secondary surge of very cold arctic air arrives around Monday helping to prolong this cold spell. GFS has been flipping all around with the amount of cold air that dumps southward with some runs showing bitter cold with lows well into the 20’s across the area by the middle of next week and others showing lows in the 30’s. ECMWF model yesterday agreed with the colder GFS solutions showing 1’s as far south as N TX by the middle of next week. Teleconnections continue to favor arctic air dumps into the US for the next 5-10 days.

It is very possible that some locations across our area will fall below 50 degrees on Thursday and not rise above 50 again until sometime mid to late next week.

Note:

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for a large part of N TX for the accumulation of ice from freezing rain. This will be a prolonged winter weather event with ice accumulation likely from late Thursday through Monday of next week….possibly longer. Travel N of SE TX this weekend will be extremely hazardous and continued ice accumulations on trees and power lines may result in widespread power outages across portions of N TX.

As with any winter weather threat this far south the uncertainty is large and the forecast will be changing over the next few days.

[david30]

What do you folks think about NW MS along the Hwy 82 corridor as the local NWS is forcasting 3-5 inches of rain through the weekend after the front passes. So far they have been conservative in saying some icing could occur but we are typically in a cold air drainage area of the delta with a situation like this. If they are off by 1-2 degrees it could be catastrophic. Do you think temps will end up trending colder?

[wxman57]

I plotted a couple of meteograms that include the 850mb temperature (red dashed line). GFS is on top, NAM is on bottom. Don't have one from the Euro, but it's colder than the GFS for next week:

[downsouthman1]

Are Mods no longer saying to not use this thread? Just wanna know before I post anything else in here.

[wxman57]

wxman,

Can you give us your gut impressions on this one? Do you agree with the local met's conservatism with this system? What might they be looking at that the rest of us aren't seeing?

Made a couple meteograms for Austin. GFS is a good bit colder than the NAM. I'm thinking all the ice problems will be to your north at least for this weekend.

[ludosc]

Texas Snowman, interesting story you posted a few pages back. We're gonna make our preps today.

We have DirecTV and I've read mixed reviews on spraying the dish with cooking spray to keep ice form accumulating. Has anyone ever tried this and have an experience to share? If ice forms on the dish, we'll be without TV until I can get it off, or it melts.

Worked like a charm for me during super bowl week two years ago although that was more snow than ice.

[stormlover2013]

This is from my weather buddy in the houston area.

Good morning everyone,

You're probably waking up right now thinking, what is he doing writing a winter weather email when it is close to 70 degrees outside. Well, as many of you know and have heard already, this is a sign of things to come, that's for sure. Usually, ahead of these very strong cold fronts, you will get a big time warm up before the bottom falls out for the temperatures. So, for southeast Texas, what does this pose for us? And for those of you who live elsewhere such as Central Texas, Louisiana, the west and east coast, here is what you can also expect. The main part of this email will be talking about what is going to go on over the next several days across the Southern Plains.

First off, for those of you along the west coast, there will be very little impact in your neck of the woods. For those of you in the Carolinas along with Virginia, you could see a mixed bag of precip over the next 3-5 days.

However, for those of you across Texas, here is what we can expect.

A look at this mornings surface map. This shows the northwest winds against the southerly winds across Southeast Oklahoma. This is the positioning of the front. It will slow some today across Northern Texas and the progress southward throughout the day tomorrow and should push offshore by very late tomorrow.

This is a Canadian type of front and the cold air with this air mass is extremely shallow (about 2,000-4,000 feet thick) which is definitely not unusual (as you may know cold air is very dense.) With that being said, that is why parts of Texas could expect a very significant freezing rain event late this week and into the upcoming weekend.

Here is what I am thinking is going to occur for Central and Southeast Texas Thursday through Sunday.

First off, the front will continue to push south today (as mentioned above) across North Texas and should push across the Dallas-Fort Worth region by this afternoon. I am expecting the front to move across Austin-San Antonio by Thursday morning and then downtown Houston by the mid to late afternoon time frame. I am thinking the Beaumont area by about the same time and then further across Louisiana likely by Friday.

A short wave (http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12) that is depicted on the water vapor imagery (the spin in the western US) will slow move south and the east on Thursday. This will spread moisture (we call that overrunning when you have moisture behind a cold front) across the northern parts of the state first and then spread south throughout the day on Thursday. Moisture across all of Texas will start out in the liquid form. However, as the cold air (at the surface) oozes south, temps will fall into the 30s across Dallas-Fort Worth and Oklahoma and likely the 40s along Interstate 10 in Texas. As temps fall to near freezing across central and north Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, the rain will begin to transition to freezing rain and possibly sleet.

You may be asking why no snow with this system... See the description below...

http://ellerbruch.nmu.edu/classes/cs255 ... ation.html

You will see in the link above that there is a very cold layer several thousand feet up, then you have a warm layer aloft and then at the surface, you're looking at temps near freezing. Depending on how thick that layer of sub freezing temps are, you could be looking at the difference in significant icing versus sleet. I am thinking a decent icing event is in store for areas of north and central Texas.

First off, I will say for folks who live along interstate 10 from Beaumont to Houston, you will likely see all rain through this event. One round of rain on Thursday and into Friday and then Saturday will be a very gloomy and dreary day with drizzle and then another round of rain again on Saturday night into Sunday. If there is a day I would be more concerned about seeing the better chance of a wintry mix, that would be Sunday morning time frame where temps will be in the 30s. For areas across Huntsville, Conroe, the Woodland, Jasper, Lufkin, Austin and points north could see a light glazing Thursday night into Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday. Once again, the best chance of seeing a wintry mix of some sort coming on Saturday night into Sunday.

For Dallas, Fort Worth, Tyler, Texarkana, Little Rock, Oklahoma City areas, they could be looking at a couple rounds of wintry weather. One coming Thursday night into Friday morning and another by late in the weekend. Temps will likely stay at or below freezing for an extended period of time Thursday evening through early next week. One half to one inch ice accumulations are possible with lighter amounts (1/4") near Austin and possibly towards San Antonio.

Temps across the Houston, Beaumont and along I-10 will likely see temps not get above 50 through the next week as this air settles in across much of the country. Another surge comes in on Wednesday before a gradual warm up by the end of next week.

Most areas will also likely not see the sunshine for several days either. Maybe a few peeks on Saturday and then again by the middle part of next week.

Stay tuned for further developments of this storm. Weather models do have a hard time with an airmass like this one because the air is so shallow and models just cannot pinpoint the shallowness of the air and sometimes the precip either. I will continue to update you all on the progress of this storm.

As always, questions, please let me know or you can look me up on twitter @Nathan_Weather.

Take care everyone,

Nathan

[ndale]

Portastorm do you think the weather service here is seeing what Wxman57 does, that the most ice should stay to our north so they are just staying with the special weather statement?

[Ntxw]

Portastorm do you think the weather service here is seeing what Wxman57 does, that the most ice should stay to our north so they are just staying with the special weather statement?

I'm no Portastorm but...the northern suburbs and hill country of Austin could see a period of freezing rain. We will have to watch the surface freeze line, if it slips to your south there will be problems. Austin temps will be marginal in the 31-34 range and local dynamics could determine if it's all rain or light freezing precip.

[ndale]

Portastorm do you think the weather service here is seeing what Wxman57 does, that the most ice should stay to our north so they are just staying with the special weather statement?

I'm no Portastorm but...the northern suburbs and hill country of Austin could see a period of freezing rain. We will have to watch the surface freeze line, if it slips to your south there will be problems. Austin temps will be marginal in the 31-34 range and local dynamics could determine if it's all rain or light freezing precip.

Yeah I am in a northern suburb, right now the forecast is for some freezing rain and sleet from Thurs night to Sun.

[TheProfessor]

Ok I need you guys to give me your best answer. what percent would you give for chance of schools being canceled on friday for the dfw airport area?

[CaptinCrunch]

Artic front is well ahead of forecasted timing. front is through Childress and Guthrie TX, winds have now shifted out of the north in Vernon as well as Lawton OK. so they have already seen their highs for the day and temps are a good 15-20 from what was forecasted. I expect the front to be into the D/FW area by 6pm which will be about 6 hrs earlier than first thought.

[Ntxw]

Ok I need you guys to give me your best answer. what percent would you give for chance of schools being canceled on friday for the dfw airport area?

That's not something we can say for certain it's up to the schools and their policies. If it were up to me, my guess is 90% they will close on Friday region wide. If they don't, based on what I see it is best to keep your kids home anyway not worth the risk. This is a high impact event as I've been using the skew-T's the metroplex will likely be an ice skating rink come Friday's commute times.