Texas Winter 2013-2014

[downsouthman1]

Funny that the TTU model which had last weeks event pegged 30 hours before the event is showing only a 20% chance of frozen precip in the DFW area as of 5PM on Friday afternoon.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php?dmn=2km&prm=sfc_frzprob&run=0

As is always said, the Lucy storms are the ones that everyone, including the models, forecasts as a high impact storm well in advance. & the actual killer storms are the ones that are underforecast.

While that might seem like the case, it's mostly like not. It's just you remember times the models were wrong more than you remember the times where they were right.

It's the same thing in sports. People remember Yu Darvish's "bad" outings or Tony Romo's interceptions, and automatically hate them for the rest of the season even though they have amazing stats.

I won't disagree with your statement.

[aggiecutter]

I've noticed several above have mentioned this event being under played be most local mets. The great ice storm of December 2000 that I referenced earlier was also under played by the local mets in my area. Before hand, there were no watches issued for the event, only the obligatory Travel Advisory with slight accumulations on bridges and overpasses.

[Ntxw]

Lets stop the comparison's between this event and last event. They are not the same, this is a potentially very dangerous situation because not only are you coupling a bad precip forecast, the TEMPERATURES are not going to work like last time. If you are in North Texas north of Waco you better be prepared or get prepared today. Likewise in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm do you think the weather service here is seeing what Wxman57 does, that the most ice should stay to our north so they are just staying with the special weather statement?

Well, I'm going to disagree with my friend wxman57 about this weekend. Granted, he has forgotten more about meteorology than I'll ever know ... but I'm basing my thoughts on what I see in the models and what I have experienced in 30 years here with these kinds of events. Here are my thoughts at the moment regarding our (Austin) weather. I think the Hill Country and northern areas (Llano, Burnet, Cedar Park, Georgetown, parts of Round Rock) will see freezing drizzle/rain during the Thursday night-Friday overnight hours. I think surface temps during that time frame will be at or below freezing and that a significant chance exists of *some* icing on bridges and overpasses in that area. I think the general Austin metro area will be ok during that timeframe. Temps have been so warm this week that it's going to take a bit of time of surface temps at or below freezing to cool it down.

But, starting Friday night and throughout the weekend, I think periods of freezing drizzle/freezing rain/sleet will occur throughout the general Austin area and temps will not climb above freezing and we'll see a cumulative effect of greater icing issues on bridges, overpasses, and less traveled roadways. I do think it's going to be much, much worse to our north.

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

[Tireman4]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.[/quote]


Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

wxman57, looking at your DFW metrograms for the Thu-Sun period, how do you explain the significant difference in the 850mb temps between the two models.

[Portastorm]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...[/quote]

I understand the concern about looking like a goof in front of a large audience ... something which I have done on more than one occasion! However, when even the weather geeks like us see the overwhelming evidence in the models and when the NWS itself is detailing the threat (has anyone read the NWSFO DFW forecast discussion issued last night around 9 p.m.? It is fantastic!), I think accountability comes into the picture. You want to hedge your bets on this storm? If you're a TV met in Austin or College Station ... ok, I get it. Yeah, there's enough uncertainty to hedge your bets in those areas. But not in the DFW area. That's just stoopid.

[Tireman4]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...

I understand the concern about looking like a goof in front of a large audience ... something which I have done on more than one occasion! However, when even the weather geeks like us see the overwhelming evidence in the models and when the NWS itself is detailing the threat (has anyone read the NWSFO DFW forecast discussion issued last night around 9 p.m.? It is fantastic!), I think accountability comes into the picture. You want to hedge your bets on this storm? If you're a TV met in Austin or College Station ... ok, I get it. Yeah, there's enough uncertainty to hedge your bets in those areas. But not in the DFW area. That's just stoopid.[/quote]

I totally agree with you. I get it. Not sure that they do...

[downsouthman1]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...

I understand the concern about looking like a goof in front of a large audience ... something which I have done on more than one occasion! However, when even the weather geeks like us see the overwhelming evidence in the models and when the NWS itself is detailing the threat (has anyone read the NWSFO DFW forecast discussion issued last night around 9 p.m.? It is fantastic!), I think accountability comes into the picture. You want to hedge your bets on this storm? If you're a TV met in Austin or College Station ... ok, I get it. Yeah, there's enough uncertainty to hedge your bets in those areas. But not in the DFW area. That's just stoopid.[/quote]


I read it. I thought it was Cavanaugh but it was not.

[joshskeety]

KDFW this morning was pretty bullish on this storm this morning basically telling all in the Metroplex to get things in order..

But, speaking on this.. There is much more colder air in this arctic front than was there on the last. Some worry about warm air layering from the warmer nose can be a concern, but the reality is that one usually only sees that in very shallow cold air where the warm nose ends at 1,000-2,000 feet above surface.. That isn't the situation here. There is most definitely going to be a warm nose, so for those thinking a chance for snow.. Sorry.. Anything but.. In fact, I don't even see sleet in any of the skew's that I have seen, however once the surge of colder air comes down, that possibility does exist if the warm nose gets above 4,000 feet and that rain is able to refreeze in 24-28 degree air. Warm nose ends pretty abruptly at about 4,000 feet, so basically what one will see is super chilled water that is coming down on the onset of this storm. It will not take much for freezing to occur.

The ONLY saving grace is the fact that it will be, and has been in the upper 70's so ground temps will start out warm. However.. There is always a misconception about ground temp. Temps (Parker County) will dip quickly into the mid 20's Thursday night into Friday Morning. With the super chilled rain hitting the ground, it will take just an hour or two for even the warmest of ground temps to dip below freezing. Not to mention that most likely, despite what the NWS is showing long term, we will most likely not get above freezing again until early week after next and even then it shows another storm coming though and possibly another Arctic surge..

I only see ground temps make a play in the storm of last week in which air temps are 30/31 degrees, it was the first real long cold, temps were in the mid 80's for days before. Even then places such as Graham and Mineral Wells began having black ice forming.

This time, we have had multiple days below freezing, temps have been in the 70's but only for 2 days, ground temps are much cooler starting out than they were with the last storm. Air temps will be much colder, there is not dry air slot this time around.


Btw, I am not a Meteorologist, nor am I making a forecast. I don't make Forecasts, just analyze model consensus.

[david30]

Porta, what are your thoughts based on recent trends for NW MS, we are actually farther north in latitude than DFW along hwy 82 right at the river. Normally, the cold air drains through the flat land and we end up colder, right now our NWS is not quite sure whats going to happen here.

[gboudx]

Case in point, I'm discussing it with my coworkers and they looked at me like I was nuts when I told them this is looking like a major ice storm. They told me the TV mets this morning said it wouldn't be too bad and aren't making much of a big deal out of it. I didn't watch any local TV this morning so I don't know if that's true or not. I told them the prep I'm doing and best case, we have a bunch of non-perishable food to consume.

[Ntxw]

Not much saving grace from the GFS. It starts and finishes pretty much mostly all frozen. Good duration of freezing rain and changing to sleet towards the end. GFS is notorious for being on low end of QPF not the case here.

[SouthernMet]

I agree.. There's a fine line between "being conservative" & being just downright reckless and irresponsible.. Saying things like "northern counties MAY see a light glaze on bridges/overpasses", 24 hours out from the event, is a bit underplaying it..

Stay tuned

[CaptinCrunch]

Even the thinnest of ice or sleet over the ground will create a thermal barrier allowing ice and sleet to quickly start accumulating even with ground temps above freezing.

[joshskeety]

Btw.. Not sure if you guys just saw the latest GFS, but it just blew up the moisture and got even colder.. Now showing QPF for the metroplex well over 1.0-1.25 and points north east over 1.5 QPF..

My neck of the woods (Parker county) temps about 24 degrees and about 1.0-1.10 QPF which winds at 20-25MPH..

Granted, about .20 QPF of this falls as regular rain Thursday early evening..

Bulk of it seems to be from about 2AM Friday morning to about noon..

Josh

[Portastorm]

Porta, what are your thoughts based on recent trends for NW MS, we are actually farther north in latitude than DFW along hwy 82 right at the river. Normally, the cold air drains through the flat land and we end up colder, right now our NWS is not quite sure whats going to happen here.

Honestly haven't had much time to look at any area other than Texas. A quick perusal of the Winter Weather Discussion out of NWS in Washington, D.C., suggests it's going to be a real close call for y'all. I'd certainly recommend staying up on the latest forecasts. Parts of south central and southeast Arkansas are likely to see ice and I know that is real close to your area.

[dhweather]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...[/quote]


They are in a tough spot. After a big "fail" last week, they are gun shy. They don't want to get the public perception out there of "crying wolf".


On the other side of that coin, does anyone complain when there is a PDS Tornado Watch, and only a few F1-2's are all that happens?

[Portastorm]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...

They are in a tough spot. After a big "fail" last week, they are gun shy. They don't want to get the public perception out there of "crying wolf".


On the other side of that coin, does anyone complain when there is a PDS Tornado Watch, and only a few F1-2's are all that happens?[/quote]

Very, very good point there! Kudos.

[joshskeety]

Btw, is it me, or does the 2nd low that comes in Saturday look a hell of a lot stronger this run.. I think what we are seeing here is although there will be limited moisture to work with that 2nd low is also going to be stronger than predicted as well.. Seems to be further south and stronger from the last run...