Texas Winter 2013-2014

Winter Weather Discussion

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Tejas89
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#681 Postby Tejas89 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:47 am

Seems like the local DFW mets would take even a potential ice storm more seriously. Those who've alluded to last week's major bust are on to something IMO.

My hunch is they'll be on board with the severity tonight and especially tomorrow a.m. I generally like all of the media mets in DFW but definitely miss Harold Taft in the winter.

If you don't like the weather (forecast ?).....wait 5 minutes.
That's what they say in Texas, right? Maybe it goes for the forecasters also lol.


I swear they say that everywhere I've lived or traveled except maybe the west coast. lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#682 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:50 am

Tejas89 wrote:I swear they say that literally everywhere I've lived or traveled except maybe the west coast. lol


This is true! But Texas and the plains have this specific distinction come to reality more than other places. Where else can it get to -10 and 110 in the same year? Texas/Oklahoma/Missouri/Kansas is the extreme weather zone of the country.
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#683 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:03 pm

NWS now reporting winds out of the NW in Mineral Wells.
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#684 Postby joshskeety » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:08 pm

Winds in Springtown have been out of the NW for over an hour now.. Light, but as the NWS stated the bulk of the cold air is 12-18h behind the front as mixing in the upper air will keep temps from quickly dropping unlike what you typically see in the Blue northern scenario which is 60 degree drops in an hour..

This is more like a 30 degree drop in about 3 hour deal.. Then slowly dropping from there onward..
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#685 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:09 pm

Plotted a new meteogram for Austin with the 12Z GFS. It's a couple of degrees colder on Friday during the precip but still above freezing at the 2-meter mark. Temps could be a few deg colder in trees, on power lines and atop elevated bridges, resulting in some freezing rain. A little colder during the lighter precip on Saturday. Temps aloft (850mb/5000ft) well above freezing (red dashed line) so no snow:

Image
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#686 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:11 pm

Regarding the local mets and even the NWS, why have we gotten away from the mote traditional definition of Watch/Warning/Alert? It seems like those terms used to be defined loosely as follows:

Watch: Conditions were favorable for the development of a certain type of storm (tornado, winter storm, etc.)

Warning: The storm has developed and the occurrence of a storm is imminent.

Alert: The storm is actually happening in certain locations (specific about counties, impacts, etc.)

It seems this days, especially with Winter Storms, they gotten away from that and watch vs warning is determined by expected impact. If they got back to the old way, then with a storm like last week, they could explain in the watch that conditions were there, but that a 1 or 2 degree variance in the surface temp could make a major difference in the outcome.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#687 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:12 pm

Looking over the Skew T's for DFW, sub freezing level from Friday at midnight to 9 am is from the surface up to around 3500 feet for the duration of the event. Above freezing level is around 8000 feet thick and peaks at around 6 deg C. Dendrite growth zone appears to be almost 100 mb thick which is considered fairly deep. So it appears, due to the thickness of the above freezing level, the precip will likely stay all freezing rain instead of sleet/snow. I would suspect that the Super cooled snow flakes forming in the DGZ, falling through the warm nose, should negate any concern for warm air transport down to the surface that the NWS office was concerned about.

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#688 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:13 pm

And here's a new plot for Dallas-Ft. Worth. I certainly would think there may be a significant ice storm should this GFS forecast verify. Freezing rain starting before sunrise Friday and we're not talking trace amounts. The 3hr precip totals add up to about 1.5".

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#689 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:14 pm

The latest out of NWSFO DFW:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND
PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER WHILE A WEDGE OF WARM WESTERLY WINDS WAS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO LAMPASAS
LINE. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE VERY WARM THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
NORTHERN AREAS TURN COOLER. THIS FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN AND MAY NOT MOVE SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE BEFORE SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20/I-30 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE LIKE THE CURRENT
WATCH. ITS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TRYING TO DECIDE ACTUALLY WHERE AND
WHEN THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND ALL SLEET WILL BE DURING ANY
ONE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FEEL
THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
ALONG THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH RUNS FROM COMANCHE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND INTO THE BONHAM/PARIS REGION. WE EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT ICE TO DEVELOP FIRST ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES AND
SURFACES...THEN ON ROADWAYS ONCE THEY REACH FREEZING ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

ALTHOUGH A FEW CRITICAL PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE FOR THE BETTER OR
WORSE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...OUR CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH MAJOR IMPACTS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
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#690 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:15 pm

Anyone know what speed the front is moving at currently, and the expected speed over the next 24 hrs?

Never mind- Porta's post just answered my question.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#691 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:And here's a new plot for Dallas-Ft. Worth. I certainly would think there may be a significant ice storm should this GFS forecast verify. Freezing rain starting before sunrise Friday and we're not talking trace amounts. The 3hr precip totals add up to about 1.5".


With the front ahead of projections, are we ( Houston) looking at a 9 am arrival instead of 3 pm on Thursday?
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#692 Postby sooner101 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:23 pm

Anyone else watching the front on the wunderground map? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ It's crazy to see temps near 80, and then to the northwest temps are in lower 40s. Seems like the front is approaching DFW pretty quickly..
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#693 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:23 pm

Denver was 57F at noon yesterday. They are sitting at 5F right now. What a difference a day makes!
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#694 Postby downsouthman1 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:27 pm

sooner101 wrote:Anyone else watching the front on the wunderground map? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ It's crazy to see temps near 80, and then to the northwest temps are in lower 40s. Seems like the front is approaching DFW pretty quickly..

It's more reliable to track the front here: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

or http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap3.php?map=usa & select your desired zone.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#695 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:31 pm

Portastorm wrote:The latest out of NWSFO DFW:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND
PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER WHILE A WEDGE OF WARM WESTERLY WINDS WAS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO LAMPASAS
LINE. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE VERY WARM THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE
NORTHERN AREAS TURN COOLER. THIS FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN AND MAY NOT MOVE SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE BEFORE SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20/I-30 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE LIKE THE CURRENT
WATCH. ITS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TRYING TO DECIDE ACTUALLY WHERE AND
WHEN THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND ALL SLEET WILL BE DURING ANY
ONE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FEEL
THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
ALONG THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH RUNS FROM COMANCHE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND INTO THE BONHAM/PARIS REGION. WE EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT ICE TO DEVELOP FIRST ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES AND
SURFACES...THEN ON ROADWAYS ONCE THEY REACH FREEZING ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

ALTHOUGH A FEW CRITICAL PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE FOR THE BETTER OR
WORSE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...OUR CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH MAJOR IMPACTS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA CONTINUES TO INCREASE.



I will be very surprised if the evening crew here at the FTW NWS don't expand the Winter Storm Warning to include all of the current Watch area with that small statement at the end. ...
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#696 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:42 pm

Off topic
My Friend wants to know if there is a chance for thunder with frozen precip?
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#697 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:44 pm

Thought this is a good time to post here from FW site.

Image

Wxman57's preparation thoughts: Hop on a plane and fly to the Bahamas.
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#698 Postby ndale » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:48 pm

If the weather service here does post warnings I am concerned some of the public won't take it seriously because of some of the missed forecasts in the past if wintry weather is predicted some of my family and friends just say they predicted that before and nothing materializes.

I also notice the weather service here is very slow to post updates the last 2 days, I am sure they are trying to sort thru all the data and trying to decide what to predict.
Last edited by ndale on Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#699 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:51 pm

Seems the cold front is aproching roanoke. Only a light wind from the north right now, but I can feel the temperature dropping.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#700 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:54 pm

I think we will start to hear a very different tune from the local mets this afternoon. There is nothing impeding this and the models just get worse.
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