Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

I think we will start to hear a very different tune from the local mets this afternoon. There is nothing impeding this and the models just get worse.

From Channel 8's Pete Delkus on Facebook:

"I'm hoping for snowmaggedeon but it's looking like ICEMAGGEDEON!!"

[Annie Oakley]

Off topic
My Friend wants to know if there is a chance for thunder with frozen precip?

Who is your friend, and why does he wanna know...... How does he know about Thundersleet

[Texas Snowman]

Several things that ratchet up my concern level a few degrees with this potential ice storm in North Texas:

1. Many trees still have some foliage remaining. That could increase the potential for ice buildup on trees which could lead to even more significant power grid damage.

2. The amount of ice buildup could cause significant damage to the power grid and long term power outages.

3. A bitter cold air mass may lead to single digit readings next week in areas where these power outages occur. That could be dangerous to deadly for those who don't have any means to heat their homes aside from electricity.

Given the coming cold and amount of precip being suggested, I think we may be seeing the set up for a historic ice event.

Pretty serious stuff if you ask me.

[dhweather]

Thundersleet was totally awesome last Christmas morning. That is until it knocked out electricity out about 4AM. Made Santa a blast, 58 degrees inside the house and no electricity (or heat) when the kids woke up.

[TheProfessor]

He likes winter weather and knows a lot about it. He wants to know because it is his favorite type of weather.

Ps he wants to join the board.but is wating for activation.

[dhweather]

I think the very warm temperatures will help us alot on the front end of this. Soils, concrete all will retain heat for some time. So the question becomes how long? My GUESS is it will be sometime Friday afternoon/night before ice accumulates on anything on the ground. Elevated surfaces, things above 2 meters, different story.

I'm still counting on the fact that the guys were pruning trees yesterday on the main lines that ultimately feed my house will result in nothing but a cold rain.

Regardless of precip type, 1.5 inches of rain would be helpful for drought conditions. Sadly, major icing damage is a real possibility with this system.

I was driving 35/635 yesterday, all these new bridges being built, man, what a mess that will all be in these types of events once it opens up.

[Texas Snowman]

Steve McCauley on Facebook: "Hello everyone...I am in class right now, but I just took a sneak peak at the new data sets coming in, and they show nothing new. The Metroplex is going to be entombed in ice. And a full-blown McFarland Signature will follow dropping temperatures to levels we have not seen in years.

I'll be making new maps, although I don't think they are going to look much different from the ones I have already posted.

Folks...this is serious. I have never seen the Stat Method be so consistent for so many days in a row, but I will be thoroughly elated if it turns out to be consummately wrong!"

[Annie Oakley]

Now is the time for all good Mets to come to the aid of the public, and explain :"McFarland Signature"

[Texas Snowman]

Think of it as the pipeline, or set-up for a direct discharge of bitterly cold arctic air into the region.

Edit: Info and photo below are from a Steve McCauley Facebook post:

"Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse ...A full-blown McFarland Signature is trying to develop across the United States. This is a flow pattern which looks like a backwards "S" in the upper-level winds which effectively dislodges large areas of arctic air and sends them hurtling down into Texas."

[gboudx]

"entombed in ice"

That only sounds good if he's talking about beer.

[weatherdude1108]

I''m enjoying reading all the posts here more than posting! Every time I check back, the pages have advanced a couple pages. So I'm already behind the info. curve and read instead of potentially repeating another's post.

Anyway, thanks for your help in advance and all the fun post readings! I'm thinking freezing drizzle at least down here and 26 for a low by next Tuesday. Here's to huddling up to the fire with a warm choice beverage!

What is a McFarland Signature?

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Steve McCauley on Facebook: "Hello everyone...I am in class right now, but I just took a sneak peak at the new data sets coming in, and they show nothing new. The Metroplex is going to be entombed in ice. And a full-blown McFarland Signature will follow dropping temperatures to levels we have not seen in years.

I'll be making new maps, although I don't think they are going to look much different from the ones I have already posted.

Folks...this is serious. I have never seen the Stat Method be so consistent for so many days in a row, but I will be thoroughly elated if it turns out to be consummately wrong!"

I saw that too just awhile ago on facebook. NWS fort worth just posted a video highlighting their growing confidence in impacts throughout the metroplex. Looks like this is one for the storybooks, wish it was snow instead of ice. I thought things like this only happen when Jerry Jones wants to hold super bowls:) Although with the McFarland Signature looking for real, that may look like a picnic compared to this.

How long has the McFarland Signature been thrown around on this board, and here we finally have one staring us in the face. Are we happy, lol? This is the kind of weather fun you have when waiting on a hurricane, it's fun to track and hypothesize, but blows once it smacks you in the face.


I'm mainly a lurker on the board, so when I actually post, it's usually bad, lol.

[Texas Snowman]

Funny thing is I kind of feel like this McFarland snuck up on us.

We've been talking about this cold air on the board for a while but I don't remember the McFarland Signature coming up in conversations until a day or two ago.

In years past, we were talking about possible signatures a week or two in advance - and they didn't materialize!

[Meteorcane]

Now is the time for all good Mets to come to the aid of the public, and explain :"McFarland Signature"

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

I recommend skimming towards the bottom to see exactly how to identify it using 500h maps

[Annie Oakley]

Let me re-phrase my query:

What the he** is a Mc Sig?

[gboudx]

MacFarland is a jet stream pattern that brings arctic air deep into Texas. I believe a cross-polar flow is part of it.

[joshskeety]

In basic terms a McFarland Signature is a rare occurrence in which the Arctic air due to the Jetstream pictured above forces all of the arctic might southward. The way it was explained to me was.. This of if the earth's magnetic pole shifted to South Dakota and it became the Arctic.. But only for a couple of weeks..

Basically what it means is the full on brunt of the Arctic is about to paint its fury across the United States for a while.. If you LOVE what North Dakota feels like in a typical winter then that is what people in Texas will see for a while.. Also, they are known for allowing the dreaded Greenland blocks which basically locks up the Jetstreams in such a way that it allows for storms to travel, most likely keeping the Southern Jet active and locked into place for a while..

[wxman57]

12Z NAM indicates freezing rain in the D-FW area from early Friday morning through Noon:

[Texas Snowman]

Look at the image above. It is a very rare upper air pattern that can bring us our coldest arctic air invasions.

McCauley's statement is pretty good and simple: "This is a flow pattern which looks like a backwards "S" in the upper-level winds which effectively dislodges large areas of arctic air and sends them hurtling down into Texas."

[Texas Snowman]

In basic terms a McFarland Signature is a rare occurrence in which the Arctic air due to the Jetstream pictured above forces all of the arctic might southward. The way it was explained to me was.. This of if the earth's magnetic pole shifted to South Dakota and it became the Arctic.. But only for a couple of weeks..

Basically what it means is the full on brunt of the Arctic is about to paint its fury across the United States for a while.. If you LOVE what North Dakota feels like in a typical winter then that is what people in Texas will see for a while.. Also, they are known for allowing the dreaded Greenland blocks which basically locks up the Jetstreams in such a way that it allows for storms to travel, most likely keeping the Southern Jet active and locked into place for a while..

What is a McFarland Signature? It is Wxman57's absolute WORST wintertime nightmare!