Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Internet was out for a bit this morning, back up, i saw Steves post last night. Yeah, looks nasty, are we lacking a 'polar vortex' though? Typically it sets up just west of Hudson bay and swings nasty cold air into the US

I see you Polar Vortex

http://forums.khou.com/download/file.php?id=7226&t=1

Oh hey, there it is

[ndale]

How large is the "warm nose" layer, will it cover central Tx as well?

Someone on another forum posted they are glad their relative has underground utilities, our subdivision does too but what I am concerned about is the transmission lines between us and our power source. Anyway finishing my outside decorations, the next week or two want be pleasant for outside work.

[joshskeety]

How large is the "warm nose" layer, will it cover central Tx as well?

Someone on another forum posted they are glad their relative has underground utilities, our subdivision does too but what I am concerned about is the transmission lines between us and our power source. Anyway finishing my outside decorations, the next week or two want be pleasant for outside work.

Unless this gets colder, which it still can, I don't see any worries around the Austin Metro area.. Mostly just cold rain and a small amount of freezing drizzle Friday morning, but nothing to be too concerned about..

The NWS is basically platting a line from Goldewaith to Cleburne to Sulpher Springs northward.. Now on the Satuday/Sunday event which the models are really downplaying that could change...

[ravyrn]

Wxman57, check your pms. I'd like to nab that excel sheet from you that includes the 850mb temp. On the ARL site, which field do I select for the 850mb temps?

[wxman57]

How large is the "warm nose" layer, will it cover central Tx as well?

Someone on another forum posted they are glad their relative has underground utilities, our subdivision does too but what I am concerned about is the transmission lines between us and our power source. Anyway finishing my outside decorations, the next week or two want be pleasant for outside work.

Warm nose is everywhere. If your utilities are underground then they'd be OK. The main transmission lines are not as prone to have issues with light to moderate amounts of ice. They're a bit sturdier and generally nowhere near any tree branches that might fall on them.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is not as cold for TX next week. Low of 17-18F in Dallas/Ft. Worth next Tuesday and only 30F here in north Houston by Wednesday. That's a good bit different from the 5-8F in Dallas and 24-25F for Houston it had yesterday.

[Ntxw]

Can you really call it a McFarland Signature? I don't see temps dropping that drastically in the Valley, at least freezing temps.

I think people are getting confused. It is a McFarland signature by every standard in the book at 5h. The misconception is the cold this weekend is a result of a full blast attack. It is not, it is a result of the EPO shoving cold air we saw build over the Yukon. The fact that it is growing more severe is the models ghastly underestimated it. A second powerful cold air mass will arrive next Monday. If north Texas gets into the low teens or single digits it will be because of the vast snow/ice fields over the southern plains underneath a new arctic high for optimum radiation.

The Polar Vortex will begin to pinwheel in central Canada after the 10th of the month with hints of renewed Aleutian ridging. If the EPO opens up we will continue to see stronger fronts plow their way down.

[Tireman4]

HGX Afternoon AFD:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013




.AVIATION...
VISBY HAS IMPROVED FOR ALL BUT THE COAST WHERE SOME 1-2 MILE VISBY
STILL LINGERING. ADVECTION FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOULD QUICKLY WORSEN THIS EVENING
SPREADING INLAND. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WHICH FOR
SOURCE REGION MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS BE TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL BE LONGER. SO EXPECT DENSE FOG
TONIGHT FOR HOU SITES SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY REACHING IAH BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY.

NEXT ISSUE IS THE BIG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING SOUTH AND
SHOULD REACH THE CLL AREA 14-15Z THURSDAY AND IAH 17-19Z. THIS
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY IFR/LIFR WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE. FROPA WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 AND GUSTY TURNING MUCH COLDER.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION
FOR CLL/UTS AREAS THIS WEEKEND (FRI EVENING AND SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY). MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
CHANGEOVER LINE SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME VERY SMALL THREAT FOR IAH
SATURDAY WITH SLEET.

ON A TECHNICAL NOTE...LVJ ASOS WILL BE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SOFTWARE UPDATE.
45


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[texas1836]

Thank you for the clairification.

[joshskeety]

Big shift in the 18zNAM..

Says, not so fast DFW, I may not have enough moisture for ya...

[Ntxw]

Big shift in the 18zNAM..

Says, not so fast DFW, I may not have enough moisture for ya...

Lets hope the other models follow suit

[TheProfessor]

Not trying to compare storms, but if the models hold true, where do you guys think this ice storm could rank amongst other storms

[TexasStorm]

Big shift in the 18zNAM..

Says, not so fast DFW, I may not have enough moisture for ya...

More than likely picking up on the front moving much faster than thought which can dry out the atmosphere somewhat.

[joshskeety]

Basically plants a big ole dry slot right over the metroplex with most of the Metroplex barely getting .25 QPF if that..

Heavy snow up north, Moderate rain down south and a couple of hours of ice.. Enough to cause a dent, but ain't going to shut down any schools if this verifies..

hmmmmm... New model trend?

[ColdFusion]

Big shift in the 18zNAM..

Says, not so fast DFW, I may not have enough moisture for ya...

Ah, there it is. At least this time I didn't persuade relatives to cancel travel plans. Forecasting a DFW winter precip event is futile.

[sooner101]

Just read on twitter that Jim Cantore is on his way to Dallas.

[Ntxw]

Just read on twitter that Jim Cantore is on his way to Dallas.

We're in for it now The Cantore Curse!

[TheProfessor]

Exactly what I was thinking

[Meteorcane]

Basically plants a big ole dry slot right over the metroplex with most of the Metroplex barely getting .25 QPF if that..

Heavy snow up north, Moderate rain down south and a couple of hours of ice.. Enough to cause a dent, but ain't going to shut down any schools if this verifies..

hmmmmm... New model trend?

I don't know how much faith I would put in the models correctly forecasting a dry slot this far out (note that the gradient in precip is naturally very sharp in dry slot events and a slight adjustment in either direction will make a large difference in precipitation accumulation).

[joshskeety]

According to the NAM looking at the 12z compared to the 18z is for either the NAM as overestimated the southern trend or underestimated it.. In other words the "dry slot" was north of the Metroplex at 12z, now its right at.. So if you are all excited about Ice then you either hope the trend continues in which would bring colder air in and possibly sleet, or it overestimated and it sets up the way it was..

Will be interesting to see if the GFS follows suite here in a couple of hours..