Texas Winter 2013-2014

[South Texas Storms]

Big shift in the 18zNAM..

Says, not so fast DFW, I may not have enough moisture for ya...

Ah, there it is. At least this time I didn't persuade relatives to cancel travel plans. Forecasting a DFW winter precip event is futile.

Winter weather forecasting is very difficult in Texas as all of the ingredients don't come together very often for wintry precipitation, especially across the southern half of the state.
One model run shouldn't change how we view the upcoming event. This still has the potential to be a major ice storm across north Texas. Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend though.

[orangeblood]

Basically plants a big ole dry slot right over the metroplex with most of the Metroplex barely getting .25 QPF if that..

Heavy snow up north, Moderate rain down south and a couple of hours of ice.. Enough to cause a dent, but ain't going to shut down any schools if this verifies..

hmmmmm... New model trend?

One 18Z model run is not a trend

[joshskeety]

Basically plants a big ole dry slot right over the metroplex with most of the Metroplex barely getting .25 QPF if that..

Heavy snow up north, Moderate rain down south and a couple of hours of ice.. Enough to cause a dent, but ain't going to shut down any schools if this verifies..

hmmmmm... New model trend?

One 18Z model run is not a trend

Didnt say it was.. I asked if it the start of one..

Read..the...words...that...are...coming...out... Scratch that....... That...I...wrote...with...a...keyboard...

lol!

[TwisterFanatic]

You guys are talking about the 18z NAM...

[Portastorm]

How large is the "warm nose" layer, will it cover central Tx as well?

Someone on another forum posted they are glad their relative has underground utilities, our subdivision does too but what I am concerned about is the transmission lines between us and our power source. Anyway finishing my outside decorations, the next week or two want be pleasant for outside work.

Unless this gets colder, which it still can, I don't see any worries around the Austin Metro area.. Mostly just cold rain and a small amount of freezing drizzle Friday morning, but nothing to be too concerned about..

The NWS is basically platting a line from Goldewaith to Cleburne to Sulpher Springs northward.. Now on the Satuday/Sunday event which the models are really downplaying that could change...

I'm not in agreement at all with your assessment about the Austin area, especially considering the Winter Weather Prediction desk out of NWS national has upped our chances of freezing rain for late Friday into Saturday. Furthermore, the models are not "downplaying" anything when it comes to south central Texas. In fact the trend over the last 12-18 hours is for the models to be ratcheting up the concerns.

[natlib]

Winter Storm warning now in affect for the Big Country (Abilene) and Winter Weather Advisory for the Concho Valley (San Angelo). I have a feeling I'll wake up to Winter Storm Warnings in my area tomorrow.

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison of the 12Z and 18Z NAM runs for Dallas-Ft. Worth. About half the precip of the 12Z run but with the temperature 1-2 deg colder. Still forecasts from .30 to .40 inches of rain with sub-freezing temps. A significant event.

18Z NAM:


12Z NAM:

[Tejas89]

I'm guessing some records were set SW of DFW this afternoon. Big pocket of mid 80's from San Angelo up to Stephenville.

[joshskeety]

You guys are talking about the 18z NAM...

True.. It failed miserably last round.. But who knows.. Just have to read the models and look at the trends..

Some on here think Im putting a knife in this storm.. Hardly.. Good lord people I disagree with.. I wouldn't dare do that.. HOWEVER... it is important to read what they are trying to say... That is why our hard earned tax dollars got put into these super-computers...

[Portastorm]

Changes coming shortly out of NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth re: watches and warnings. Stay tuned.

[South Texas Storms]

There should be several interesting AFDs this afternoon. Will likely be coming out within the next hour.

[Tireman4]

There should be several interesting AFDs this afternoon. Will likely be coming out within the next hour.

Agreed. Agreed.

[Ntxw]

No interest for the ukmet? It's in line with the GFS and Euro, a very severe event

[Portastorm]

Check your PMs, Ntxw.

[South Texas Storms]

Here's a look at the 18z High-Res NAM snow totals for the next 60 hours.
The band of high totals southeast of DFW is likely from heavy freezing rain/sleet. The NAM likely isn't picking up on the warm nose in the lower atmosphere.



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[iorange55]

Some of you guys crack me up. Please don't change your plans based on one model run from the 18z NAM. As Wxman57 shows above, even though it's drier, it would still be a significant ice event.

I don't want an ice storm either, but it's best to prepare now. I'm taking this storm very seriously.

[TwisterFanatic]

No interest for the ukmet? It's in line with the GFS and Euro, a very severe event

The Canadian is crazy as usual too. lol

[SouthernMet]

DFW/NWS issues Winter Storm Warning. Ice Storm warnings already up for parts of OK

[joshskeety]

I dont think anyone is doing that, I think its just showing one model run and discussion on it.. I don't think anyone here is about to bet their farm on any of it..

Good lord, you woulda just thought someone stabbed your Grandmother when one model run doesn't go right.. lol

[South Texas Storms]

:P Some of you guys crack me up. Please don't change your plans based on one model run from the 18z NAM. As Wxman57 shows above, even though it's drier, it would still be a significant ice event.

I don't want an ice storm either, but it's best to prepare now. I'm taking this storm very seriously.

Yeah people in north Texas should definitely still be taking this storm seriously. Now is the time to prepare before conditions go downhill beginning tomorrow.