Ntxw wrote:joshskeety wrote:I dont think anyone is doing that, I think its just showing one model run and discussion on it.. I don't think anyone here is about to bet their farm on any of it..
Good lord, you woulda just thought someone stabbed your Grandmother when one model run doesn't go right.. lol
This is a very sensitive situation. The disaster potential for a large population is at risk, we're just all very uneasy right now. People are traveling through due to the holidays and Friday is a very busy commute day. At this time is it not worth it to downplay the risk until we get definitive trend. Folks in North Texas and Oklahoma should treat this accordingly to the guidance the NWS has put out lately.
Maybe your right, but AFDFTW isn't exactly thinking its going to be anything like that.. The wording here basically is.. Bleh... Meh... Maybe...
Ive seen stronger wording in Alberta Clippers than this...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WE/VE UPGRADED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE AND ADDED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEASTWARD TO A TEMPLE TO PALESTINE
LINE.
TODAY/S FRONT HAS REACHED A NORTH OF PARIS TO EASTLAND LINE BY 2
PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR IS
SPREADING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL INVADE NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT DUE TO FRONTAL LIFTING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH ON
THURSDAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS
FREEZING RAIN BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MID EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
HAMILTON TO DALLAS TO PARIS LINE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED FROM
COMANCHE TO SHERMAN. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IF THIS RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...THEN A SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM COULD DEVELOP IF TEMPERATURES CAN FALL INTO THE 20S.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A CASE WHERE RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT GAINS ENOUGH HEAT TO PREVENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING RAIN REMAINS
HARD TO DETERMINE. IT COULD REMAIN WEST OF THE METROPLEX THROUGH
FRIDAY MIDDAY OR IT COULD MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY ANY TOKEN...TEMPERATURES
ABOVE HOUSE TOPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND STRUCTURES...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN POWER
LINES AND TREE LIMBS...AND MAKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ICY.
AS THE FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY...SLEET WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SLEET AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL UP TO ONE HALF INCH. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL RETURN
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE 40 DEGREES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LOWS WILL VARY DAY TO DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME RED RIVER
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY MORNING.