Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Ntxw
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Re:

#781 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:25 pm

joshskeety wrote:I dont think anyone is doing that, I think its just showing one model run and discussion on it.. I don't think anyone here is about to bet their farm on any of it..

Good lord, you woulda just thought someone stabbed your Grandmother when one model run doesn't go right.. lol


This is a very sensitive situation. The disaster potential for a large population is at risk, we're just all very uneasy right now. People are traveling through due to the holidays and Friday is a very busy commute day. At this time is it not worth it to downplay the risk until we get definitive trend. Folks in North Texas and Oklahoma should treat this accordingly to the guidance the NWS has put out lately.
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#782 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:27 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
214 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

TXZ248>257-051100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
214 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

...A TURN TO COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...

A VERY COLD AIR MASS...ORIGINATING IN FAR NORTHWEST CANADA AND
SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN PLAINS...WILL ARRIVE IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS AND
SCHOOL GOERS IN THE LOWER VALLEY CITIES OF BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN
AND EVEN MCALLEN MAY NOT NOTICE MUCH JUST THEN...THE ARCTIC FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE THE UPPER VALLEY AND RANCH LANDS
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

A DRAMATIC CHANGE WILL BE IN STORE FOR THOSE GOING HOME LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER. THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT
A HALT TO ANY FURTHER TEMPERATURE INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IN
FACT...MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT MAY HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE LOWER VALLEY...WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE A CHANCE OF RAIN IS BEING
FORECAST...AND THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS...AND OVERALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOW.

THE CHANGE IN WEATHER FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE MOST DRAMATIC. TEMPERATURES THAT WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 30
TO 40 DEGREES COLDER AT THE SAME TIME FRIDAY...RANGING FROM 40
DEGREES ACROSS THE RANCH LANDS TO 50 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FEELS
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT RESIDENTS GOING HOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING IN THE LOWER VALLEY MAY SENSE TEMPERATURES THAT FEEL LIKE 40
DEGREES...AND THOSE IN THE UPPER VALLEY WOULD SENSE TEMPERATURES
THAT FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IN THE 30S.

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR MUCH
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS THAT COULD APPROACH WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE
COUNTIES OF STARR...HIDALGO...WILLACY AND CAMERON WHEN WIND CHILL
INDEX VALUES DROP TO 30 DEGREES OR BELOW FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS IN A 12
HOUR PERIOD OVER A SIGNIFICANT AREA...AND 25 DEGREES OR BELOW FOR
THE COUNTIES OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND KENEDY. IN
ADDITION... WIND SPEEDS MUST REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 MPH.

AFTER A DREARY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S...COLD OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL
REPEAT WITH MID 30S NORTH AND MID 40S LOWER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. A SMATTERING OF FREEZING MARKS COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. WHILE IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER VALLEY ARE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...AND
APPEAR TO BE SAFE FOR NOW.

PREPAREDNESS MEASURES. RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...OR MOVE THEM INDOORS THURSDAY NIGHT. BRING PETS INDOORS AS
WELL. HAVE ALTERNATE SOURCES OF HEAT AND POWER AVAILABLE IN CASE THE
PRIMARY SOURCE DOES NOT WORK. A WOOD STOVE OR VENTLESS STOVE THAT
DOES NOT REQUIRE POWER WOULD BE A GOOD ALTERNATIVES. IF YOUR HOME
REQUIRES HEATING FUEL OR PROPANE...ENSURE YOU HAVE PLENTY OF FUEL IN
CASE YOUR SUPPLIER CAN NOT REACH YOU FOR DAYS. MAKE SURE YOUR FIRE
EXTINGUISHERS AND SMOKE ALARMS ARE WORKING PROPERLY. POORLY
MAINTAINED HEATING SYSTEMS ALSO LEAD TO DEATHS IN FIRES OR BY CARBON
MONOXIDE POISONING. HAVE YOUR FURNACE AND CHIMNEY CHECKED BY
PROFESSIONALS FOR PROPER OPERATION AND VENTING. DO NOT PLUG TOO MANY
ITEMS INTO AN OUTLET. DEATHS MAY RESULT FROM FIRES DUE TO OVERLOADED
ELECTRICAL CIRCUITS. ON THE FARM OR RANCH...MOVE YOUR ANIMALS TO
SHELTERED AREAS...HAUL EXTRA FEED TO FEEDING AREAS...AND HAVE WATER
AVAILABLE. MOST ANIMAL DEATHS IN WINTER ARE FROM DEHYDRATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#783 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:28 pm

I'm sure Porta is eagerly awaiting this afternoon's AFD from the Austin/SA NWS office.
I still think freezing rain is possible as far south as the Hill Country and Brazos Valley this weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#784 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:29 pm

Here is the afternoon forecast discussion out of EWX ... I have no words for this.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT IS SET TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 09Z AND INTO
AUSTIN BY 12Z AND SAT BY 15Z. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...AND BY LATE EVENING...A FEW
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY MAY BE AT RISK OF
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC
FRONT... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERRUN
THE ARCTIC AIR AND PRODUCE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PF AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 1/10 INCH...
AND SO A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LEVEL THREAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONFINE EARLY ICING TO
MAINLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS A SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME CONTINUED DRY AIR REINFORCEMENT IN THE
LOWEST 3000 FT OR MORE. LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE REDUCED TO DRIZZLE AT THE SURFACE...SO VERY LITTLE ICING IS
ANTICIPATED...DESPITE SEVERAL HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLEET SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS ON
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THIS AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE
PRIOR TO THANKSGIVING. IF ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS DETECTED IN
THE BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES THAT
RESULT WOULD WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WARNING TO BE
ISSUED.

BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS IT DOES SO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WAKE SUBSIDENCE TO
CLEAR OUT SKIES AND MODIFY THE TEMPERATURES TO END THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MODEL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GFS...SHOW THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE
SHALLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THUS FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR CLEARING SKIES. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
FURTHER REINFORCED ON MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST MORNING LOWS OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED OVER MANY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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#785 Postby TexasStorm » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:31 pm

NWS FT. Worth discussion is out:


000
FXUS64 KFWD 042121
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WE/VE UPGRADED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE AND ADDED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEASTWARD TO A TEMPLE TO PALESTINE
LINE.

TODAY/S FRONT HAS REACHED A NORTH OF PARIS TO EASTLAND LINE BY 2
PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR IS
SPREADING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL INVADE NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT DUE TO FRONTAL LIFTING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH ON
THURSDAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS
FREEZING RAIN BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MID EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
HAMILTON TO DALLAS TO PARIS LINE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED FROM
COMANCHE TO SHERMAN. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IF THIS RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...THEN A SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM COULD DEVELOP IF TEMPERATURES CAN FALL INTO THE 20S.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A CASE WHERE RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT GAINS ENOUGH HEAT TO PREVENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING RAIN REMAINS
HARD TO DETERMINE. IT COULD REMAIN WEST OF THE METROPLEX THROUGH
FRIDAY MIDDAY OR IT COULD MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY ANY TOKEN...TEMPERATURES
ABOVE HOUSE TOPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND STRUCTURES...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN POWER
LINES AND TREE LIMBS...AND MAKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ICY.

AS THE FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY...SLEET WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SLEET AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL UP TO ONE HALF INCH. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL RETURN
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WITH COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE 40 DEGREES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LOWS WILL VARY DAY TO DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME RED RIVER
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY MORNING. 75
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#786 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:33 pm

Portastorm wrote:Here is the afternoon forecast discussion out of EWX ... I have no words for this.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT IS SET TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 09Z AND INTO
AUSTIN BY 12Z AND SAT BY 15Z. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...AND BY LATE EVENING...A FEW
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY MAY BE AT RISK OF
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC
FRONT... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERRUN
THE ARCTIC AIR AND PRODUCE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PF AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 1/10 INCH...
AND SO A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LEVEL THREAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONFINE EARLY ICING TO
MAINLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS A SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME CONTINUED DRY AIR REINFORCEMENT IN THE
LOWEST 3000 FT OR MORE. LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE REDUCED TO DRIZZLE AT THE SURFACE...SO VERY LITTLE ICING IS
ANTICIPATED...DESPITE SEVERAL HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLEET SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS ON
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THIS AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE
PRIOR TO THANKSGIVING. IF ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS DETECTED IN
THE BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES THAT
RESULT WOULD WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WARNING TO BE
ISSUED.

BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS IT DOES SO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WAKE SUBSIDENCE TO
CLEAR OUT SKIES AND MODIFY THE TEMPERATURES TO END THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MODEL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GFS...SHOW THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE
SHALLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THUS FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR CLEARING SKIES. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
FURTHER REINFORCED ON MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST MORNING LOWS OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED OVER MANY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


Maybe they are just playing it close to the vest, I guess.....
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Re: Re:

#787 Postby joshskeety » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:
joshskeety wrote:I dont think anyone is doing that, I think its just showing one model run and discussion on it.. I don't think anyone here is about to bet their farm on any of it..

Good lord, you woulda just thought someone stabbed your Grandmother when one model run doesn't go right.. lol


This is a very sensitive situation. The disaster potential for a large population is at risk, we're just all very uneasy right now. People are traveling through due to the holidays and Friday is a very busy commute day. At this time is it not worth it to downplay the risk until we get definitive trend. Folks in North Texas and Oklahoma should treat this accordingly to the guidance the NWS has put out lately.


Maybe your right, but AFDFTW isn't exactly thinking its going to be anything like that.. The wording here basically is.. Bleh... Meh... Maybe...

Ive seen stronger wording in Alberta Clippers than this...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WE/VE UPGRADED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE AND ADDED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEASTWARD TO A TEMPLE TO PALESTINE
LINE.

TODAY/S FRONT HAS REACHED A NORTH OF PARIS TO EASTLAND LINE BY 2
PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR IS
SPREADING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL INVADE NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT DUE TO FRONTAL LIFTING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH ON
THURSDAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS
FREEZING RAIN BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MID EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
HAMILTON TO DALLAS TO PARIS LINE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED FROM
COMANCHE TO SHERMAN. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IF THIS RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...THEN A SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM COULD DEVELOP IF TEMPERATURES CAN FALL INTO THE 20S.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A CASE WHERE RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT GAINS ENOUGH HEAT TO PREVENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING RAIN REMAINS
HARD TO DETERMINE. IT COULD REMAIN WEST OF THE METROPLEX THROUGH
FRIDAY MIDDAY OR IT COULD MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY ANY TOKEN...TEMPERATURES
ABOVE HOUSE TOPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND STRUCTURES...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN POWER
LINES AND TREE LIMBS...AND MAKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ICY.

AS THE FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY...SLEET WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SLEET AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL UP TO ONE HALF INCH. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL RETURN
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WITH COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE 40 DEGREES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LOWS WILL VARY DAY TO DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME RED RIVER
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#788 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:34 pm

How you feeling Porta? You think EWX is still being conservative?
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#789 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:34 pm

:uarrow:

So did George B. McClellan and we all saw how that worked out for him. :cheesy:
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#790 Postby joshskeety » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:35 pm

I think after last weeks gaf, ain't nobody wanting to sound the bells.. I don't blame em..

Hey ya'll, it'f fixin' to get cold and maybe ice some..

There ya go.. Alarm bells rung...
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#791 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:37 pm

Yeah, an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning is a little passive, isn't it? :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#792 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:38 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

So did George B. McClellan and we all saw how that worked out for him. :cheesy:


Yep, getting faked out by fake army men...oh my...and would not ever move unless he had enough men and finally thought he was on call from God. LOL
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Re: Re:

#793 Postby iorange55 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:38 pm

joshskeety wrote:Maybe your right, but AFDFTW isn't exactly thinking its going to be anything like that.. The wording here basically is.. Bleh... Meh... Maybe...

Ive seen stronger wording in Alberta Clippers than this...



You have to remember where we live. This is Texas and we don't get storms like this very often.

"TEMPERATURES
ABOVE HOUSE TOPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND STRUCTURES...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN POWER
LINES AND TREE LIMBS...AND MAKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ICY."

That says enough right there. It's better to prepare for power outages now. You don't want to be stuck with no food, flashlights...etc. They're not going to come out and tell everyone to stock up on canned goods, but they will give you hints.
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Re:

#794 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:40 pm

joshskeety wrote:I think after last weeks gaf, ain't nobody wanting to sound the bells.. I don't blame em..

Hey ya'll, it'f fixin' to get cold and maybe ice some..

There ya go.. Alarm bells rung...


Well considering your bell rung the loudest last week, I guess I don't blame you for sounding so bitter :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#795 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:42 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:How you feeling Porta? You think EWX is still being conservative?


I've sent you a PM and spared everyone here of my rant. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#796 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:45 pm

I'm still not seeing a significant freezing rain event in Austin (heart of the city, not communities to the north). I think there will be some freezing rain in the city but probably not enough to cause trees or tree limbs to fall on power lines and cause significant power outages. There could be some ice on elevated bridges in the city, too. Go 30-50 miles north of the center of Austin and that may be a different story as far as potential power outages and ice on surface roads. I think it'll be close, but the worst conditions will stay north of downtown Austin. And if I'm wrong, I'll buy Portastorm lunch next time I'm over there. ;-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#797 Postby ndale » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:46 pm

Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:How you feeling Porta? You think EWX is still being conservative?


I've sent you a PM and spared everyone here of my rant. :lol:


Sometimes when they predict nothing is when we get a surprise, who knows, don't know what to expect now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#798 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm still not seeing a significant freezing rain event in Austin (heart of the city, not communities to the north). I think there will be some freezing rain in the city but probably not enough to cause trees or tree limbs to fall on power lines and cause significant power outages. There could be some ice on elevated bridges in the city, too. Go 30-50 miles north of the center of Austin and that may be a different story as far as potential power outages and ice on surface roads. I think it'll be close, but the worst conditions will stay north of downtown Austin. And if I'm wrong, I'll buy Portastorm lunch next time I'm over there. ;-)



Shoot, I would make him take me to the fanciest restaurant around. :) Go Porta Go!!!
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Re: Re:

#799 Postby joshskeety » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:50 pm

orangeblood wrote:
joshskeety wrote:I think after last weeks gaf, ain't nobody wanting to sound the bells.. I don't blame em..

Hey ya'll, it'f fixin' to get cold and maybe ice some..

There ya go.. Alarm bells rung...


Well considering your bell rung the loudest last week, I guess I don't blame you for sounding so bitter :D


Nope.. I didn't ring any bells last week.. Just model watched as I don't do predictions.. In fact, I was in the chat on board for less than what we got.. So no bells rung here..

Notice when I say.. If this model verifies this is what we will see.. However, you will never see some map from me stating, this is what I think will happen.. Unless its in a chat room and we are just BSing back and forth..

I know what I think will happen with storm, but I don't make predictions so I don't get blamed on what you tried to just do.. I pity Meteorologists for that very reason.. If they are wrong they suck, if they are right, they suck.. Right?
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#800 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm still not seeing a significant freezing rain event in Austin (heart of the city, not communities to the north). I think there will be some freezing rain in the city but probably not enough to cause trees or tree limbs to fall on power lines and cause significant power outages. There could be some ice on elevated bridges in the city, too. Go 30-50 miles north of the center of Austin and that may be a different story as far as potential power outages and ice on surface roads. I think it'll be close, but the worst conditions will stay north of downtown Austin. And if I'm wrong, I'll buy Portastorm lunch next time I'm over there. ;-)


Alright!! I'll take that bet. :lol:

I agree with you about the early part of the event (Thursday-Friday). I think that's a good forecast and I feel like that's what I wrote earlier today about my own little personal forecast. Where I begin to diverge with my local office is re: their thoughts about Saturday and certainly the language about Sunday, clearing skies, moderating temps. I read that and thought "whaaaaa???!!" I see changes coming tomorrow to that forecast and that mindset. But then again, who knows ... they're the professionals and I'm just a weather weenie. What do I know. :wink:
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