Texas Winter 2013-2014

[joshskeety]

So if the qpf is all ice, what would 1.2 in of ice do to the metroplex? If it occurs it looks like schools could be canceled on Monday and maybe Tuesday

Well.. Considering what 1.2" of QPF would be in ice accumulation.. There would have to be a % based on ZR/ZL in QPF and add in some mixing because even though most don't see it in freezing rain there is small mixing going on, what the temp is.. etc. etc..

There is a took the NWS uses that I can't find that can put that into a calculator and determine the amount of ice.. My guess is it is around a half inch of ice or so..

So lets just use .25-.50

Winds after midnight tomorrow increase to 15 to 25 mph..

Using this scale..



Looks to be about a 2.. Now if the temps get down to the 23 that the NWS is stating.. We could see .50 to .75 of ice.. That bumps us up to a 3, including higher wind gusts and well.. You could see where it all goes..

[South Texas Storms]

Wow, the WPC is giving a large part of central and southeast Texas high chances of freezing rain on Saturday. It seems like at least Winter Weather Advisories will need to be issued for these areas in a few days if these trends continue to hold.



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[TrekkerCC]

So if the qpf is all ice, what would 1.2 in of ice do to the metroplex? If it occurs it looks like schools could be canceled on Monday and maybe Tuesday

My own thoughts that it will be likely, based on the evolution of the event as we know it now, that school will be cancelled on Monday. It is possible, especially if temperatures are colder than projected, that schools will be cancelled on Tuesday as well. My opinion assumes that we get a significant ice storm. There is more of a chance that rural ISDs (where roads might not be as good) of cancelling on both Monday and Tuesday if we get the event similar to what the models are projecting over the weekend.

Of course, if we don't get the precipitation (likely the fickle element in this event) expected or the temperatures are more borderline than expected, the impacts would be smaller and subsequently the chances of school being closed on Monday or Tuesday are diminished.

[joshskeety]

According to the NWS the sweet spot of the metroplex will be North western Dallas county, Northern Tarrant County, Northern Parker County, Wise county, Denton County, and Collin county..

They are calling for "significant ice" in these areas...

[Annie Oakley]

I dont think anyone is doing that, I think its just showing one model run and discussion on it.. I don't think anyone here is about to bet their farm on any of it..

Good lord, you woulda just thought someone stabbed your Grandmother when one model run doesn't go right.. lol

This is a very sensitive situation. The disaster potential for a large population is at risk, we're just all very uneasy right now. People are traveling through due to the holidays and Friday is a very busy commute day. At this time is it not worth it to downplay the risk until we get definitive trend. Folks in North Texas and Oklahoma should treat this accordingly to the guidance the NWS has put out lately.

Let the betting begin.

[TexasF6]

@PORTA: WHAT IN THE BLUE BLAZES IS WRONG WITH EWX FORECASTERS!!!!!!!!!?????

[Portastorm]

Wow, the WPC is giving a large part of central and southeast Texas high chances of freezing rain on Saturday. It seems like at least Winter Weather Advisories will need to be issued for these areas in a few days if these trends continue to hold.



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Yep ... Paul Kocin, highly regarded forecaster working the Winter Weather Prediction desk out of the NWS office in Washington, D.C., issued a new forecast and updated graphics. Clearly shows the threat increasing on Saturday for freezing precip for portions of east and south central Texas.

[Ellsey]

According to the NWS the sweet spot of the metroplex will be North western Dallas county, Northern Tarrant County, Northern Parker County, Wise county, Denton County, and Collin county..

They are calling for "significant ice" in these areas...

Guess it's good I went to the store earlier...I had to drag a 3 year old around, but I did it.

[TexasStorm]

According to the NWS the sweet spot of the metroplex will be North western Dallas county, Northern Tarrant County, Northern Parker County, Wise county, Denton County, and Collin county..

They are calling for "significant ice" in these areas...

Since I live just a smidge north of the Ellis County line you guys have fun up there in Northwest Dallas

[South Texas Storms]

What freezing rain chances was the WPC forecasting for central and southeast Texas this morning?
Did it increase quite a bit from their forecast this morning Porta?

[gboudx]

According to the NWS the sweet spot of the metroplex will be North western Dallas county, Northern Tarrant County, Northern Parker County, Wise county, Denton County, and Collin county..

They are calling for "significant ice" in these areas...

Whew, I'm in Rockwall county and just outside the sweet spot. Maybe we'll get some lake effect rain.

[richtrav]

Can you really call it a McFarland Signature? I don't see temps dropping that drastically in the Valley, at least freezing temps.

I think people are getting confused. It is a McFarland signature by every standard in the book at 5h. The misconception is the cold this weekend is a result of a full blast attack. It is not, it is a result of the EPO shoving cold air we saw build over the Yukon. The fact that it is growing more severe is the models ghastly underestimated it. A second powerful cold air mass will arrive next Monday. If north Texas gets into the low teens or single digits it will be because of the vast snow/ice fields over the southern plains underneath a new arctic high for optimum radiation.

The Polar Vortex will begin to pinwheel in central Canada after the 10th of the month with hints of renewed Aleutian ridging. If the EPO opens up we will continue to see stronger fronts plow their way down.

Somebody smarter help me out with the McFarland signature. I know he used it to describe the events leading up to the big freezes in 1951 and 1962 in South Texas, and I think to a lesser extent in '72 or '73. I know they happen every few years and most cause mostly nuisance freezes or just cold patterns. He specifically used it to distinguish a hard freezing event that was confined to Texas and the central US and did not push all the way east. How well did 1983 and 1989 fit into the McFarland pattern? They both affected the entire US east of the Rockies unlike '51 or '62.

[Portastorm]

What freezing rain chances was the WPC forecasting for central and southeast Texas this morning?
Did it increase quite a bit from their forecast this morning Porta?

From 30% to 80%.

[joshskeety]

NWS for Northern Parker county calling for .3 ice on Thursday and another .2 ice on Friday.. wow..

Thats puts us heavy as a 3.. Significant power outages..

Josh

[South Texas Storms]

What freezing rain chances was the WPC forecasting for central and southeast Texas this morning?
Did it increase quite a bit from their forecast this morning Porta?

From 30% to 80%.

Wow that's quite a bit of an increase there! I gotta admit that I was surprised at how bullish the WPC forecast is for locations that far south.

[Portastorm]

Well, Mr. Kocin has written textbooks about winter weather. If he's bullish on our chances then I'm all ears, you know?!

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

Well, Mr. Kocin has written textbooks about winter weather. If he's bullish on our chances then I'm all ears, you know?!

Yeah his forecast definitely caused me to raise an eyebrow.
I'm not doubting him at all. Tonight's 0z runs should be interesting.

[TheProfessor]

According to the NWS the sweet spot of the metroplex will be North western Dallas county, Northern Tarrant County, Northern Parker County, Wise county, Denton County, and Collin county..

They are calling for "significant ice" in these areas...

Man! I'm in the strike zone. I wonder if the system this weekend will cause even more problems added on to this one?

[Ntxw]

Somebody smarter help me out with the McFarland signature. I know he used it to describe the events leading up to the big freezes in 1951 and 1962 in South Texas, and I think to a lesser extent in '72 or '73. I know they happen every few years and most cause mostly nuisance freezes or just cold patterns. He specifically used it to distinguish a hard freezing event that was confined to Texas and the central US and did not push all the way east. How well did 1983 and 1989 fit into the McFarland pattern? They both affected the entire US east of the Rockies unlike '51 or '62.

Perhaps a pro met can chime in but based on what I have read and understood, McFarland really just depicts freezes into the RGV through a certain pattern. It is not black and white, the common theme is height rises (Alaskan ridge) that funnels air from Siberia to the US much like what we are seeing now. In his paper he mentions there are other freezes of similar nature that did not directly effect the RGV to the max extent but had a similar pattern evolution. A -PNA and slight SE ridge are the examples he gave of the 51 and 62 which is one of the results of such a pattern and favorable for the RGV. You can have different trough axis that funnels it to areas further east or west. But the common theme is the 500mb pattern consisting of strong NPAC ridging and PV in the area between the Davis straits and Hudson Bay.

83 and 89 were of that same 500mb pattern, but the evolution of the -EPO has different results.

[katheria]

well i can tell you my work is not taking this serious at all. I work for a large company and we have about 800 people in our building.

overheard the BIG exec's talking at lunch today and they were just laughing about the forecast. stating it wont happen it will be 80 tomorrow.
that they didnt plan to test the generators or go ahead and get the emergency plan setup for another location to take over just in case.

i just kept my mouth shut.................