Texas Winter 2013-2014

[South Texas Storms]

One of the local TV News stations in SA posted an image on their Facebook page from one of their in-house models predictions for freezing rain totals this weekend. It's showing ice accumulations up to .10 inch in northern Bexar county, and it looks like more than that in Travis country (the image cuts off). Here is the link to the image:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151805669836479&set=a.380676561478.171475.241786396478&type=1&theater

[gboudx]

Initial front just passed our house. Temp dropped 5 degrees instantly.

[Portastorm]

One of the local TV News stations in SA posted an image on their Facebook page from one of their in-house models predictions for freezing rain totals this weekend. It's showing ice accumulations up to .10 inch in northern Bexar county, and it looks like more than that in Travis country (the image cuts off). Here is the link to the image:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151805669836479&set=a.380676561478.171475.241786396478&type=1&theater

Sheesh ... I just went to that link. That forecast is a little unnerving!

[Ntxw]

Initial front just passed our house. Temp dropped 5 degrees instantly.

All down hill from here, you'll be falling straight through Friday maybe even Saturday morning.

[katheria]

One of the local TV News stations in SA posted an image on their Facebook page from one of their in-house models predictions for freezing rain totals this weekend. It's showing ice accumulations up to .10 inch in northern Bexar county, and it looks like more than that in Travis country (the image cuts off). Here is the link to the image:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151805669836479&set=a.380676561478.171475.241786396478&type=1&theater

Sheesh ... I just went to that link. That forecast is a little unnerving!

Portastorm, jump in your car/truck and you can come and stay with us and experience the ice storm lol

[Ntxw]

There's the Children's Christmas parade in Dallas on Saturday. With highs in the 20s and ice around I wonder what it will be like on TV if it goes on.

[ndale]

One of the local TV News stations in SA posted an image on their Facebook page from one of their in-house models predictions for freezing rain totals this weekend. It's showing ice accumulations up to .10 inch in northern Bexar county, and it looks like more than that in Travis country (the image cuts off). Here is the link to the image:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151805669836479&set=a.380676561478.171475.241786396478&type=1&theater

I wonder what kind of data their forecast is based on.

[Portastorm]

Haaaa!

Thanks for the offer but ... um ... no! I hate ice storms. Really do. My experience with them here in Austin involves loss of power, loss of heat, loss of fun, etc. I'd much rather have sleet and/or snow with my winter temps.

Be safe up there.

[gboudx]

There's the Children's Christmas parade in Dallas on Saturday. With highs in the 20s and ice around I wonder what it will be like on TV if it goes on.

As of now, it's still on. Some other events, like the TAPPS Championship game, are postponed until next week or later.

[Ntxw]

There's the Children's Christmas parade in Dallas on Saturday. With highs in the 20s and ice around I wonder what it will be like on TV if it goes on.

As of now, it's still on. Some other events, like the TAPPS Championship game, are postponed until next week or later.

Yeah I heard the Dallas Marathon was still on too for Sunday. That's the potential day for round 2, probably Sat eve/Sun morning.

[jerryh421]

Wow, the WPC is giving a large part of central and southeast Texas high chances of freezing rain on Saturday. It seems like at least Winter Weather Advisories will need to be issued for these areas in a few days if these trends continue to hold.



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Where can I find this at??

[South Texas Storms]

They provide snow probability forecasts as well as the freezing rain probabilities on this page:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

[katheria]

:uarrow:

Haaaa!

Thanks for the offer but ... um ... no! I hate ice storms. Really do. My experience with them here in Austin involves loss of power, loss of heat, loss of fun, etc. I'd much rather have sleet and/or snow with my winter temps.

Be safe up there.

yeah id take anything but ICE

already got my plan set. . power goes out ill just walk to the driveway and live in the RV popup thats parked in the driveway...propane cookstove/heater/oven/fridge
and generator

always knew it would come in handy someday for something other than camping

[gboudx]

Most recent FB post from Steve McCauley:

We are ALMOST within 24 hours of the start of the frozen precipitation here in the DFW area. The freezing rain and sleet should begin in the immediate DFW area a little after midnight tomorow (Thursday) night, sooner to the northwest. Therefore, we will finally get a decent handle on just how much ice we can expect when the next round of computer model data come in after midnight tonight.

It is clear that there will be a glaze of ice on just about everything come Firday morning, but I still don't know just how thick that glaze will be.

To reach WINTER STORM WARNING criteria, there must be at least 0.25" of ice accumulation. In the ICE STORM WARNING area to our northeast, up to half an inch of ice is expected to accumulate on exposed objects. That could bring down trees and powerlines.

What makes the forecast a little tricky in our area is that we get both freezing rain AND sleet. So we have to figure out how much TOTAL frozen precip we will get and then divide that up between the two players, sleet and freezing rain. The math is horrendous to say the least Although neither scenario is good, if we can make the changeover to sleet QUICKLY, that would mean a little less chance of of power outages. But I just don't know at this stage of the event.

But again, once we get within 24 hours of the start of the frozen precip, the math gets a little easier, and we will know if this will just be a traffic mess or much worse.

[Ntxw]

Maybe we will get a little deeper cold air. McCauley is right it will be better and mostly bad roads but not as damaging to power. That's the hope.

Both or either is going to be bad on the roadways period. With the lows getting to about 17-20F there is just no getting around that come Saturday morning. Typically once you get to about 28 or lower the streets start accumulating ice.

[Rgv20]

Every now and then the GFS just loves to tease me! lol

[South Texas Storms]

lol I mentioned that in my post about the 18z GFS a few pages back!

[katheria]

"Steve McCauley
I need to go do some homework, but I wanted to pass along this last bit of information just for the sake of completeness. All computer models agree that we will see significant sleet and freezing rain in the Metroplex beginning late Thursday night into Friday morning. That is ... all but one model.

One model is going against all others (including the Stat Method) and is calling for ALL RAIN - ZERO ICE - in the Metroplex because it does not think temperatures will fall below freezing until AFTER the rain stops.

Which model is it? Yep, the high-resolution Texas Tech Model! "

Lucy again??????????????

[BigB0882]

Every now and then the GFS just loves to tease me! lol

What is that from? That shows frozen rain for us in SELA and I didn't think our temps were going to get close to freezing. It is for Dec 10, which would be the next dose of cold air? I doubt it happens but interesting to see. I figured because of the ridge we would stay quite warmer than you guys in TX.

[gboudx]

The Red Raider model also forecasted all rain during the last event for the entire DFW area. It was partially correct, as some areas did see freezing rain and sleet.

What is that from? That shows frozen rain for us in SELA and I didn't think our temps were going to get close to freezing. It is for Dec 10, which would be the next dose of cold air? I doubt it happens but interesting to see. I figured because of the ridge we would stay quite warmer than you guys in TX.

Looks like its a GFS run from WeatherBell.