New Ecmwf And some added thoughts

[Stormchaser16]

To the untrained eye tonights EC *may* appear as a fish storm, but take a closer look and you will the worst natural disaster in centuries in the making for Norfolk. The EC develops a weakness in the west atlantic ridge allowing Issy to turn northwestward around 70 degrees.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

But.....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

It explodes the high back into New England on day 7, thus preventing any more of a northern motion, therefore pushing it back to the west, one could only imagine the pressure gradient and the winds that would ensue, its shown at cat 3-4 strength however the pressure gradient could amplify any wind situation. This is a pretty scary situation. I am thinking that Issy will begin to lift more WNW with the coming days as Henri begins to influence its path a bit. BUT with the models developing the ridge back in New England its seeming like they dont wanna let Isabel go away. The eat coast is not out of the woods by any means at all yet!

[Rainband]

One run doesn't show a trend!!

[Josephine96]

I think this would be the biggest natural disaster ever for Florida, before it is for Norfolk...

[Stormchaser16]

EC doesnt show anything of a Florida hit.

[Stormsfury]

The Day 8 EURO absolutely crushes ORF (Norfolk) and get this ... that's a HUGE RIDGE in Eastern Canada (over 1032mb). Stormchaser16 is absolutely reading the EURO description as I would have read it.

Look at the 3 day average - Day 10 mean

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EDIT: Though I'm totally not sold on today's model outputs.. even the EURO's idea tonight with such a dramatic shift. Inclinations of a negatively tilted trough clear down to Savannah, GA at this time of year looks suspect though earlier in the period.

SF

[Josephine96]

It will hit Florida before it hits VA if it even goes up that far.

This thing has Florida written all over it.. {gives look of worry}...

I wonder if Isabel likes sunshine.. Maybe we won't give her any before she comes calling if she does lol

[Rainband]

The Day 8 EURO absolutely crushes ORF (Norfolk) and get this ... that's a HUGE RIDGE in Eastern Canada (over 1032mb). Stormchaser16 is absolutely reading the EURO description as I would have read it.

Look at the 3 day average - Day 10 mean

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

You as an expert knows "models" aren't accurate after one run!!! Trends trends!!

[Stormsfury]

The Day 8 EURO absolutely crushes ORF (Norfolk) and get this ... that's a HUGE RIDGE in Eastern Canada (over 1032mb). Stormchaser16 is absolutely reading the EURO description as I would have read it.

Look at the 3 day average - Day 10 mean

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

You as an expert knows "models" aren't accurate after one run!!! Trends trends!!

See my edited post above for the full scoop. I'm not sold on today's model runs.

SF

[Rainband]

The Day 8 EURO absolutely crushes ORF (Norfolk) and get this ... that's a HUGE RIDGE in Eastern Canada (over 1032mb). Stormchaser16 is absolutely reading the EURO description as I would have read it.

Look at the 3 day average - Day 10 mean

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

You as an expert knows "models" aren't accurate after one run!!! Trends trends!!

See my edited post above for the full scoop. I'm not sold on today's model runs.

SF

Ok!! Thanks

[MWatkins]

To the untrained eye tonights EC *may* appear as a fish storm, but take a closer look and you will the worst natural disaster in centuries in the making for Norfolk. The EC develops a weakness in the west atlantic ridge allowing Issy to turn northwestward around 70 degrees.

Just kind of shoots north after Monday...this happened in the model on Monday I think...pointed right at New York if I member right...

MW

[Rainband]

New York then Norfolk...seems to be trending south?????

[wxman57]

It will hit Florida before it hits VA if it even goes up that far.

This thing has Florida written all over it.. {gives look of worry}...

I wonder if Isabel likes sunshine.. Maybe we won't give her any before she comes calling if she does lol

I'm beginning to think Florida may escape this one, Josephine. I'm tending to agree with an ECMWF solution with the main threat from North Carolina to Long Island or possibly just out to sea.

[Lindaloo]

One run doesn't show a trend!!

You took my line. lol. But I agree 100%. There is no trend on one run.