Ntxw wrote:Wow it's cold! That wind makes it so much worse.
Anyway 850mb 0c is actually advancing a lot more than I thought. I wonder If the cold air is going to be deeper and puts out more sleet the models depicted, I certainly hope so! And also the freeze line is going much further south than we probably expected it's at the doorstep of northern-central Texas...impetus for Austin?
It might get dicey if you have to leave work later than 6pm
Good Morning Ntxw and everyone.
I was checking the model forecast soundings from yesterday afternoon (GFS) and yesterday evening (NAM) with the 12z FWD sounding. The FWD sounding and the model soundings do generally match up, but the FWD sounding is a little colder 10C is the warmest temperature of the "warm tongue" compared to around 13C to 14C on the model soundings. I do think that along with advancing deeper cold air coming from the north and slightly cooler atmospheric column, we could see a quicker transition to sleet. The precipitation will still start out as freezing rain, but I could see a sleet transition by early morning Friday. GFS 06z kept us in the bulls-eye for heavy precipitation, but the 06z NAM is less bullish.