ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

Come on, let's see if Nestor finally forms after 90L has been around for quite some time now!

What makes you think it will form into a tropical cyclone? It doesn't appear to me to have enough convection to make it.

[hurricanes1234]

Come on, let's see if Nestor finally forms after 90L has been around for quite some time now!

What makes you think it will form into a tropical cyclone? It doesn't appear to me to have enough convection to make it.

I think it might just squeeze in a brief TS or subtropical storm because of its rotation. However after diurnal maximum tomorrow, it may not have enough convective support to do much before conditions go hostile. Right now, it strongly reminds me of Melissa on her first night when she struggled with convection, but had a decent circulation. But this is just my personal opinion.

[hurricanes1234]

Diurnal maximum helped it a little bit, but I cannot tell since there isn't any update as yet on the system. I suppose it is still not a tropical storm.

[Hammy]

I'm a bit surprised now that it isn't being upgraded.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/flash-rgb-short.html

[Hurricane Jed]

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It has a decent structure. I'd lean more towards subtropical than tropical.

[supercane4867]

12Z OPC surface analysis shows it had lost frontal characteristics

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/eatl_sfcbw.gif

[hurricanes1234]

Well its winds have weakened to 45 knots, which makes me think this is now less likely to develop.

AL, 90, 2013120512, , BEST, 0, 335N, 278W, 45, 998, LO

[Hammy]

Well its winds have weakened to 45 knots, which makes me think this is now less likely to develop.

AL, 90, 2013120512, , BEST, 0, 335N, 278W, 45, 998, LO

many transitioning systems weaken slightly as they transition, as they cease to draw their energy from baroclinic sources.

[cycloneye]

30%/30%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE AZORES. THIS LOW IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

It's running out of time.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks decent enough for classification to me. Shallow warm core with no fronts attached and shallow convection near and over the center. But what do I know.

[hurricanes1234]

I'd suspect that if this was a subtropical or tropical storm at all, it was probably at that status earlier today or yesterday, but since then, the winds have weakened from 50 knots to 40 knots, the structure, in my opinion, has deteriorated, and the pressure has risen from 995 mbar to 999 mbar.

AL, 90, 2013120518, , BEST, 0, 337N, 277W, 40, 999, LO

[stormkite]

Models are in consensus supporting this system to intensify.

[Hammy]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL902013&starting_image=2013AL90_4KMIRIMG_201312052345.GIF

convection, albeit somewhat shallow, is continuing to at very least maintain itself around the system, and has a full half now with decent coverage of consistent convection as well as a tiny intermittent CDO.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%/20%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRIMARLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF
THE AZORES. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 7 AM EST ON SATURDAY
DECEMBER 7...OR SOONER...IF NECESSARY.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[weathernerdguy]

it was so robust yesterday

[hurricanes1234]

it was so robust yesterday

Went from robust to a bust.

[SFLcane]

it was so robust yesterday

Went from robust to a bust.

Sounds like this season.. :0(

[hurricanes1234]

it was so robust yesterday

Went from robust to a bust.

Sounds like this season.. :0(

Yes, indeed, keeping in line with 2013.

[cycloneye]

Bye to 90L.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AZORES HAS
DIMINISHED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.