Texas Winter 2013-2014

[downsouthman1]

Anyone paying attention to Saturday's storm?? could be just as strong

Everyone's downplaying it. What are you looking at?

[TexasStorm]

Anyone paying attention to Saturday's storm?? could be just as strong

Everyone's downplaying it. What are you looking at?

BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE...SO
PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM

[joshskeety]

Just drove from Richardson (N.Dallas) to Springtown in Parker county.. Started half way on my journey.. Temp went from 34 to 29 in a matter of seconds.. Ice all over my windshield, wipers froze up leaving me having to stop twice to clean them off and get an ice scraper even though I had my defrost on full blast..

Roads were still good.. Not even bridges icy yet, although I think just in time as the cold sleet that is falling now will have no problem bringing ground temps towards freezing especially as the sun goes down.

This batch of precip was kind of a surprise as the main batch hasn't even gotten rolling yet.. I expect the heaviest portion to be from 4 in the morning to noon tomorrow morning and as I suspected Saturday's storm is looking more organized as well..

Temp here is now 28 dewpoint still 20, temps have much more room to drop.. Lows tonight most likely low 20's and heavy sleet/Freezing rain.. I suspect any in the metroplex that need to get somewhere, better get somewhere now and be prepared to stay there until Sunday Afternoon at a minimum..

[downsouthman1]

Anyone paying attention to Saturday's storm?? could be just as strong

Everyone's downplaying it. What are you looking at?

18Z GFS initializing. Looks like it's not shafting CTX, NTX, or ETX.

[weatherdude1108]

Ewx discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE EARLY STAGES OF THESE SOUTH CENTRAL TX WINTER WEATHER EVENTS
CAN BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WHEN THE EXPECTED OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED. RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS DEPICT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BEHAVIOR MORE REFLECTIVE OF
THE DRIER NAM OR ECMWF QPF FORECAST...AND THIS IS THE MAIN REASON
TO HOLD OFF ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...THE DELAY OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS ALLOWED FOR A BROADER AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO COOL DOWN TO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDER IMPACT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT WITH NIGHTFALL AND THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO THE DRY
AIR MASS...THUS WILL INCREASE THE SPEED OF COOLING THIS EVENING
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FORWARD IN TIME TO 8 PM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER AREAS OF THE NW HILL COUNTRY.

BY DAYBREAK...THE FREEZING TEMPERATURE LINE COULD SAG SOUTH TO A
ROCKSPRINGS TO BOERNE TO LOCKHART TO GIDDINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HIGHER RAINFALL RATES HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO
OVERWHELM THE SURFACE INVERSION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF AUSTIN
METRO...BUT THE DRIER INITIAL CONDITIONS COULD ENABLE A FEW
POCKETS OF 32 DEGREE WEATHER AND EFFICIENT ICING FROM THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES.

AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS
LINE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TONIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER
STORM WARNING UPGRADE...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS OF
MODERATE SLEET SHOWERS WOULD BE NEEDED TO ENHANCE THE ICING
POTENTIAL TO CREATE THIS KIND OF IMPACT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICK FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...BUT THE COLD AIR AT DAYBREAK AND COOLER TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE DAY MAY MAKE ICING CONCERNS LAST BEYOND
NOON. SUBSIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOWERING
TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A MORNING FREEZE EXPECTED
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING COULD WIND UP RESULTING IN A
HIGHER CONCERN FOR ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. THE
AREAS OF CONCERN WOULD LIKELY FALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL AGAIN SHOWING
HIGHER POTENTIAL THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL LEAVE SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING
DEPTH OF THE COLD AND DRY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
ICING POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...COLD DAYS REMAIN MONDAY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A
DEEPER LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW. WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

[Ntxwx]

Anyone paying attention to Saturday's storm?? could be just as strong

Everyone's downplaying it. What are you looking at?

ok maybe not just as strong .. qpf isn't too high, but i was concerned because we'll still be well below freezing saturday with highs in the low-mid 20's and lows in the teens. But this decent amount of precip will be in addition to whats falling now/tonight.

[Portastorm]

Way to go, weatherdude ... you beat me to it!

Gotta give credit when I think it is due. EWX did a nice job on their forecast discussion. I agree entirely with their thoughts and they have enough cautionary language in their AFD to give them room to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if and when it is needed. They also have thrown out yesterday's silly idea that early next week would be moderating and warmer and dry. Models clearly show otherwise now.

[Ntxwx]

and as I suspected Saturday's storm is looking more organized as well..

Agreed. Just something to keep an eye on

[Tireman4]

54 at Hobby and still dropping ( 50 according to Weatherunderground). My run will be fantastic. I am off for my 7 miler.

[Ntxwx]

NWS FTW Hazardous weather outlook posted at 3:44 pm : THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

[Annie Oakley]

Way to go, weatherdude ... you beat me to it!

Gotta give credit when I think it is due. EWX did a nice job on their forecast discussion. I agree entirely with their thoughts and they have enough cautionary language in their AFD to give them room to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if and when it is needed. They also have thrown out yesterday's silly idea that early next week would be moderating and warmer and dry. Models clearly show otherwise now.

So next week's forecast is what?

[downsouthman1]

Way to go, weatherdude ... you beat me to it!

Gotta give credit when I think it is due. EWX did a nice job on their forecast discussion. I agree entirely with their thoughts and they have enough cautionary language in their AFD to give them room to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if and when it is needed. They also have thrown out yesterday's silly idea that early next week would be moderating and warmer and dry. Models clearly show otherwise now.

It was a good discussion. Lately, the FTW discussions have been leaving something to desire. But since I'm in Bell county & it's on the border of EWX, I usually read their AFDs also, just to ensure I'm covered. Bell gets forgotten sometimes & it's not alone.

[Portastorm]

Way to go, weatherdude ... you beat me to it!

Gotta give credit when I think it is due. EWX did a nice job on their forecast discussion. I agree entirely with their thoughts and they have enough cautionary language in their AFD to give them room to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if and when it is needed. They also have thrown out yesterday's silly idea that early next week would be moderating and warmer and dry. Models clearly show otherwise now.

So next week's forecast is what?

Here it is:

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
349 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

TXZ192-061100-
TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN
349 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 PM CST FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...LIGHT SLEET LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL READINGS 20 TO 25.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH. WIND CHILL READINGS 15 TO 20.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SLEET. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER
20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE MORNING. NOT AS COLD. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

[joshskeety]

Plus the NWS has put northern Parker County right in the bullseye saying expect major travel problems. I suspect we will be put under ice warnings and emergency warnings soon.. All sleet right now, but as the dynamics of the main part of the storm, it will be freezing rain..

I live out in the boonies of North Parker County right close to the Wise County line.. I have a well, but electrical well.. Some things that need to be done if you live in the bullseye areas such as Parker County, Wise County, Denton County, Jack County, Collin County and northern Tarrant County..

Fill your bathtub with water if you live off a well.. That will be so you can have toilet water.. Fill buckets..

Put a heater out in your well house to keep pipes from freezing..

Hope you did like me and spent all summer/spring chopping wood.. Or bought lots of wood.. Without power you are going to wish you did..

Propane to use the grill, but PLEASE make sure you do this outside and not in your house.. Its cold outside yes.. But who cares, you will get food in your belly..

Keep fridge doors shut.. Food will stay cold for 24 hours.. Keep freezer door shut, food will stay frozen for 48 hours..

Finally, people lived in this type of weather without electricity for hundreds of years.. Dont panic, use your head, and stay warm..

Make a fire in your fireplace and use it to cook something on, make it fun..

Anyhow, here is to the electricity staying on, but if not, just remember to use the steps above and you will be fine.. Sip on a fine whiskey, or drink a Shiner and enjoy the day off tomorrow.. ANd if the power does go out, remember to use the steps above and things will be fine..

[CaptinCrunch]

Plus the NWS has put northern Parker County right in the bullseye saying expect major travel problems. I suspect we will be put under ice warnings and emergency warnings soon.. All sleet right now, but as the dynamics of the main part of the storm, it will be freezing rain..

I live out in the boonies of North Parker County right close to the Wise County line.. I have a well, but electrical well.. Some things that need to be done if you live in the bullseye areas such as Parker County, Wise County, Denton County, Jack County, Collin County and northern Tarrant County..

Fill your bathtub with water if you live off a well.. That will be so you can have toilet water.. Fill buckets..

Put a heater out in your well house to keep pipes from freezing..

Hope you did like me and spent all summer/spring chopping wood.. Or bought lots of wood.. Without power you are going to wish you did..

Propane to use the grill, but PLEASE make sure you do this outside and not in your house.. Its cold outside yes.. But who cares, you will get food in your belly..

Keep fridge doors shut.. Food will stay cold for 24 hours.. Keep freezer door shut, food will stay frozen for 48 hours..

Finally, people lived in this type of weather without electricity for hundreds of years.. Dont panic, use your head, and stay warm..

Make a fire in your fireplace and use it to cook something on, make it fun..

Anyhow, here is to the electricity staying on, but if not, just remember to use the steps above and you will be fine.. Sip on a fine whiskey, or drink a Shiner and enjoy the day off tomorrow.. ANd if the power does go out, remember to use the steps above and things will be fine..

That's a floating Bullseye so really anyone living in any of those counties should be prepared!!

[TheProfessor]

Icing here in roanoke area. Roads are developing ice where cars aren't driving over

[joshskeety]

FYI, just looked outside.. Sleet is starting to stick on the cement outside which is an indication that ground temps are about to give up the fight..

[joshskeety]

Btw.. Springtown 27.0 Degrees Slowly dropping, was 28.4 when first got home 40 minutes ago..

[Kludge]

31 deg in McKinney with light freezing rain mixed with sleet. My Webber has a coating of ice on it.

Don't feel bad... happens to me all the time when I forget to check my fly.

[weatherdude1108]

Way to go, weatherdude ... you beat me to it!

Gotta give credit when I think it is due. EWX did a nice job on their forecast discussion. I agree entirely with their thoughts and they have enough cautionary language in their AFD to give them room to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if and when it is needed. They also have thrown out yesterday's silly idea that early next week would be moderating and warmer and dry. Models clearly show otherwise now.

Thanks Porta!