Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Looking at the soundings across southern and central Oklahoma, the moisture is much greater through 600-450mb. Also, it looks like the twisterdata QPF is slightly greater across Oklahoma as well.

I'm not seeing it there either, at least at 500mb. The air is drier across OK and southwest of the Big Bend area of TX on the 18Z run than the 12Z. More moisture over western Kansas, though. All indications are that the next impulse will pass north of Texas and will have very little impact here. Certainly nothing remotely close to what happened in NE TX today.

12Z NAM 500MB RH:


18 NAM 500mb RH:

[Portastorm]

Well, EWX seems to have some concerns for this weekend for *some* reason. Even light amounts with subfreezing temps can cause issues ... heck, look at what happened this morning in the far northwest 'burbs of AUS.

At the risk of sounding like a nag, I'm not about to dismiss precip chances for my area of the state this weekend. Been burned too often in years past when these "surprise" shortwaves spin up moisture and trouble. Some of these models may prove right and, if so, fine. But I'll be skeptical about it. And it appears I'm not the only one.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
236 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
236 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...

THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
PRODUCING WEAK LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA OF CONCERN
FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET.
THE WINTRY MIX WILL END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ON ELEVATED
AND EXPOSED STRUCTURES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[wxman57]

You misunderstand me. I'm not saying no precip with the disturbance, but probably less than 0.1". Previous model runs had indicated a good bit more precip on Saturday. But even a light freezing drizzle can cause problems on bridges if temps are below freezing. No issue with trees or power lines though. That's just what the NWS office is saying - a chance of light precip with sub-freezing temps causing some roadway icing, particularly on bridges. And I agree completely with their statement. Nothing like today's weather up in the Dallas are.

[South Texas Storms]

You beat me to it Porta! Yeah I'm not seeing much of a threat for us this weekend but we'll see.

[Portastorm]

You misunderstand me. I'm not saying no precip with the disturbance, but probably less than 0.1". Previous model runs had indicated a good bit more precip on Saturday. But even a light freezing drizzle can cause problems on bridges if temps are below freezing. No issue with trees or power lines though. That's just what the NWS office is saying - a chance of light precip with sub-freezing temps causing some roadway icing, particularly on bridges. And I agree completely with their statement. Nothing like today's weather up in the Dallas are.

Completely agree, actually. And I should clarify as well. I foresee nothing even remotely close happening here in south central Texas this weekend compared to what North Texas is going through. I'm thinking light amounts here too -- worst case -- but perhaps issues a little more significant for us in the Austin area because I think temps will be colder this weekend and whatever does fall will create trouble.

Then again, it's hard to argue against the drying trend of the models. While each has its deficiencies and biases ... some things cannot be ignored.

[downsouthman1]

Any HiRes models have that within their time scope yet or what do other models say about tomorrow night's disturbance?

[orangeblood]

I think it needs to be noted that the GFS is currently "The King" so far this winter as it has pegged these past two events extremely well. Seems like it is performing much better over the past year, is it the pattern or tweaks to the physics of the model itself ? Been very impressed with its handling of the temperature profiles and shortwave evolutions within the upper level flow

[Portastorm]

Here's the latest thinking from EWX in its just issued afternoon forecast discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SURGE OF COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE DRIER
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 30 SOUTHERN
TIER. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT.
SAN ANTONIO AND DEL RIO METROS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF
THE SEASON TONIGHT. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY. CLOUDY
WITH HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHERN HILLS TO NEAR
40 SOUTHWEST RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE COLD SURGE INTO THE COASTAL
REGIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CYCLOGENESIS (A
LOW DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE) AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
TRACK NORTHEAST. THIS WILL IN TURN ENHANCE GULF MOISTURE OVERRUN
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TOMORROW INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NEW DATA
WILL MORE CLEARLY DEFINE THE THREAT...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS DRIER WESTERLIES MIX DOWN SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR
MIXES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURGE OF COLD
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. DECREASING
CLOUDS BUT CONTINUED COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 20 HILLS TO
LOW 30S SOUTH. CONTINUED COOL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO THE LOW 40S. BY
THURSDAY...AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION. INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT FRIDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 23 30 24 50 34 / 10 10 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 25 31 23 49 34 / 10 10 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 24 33 26 51 36 / 10 10 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 19 26 19 50 31 / 10 10 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 28 40 26 53 36 / 10 10 0 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 22 29 21 48 31 / 10 10 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 29 37 24 54 37 / 10 10 0 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 24 33 25 50 36 / 10 10 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 27 33 28 48 38 / 10 20 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 26 35 26 53 37 / 10 10 20 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 28 36 26 53 38 / 10 10 20 10 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 since we have you here, what does your long range co-worker think about the pattern so far and what are some of his opinions about the rest of this month if he has one?

[aggiecutter]

I think it needs to be noted that the GFS is currently "The King" so far this winter as it has pegged these past two events extremely well. Seems like it is performing much better over the past year, is it the pattern or tweaks to the physics of the model itself ? Been very impressed with its handling of the temperature profiles and shortwave evolutions within the upper level flow

The GFS model has been tweaked over the past year. I posted the article on this forum when it was announced.

Here's is the link to the article. The government appropriated more than 23 million dollars for the improvement of the supercomputers that do the calculations for the GFS. Part of it has already been implemented. The rest of the project will be done incrementally til 2015. You can thank Hurricane Sandy for the improvements.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... rediction/

[Snowman67]

Can some of you N. Texas folks help me out here. I have a buddy who is consider driving from Hot Springs Arkansas to Waco for the BU-UT game tomorrow if the roads aren't too bad. He wants to know what the driving conditions would be from Texarkana to Waco (He would be taking I-30 to Dallas and then down 35 to Waco. Any insight that you can provide would be helpful. Thanks!

[wxman57]

Wxman57 since we have you here, what does your long range co-worker think about the pattern so far and what are some of his opinions about the rest of this month if he has one?

He's telling me to move to the Equator...

[cycloneye]

Here are the latest Sleet/Freezing Rain totals by HPC:

Code: Select all

SELECTED STORM TOTAL SLEET AMOUNTS IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT
HAS ENDED...

...TEXAS...
LITTLE ELM                            3.50                   
HURST                                 2.50                   
LINDSAY                               2.50                   
DECATUR 3 SSW                         2.25                   
DENISON                               2.00                   
EDEN                                  2.00                   
KELLER 2 E                            2.00                   
BLUFF DALE                            1.75                   
FORT WORTH                            1.50                   
GAINESVILLE                           1.50                   
OAK TRAIL SHORES                      1.50                   
DALLAS 5 E                            1.00                   

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT
HAS ENDED...

...TEXAS...
FORT WORTH 2 S                        0.40                   
DALLAS 5 NE                           0.30                   
MESQUITE                              0.30                   
RICHARDSON                            0.30                   
MENARD                                0.25                   
BRADY                                 0.20                   
DECATUR 3 SSW                         0.20                   
ROUND ROCK                            0.10

[aggiecutter]

Can some of you N. Texas folks help me out here. I have a buddy who is consider driving from Hot Springs Arkansas to Waco for the BU-UT game tomorrow if the roads aren't too bad. He wants to know what the driving conditions would be from Texarkana to Waco (He would be taking I-30 to Dallas and then down 35 to Waco. Any insight that you can provide would be helpful. Thanks!

There are no road issues in the Texarkana area, or surrounding vicinity.

[gboudx]

Can some of you N. Texas folks help me out here. I have a buddy who is consider driving from Hot Springs Arkansas to Waco for the BU-UT game tomorrow if the roads aren't too bad. He wants to know what the driving conditions would be from Texarkana to Waco (He would be taking I-30 to Dallas and then down 35 to Waco. Any insight that you can provide would be helpful. Thanks!

There are no road issues in the Texarkana area, or surrounding vicinity.

DFW is probably clearing up, with the exception of bridges and overpasses. He can check the road conditions here:

http://www.drivetexas.org/Full/

When I clicked on the Area Forecast I had to make sure I didn't click on Minot, ND. Here's Saturday for my area:

Saturday A chance of freezing drizzle after noon. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 23. Wind chill values between 3 and 13. North northeast wind around 10 mph.

[Ntxw]

Can some of you N. Texas folks help me out here. I have a buddy who is consider driving from Hot Springs Arkansas to Waco for the BU-UT game tomorrow if the roads aren't too bad. He wants to know what the driving conditions would be from Texarkana to Waco (He would be taking I-30 to Dallas and then down 35 to Waco. Any insight that you can provide would be helpful. Thanks!

Are they not already bad where he is?

If he must go he's probably ok to Texarkana like aggiecutter said then continue till about Sulphur Springs and hop on Texas 19 till Athens. Then just take 31 right on to Waco, it goes around The metroplex and probably gets him there faster anyway.

Once the sun goes down, the melted stuff on the main roads will become black ice with the slush, teens will do that.

[Snowman67]

Can some of you N. Texas folks help me out here. I have a buddy who is consider driving from Hot Springs Arkansas to Waco for the BU-UT game tomorrow if the roads aren't too bad. He wants to know what the driving conditions would be from Texarkana to Waco (He would be taking I-30 to Dallas and then down 35 to Waco. Any insight that you can provide would be helpful. Thanks!

Are they not already bad where he is?

If he must go he's probably ok to Texarkana like aggiecutter said then continue till about Sulphur Springs and hop on Texas 19 till Athens. Then just take 31 right on to Waco, it goes around The metroplex and probably gets him there faster anyway.

Once the sun goes down, the melted stuff on the main roads will become black ice with the slush, teens will do that.

He said the roads are not too bad because they got much more sleet than the forecasted freezing rain. Thanks to all for providing the information.

He is just outside of Hot Springs Village

[Portastorm]

Off topic but if he's a Longhorn fan, I would recommend he stay home. There's nothing more miserable than driving a long distance and sitting in a cold, windy stadium watching your favorite college football team get stomped by the opponent. And I'm afraid my Longhorns are gonna get stomped. I'm still cold when I think about my experience at the Cotton Bowl on January 1, 1991.

[SouthernMet]

Hard freeze warning issued for northern & western sides of dfw, possible single digits.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow:

Off topic but if he's a Longhorn fan, I would recommend he stay home. There's nothing more miserable than driving a long distance and sitting in a cold, windy stadium watching your favorite college football team get stomped by the opponent. And I'm afraid my Longhorns are gonna get stomped. I'm still cold when I think about my experience at the Cotton Bowl on January 1, 1991.

Hey, I like the Longhorns chances if the game becomes a battle of the trenches because of the cold weather and possible precipitation.