Good evening everyone!! Hurricane Isabel remains a very dangerous category 5 hurricane as of 11 PM EDT.
At 11 PM EDT, the center of category 5 hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.6 north, longitude 56.1 west or about 455 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving towards the west at near 9 mph and a track north of just due west is anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph with higher gusts. The inner core of the hurricane is currently undergoing some reorganization and the potential exists of an eyewall replacement cycle with Isabel during the overnight. Thus a slight weakening is possible overnight tonight. Fluctuations like this are common in major hurricanes. The cool wake left by Fabian may also not be an issue. So any weakening will be slow if any with Isabel for the next several days. Even if a slight weakening occurs, It can easily come right back. So we don't want to let our guard down just because we're talking about slight weakening. This is only a temporary thing since Isabel could easily come right back after the upcoming potential eyewall replacement cycle/organization of the inner core. A hurricane hunter plane will be out investigating this hurricane tomorrow.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. Minimum central pressure estimated by satellite is 924 millibars or 27.29 inches. Hurricane hunters will get a actual pressure reading tomorrow during the first tentative recon flight scheduled for Friday afternoon.
Large ocean swells are likely to impact particularly the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the upcoming weekend. The forecast is fairly certain through five days of a west and westnorthwest track to a position near to or over the eastern Bahamas by sometime on Tuesday. Beyond that is when it gets complicating and forecasts 5-7 days out are quite uncertain. However residents along the east coast, especially from Florida northward into Virginia should review their hurricane preparation and stay tuned as further details are given on the future track of Isabel.
The earlier we prepare, the better whether this hits the United States or not!!
More updates later.
Jim
Isabel late night discussion, forecast, and observations....
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