2014 EPAC Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
2014 EPAC Season
I understand that this might be a bit early, but how is the 2014 EPAC season looking like it's going to pan out? Below-average like this year? Moderately active like 2011 and 2012? Above-average like 2009?
If it is too early, then this thread could probably be kept until it becomes useful next year.
If it is too early, then this thread could probably be kept until it becomes useful next year.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
I'm 100% sure there will be at least one major hurricane next year, perhaps a Cat 4
2013 is an anomaly that we probably won't see a year like this again in decade
2013 is an anomaly that we probably won't see a year like this again in decade
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
I wasn't surprised by the low activity in EPAC this year given the dry air in the area and ENSO bordering on cool neutral to weak LN... but I was baffled by the ATL hurricane season underperforming alongside EPAC....we might as well start a thread for the 2014 ATL hurricane season.
If there is a chance of at least a weak EN or warm neutral next year then we may have something to look forward in E. Pacific...
If there is a chance of at least a weak EN or warm neutral next year then we may have something to look forward in E. Pacific...
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
dexterlabio wrote:I wasn't surprised by the low activity in EPAC this year given the dry air in the area and ENSO bordering on cool neutral to weak LN... but I was baffled by the ATL hurricane season underperforming alongside EPAC....we might as well start a thread for the 2014 ATL hurricane season.
If there is a chance of at least a weak EN or warm neutral next year then we may have something to look forward in E. Pacific...
Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.
I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.
0 likes
- Hurricane_Luis
- Category 2
- Posts: 723
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
- Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re:
Hurricane_Luis wrote:We haven't finished 2013 yet. But I Think that 2014 will be much the same as this year
I am not disagreeing with you, but if possible, could you please elaborate on why you think so? I'd love to know.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:dexterlabio wrote:I wasn't surprised by the low activity in EPAC this year given the dry air in the area and ENSO bordering on cool neutral to weak LN... but I was baffled by the ATL hurricane season underperforming alongside EPAC....we might as well start a thread for the 2014 ATL hurricane season.
If there is a chance of at least a weak EN or warm neutral next year then we may have something to look forward in E. Pacific...
Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.
I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.
There's Raymond, 110 kts.
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.
I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.
There's Raymond, 110 kts.
Umm, Yellow Evan posted that on October 15 before Raymond became a major.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Spin wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Well, given that 18 storms, it is very surprising there has been 0 majors IMO.
I personally would have waited for December for this thread to be made. However, I understand people's frustrations.
There's Raymond, 110 kts.
Umm, Yellow Evan posted that on October 15 before Raymond became a major.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
I've seen a chart that showed that 2014 could be trending towards an event closer to El Niño. Does this mean we might see a season like 2012 happen next year? In my opinion, 2012 was relatively active, with 5 major hurricanes forming, and two of those, including the strongest, in a two-week span in July only.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
hurricanes1234 wrote:I've seen a chart that showed that 2014 could be trending towards an event closer to El Niño. Does this mean we might see a season like 2012 happen next year? In my opinion, 2012 was relatively active, with 5 major hurricanes forming, and two of those, including the strongest, in a two-week span in July only.
2012 was not a real El Nino. It's too early to say. Geez, can we get the SHEM started before thinking about 2014 PHS?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
hurricanes1234 wrote:The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I could see anywhere from 1983-style active to dead. I agree, I think it will be somewhere in the middle and we'll have an up and down season just like the past 2 years. Same BCP landfall trend that has been present the past 2 to 3 years.
I'm going with 17-7-4.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I could see anywhere from 1983-style active to dead. I agree, I think it will be somewhere in the middle and we'll have an up and down season just like the past 2 years. Same BCP landfall trend that has been present the past 2 to 3 years.
I'm going with 17-7-4.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I'd probably go for 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. I think our strongest storm will be a Category 4 hurricane.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
hurricanes1234 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:The latest ENSO update showed that the Niño 4 is now at warm neutral, the first time in 7 months. It is at +0.1°C. Even though it's a bit early, I am really starting to think next year's EPAC season will be moderately active to active, especially if an El Niño develops. With that, we might see a few major hurricanes. Let's see what happens from here, but I am sticking with a possible El Niño or at least warm neutral for EPAC by May 2014.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I could see anywhere from 1983-style active to dead. I agree, I think it will be somewhere in the middle and we'll have an up and down season just like the past 2 years. Same BCP landfall trend that has been present the past 2 to 3 years.
I'm going with 17-7-4.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I'd probably go for 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. I think our strongest storm will be a Category 4 hurricane.
Reasonable, but in case this upcoming possible El Nino pulls a 2012, Ill be a little more conservative. Even some El Nino EPAC year struggle somewhat to get storms (though they are often stronger), such as 2002 and 2004.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Quality over quantity is always better here! Much like 2011, although that wasn't an El Niño. 11 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes occurred that year. That was amazing.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Latest update has Niño down to 0.0, purely neutral. However, they are saying that the chances of an El Niño are increasing. My updated numbers for the season are as follows:
16-19 named storms
8-11 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes
I will give another update on my numbers in January, and one each month thereafter, until June.
THIS POST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH! IT IS JUST MY AMATEUR OPINION AND MAY OR MAY NOT BE ACCURATE!
16-19 named storms
8-11 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes
I will give another update on my numbers in January, and one each month thereafter, until June.
THIS POST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH! IT IS JUST MY AMATEUR OPINION AND MAY OR MAY NOT BE ACCURATE!
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2014 EPAC Season
My 2014 EPAC numbers:
19/10/5
IMO,the EPAC will be more active because ENSO will be in a favorable status for plenty of activity to take place.
19/10/5
IMO,the EPAC will be more active because ENSO will be in a favorable status for plenty of activity to take place.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Dougiefresh, Emmett_Brown, galvbay, Jr0d, NDG, pepeavilenho, Wampadawg and 93 guests