Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Havent had time to look at models, what are they saying and what do you think will happen. Last I checked of the forecast, temps were expected in the 50s this weekend.

End of this week is relaxation period and transition for the atmosphere. 500mb ridge is moving south off the west coast and it will strengthen. Most models gives us rain and 30s/40s this weekend rising after the system. After that the ridge is expected to grow stronger and start to control the pattern again. EPS control and ensembles suggest lower heights over the Red River valley likely depicting a major winter storm crossing the southern plains followed by a full latitude trough from Canada to Mexico

[Texas Snowman]

Ummmm, Portastorm....

@breakingweather: Trace of snow reported at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Texas. 1st time trace of snow ever occurred on Dec. 8.

[Rgv20]

JMA 500mb Pattern is close to the ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Means...In my opinion it looks like Texas might get a healthy Arctic Shot before the Christmas Holiday.



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[joshskeety]

That Eagle/Detroit game was nuts to watch... Didn't like the outcome, but oh well.. Means Cowboys need to step it up tomorrow..

Hopefully the weather in Chitown will be clear enough and no snow.. I know it will be cold, but I think they had more than enough ice/cold time down here to get em accustom to it..

[ludosc]

I can see I-30 near Montgomery from my house and I swear nobody's moved an inch going eastbound for about two hours now.

also i think Fort Worth PD is starting to get annoyed at people

Fort Worth Police ‏@fortworthpd 43m
*TRAFFIC UPDATE*
ok seriously, as of right now, best bet is to stay off I20 & I30 both east & west bound any where near Fort Worth

[TheProfessor]

That Eagle/Detroit game was nuts to watch... Didn't like the outcome, but oh well.. Means Cowboys need to step it up tomorrow..

Hopefully the weather in Chitown will be clear enough and no snow.. I know it will be cold, but I think they had more than enough ice/cold time down here to get em accustom to it..

As long as the Cowboys win tomorrow than its a good thing the Eagles won because that would put the Cowboys ahead of the Lions. Anyways last time I looked it looked like the low for Chicago was 7 degrees. That would be a cold game.

[Ntxw]

Lastly, Dallas and Richardson closes schools tomorrow. Only two major districts that I see that will open is Garland and Rockwall.

[gboudx]

Rockwall almost always waits.

Edit: they updated.

Based on current road conditions, school is expected to open on time on Monday, December 9. The district will review weather and road conditions through the night. If any changes occur, the district will notify parents and post on our website, Facebook, and Twitter by 6:00 a.m.

[Portastorm]

Ummmm, Portastorm....

@breakingweather: Trace of snow reported at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Texas. 1st time trace of snow ever occurred on Dec. 8.

I'm glad you brought this up. I was waiting for someone to mention it. I saw some of the reports last night on Twitter about some snow falling in town but I certainly never saw it. And you know that I -- of all people -- would be looking out the window every three seconds if there were reports of flurries around. Allegedly some snow fell briefly in the northern part of the city. To say a trace fell is really, really pushing it.

[BigB0882]

Does anyone on here follow Ryan Maue on Twitter? He posted some monthly height anomalies but I have no idea how to interpret them. It shows positive height anomalies across most of the country. Does that mean higher pressures which means more cold?

[Meteorcane]

Does anyone on here follow Ryan Maue on Twitter? He posted some monthly height anomalies but I have no idea how to interpret them. It shows positive height anomalies across most of the country. Does that mean higher pressures which means more cold?

It would mean the opposite (assuming he was plotting 500 mb height anomalies), higher heights correspond to higher mean column temperature (technically virtual temperature)

[BigB0882]

Well then, it looks to be quite warm over the next month according to the models he posted.

[South Texas Storms]

Ummmm, Portastorm....

@breakingweather: Trace of snow reported at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Texas. 1st time trace of snow ever occurred on Dec. 8.

I'm glad you brought this up. I was waiting for someone to mention it. I saw some of the reports last night on Twitter about some snow falling in town but I certainly never saw it. And you know that I -- of all people -- would be looking out the window every three seconds if there were reports of flurries around. Allegedly some snow fell briefly in the northern part of the city. To say a trace fell is really, really pushing it.

Here is more info. on the trace of snow at KAUS:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
625 PM CST SUN DEC 08 2013

...RECORD SNOWFALL FOR AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE WAS AT 28 DEGREES WITH LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING. AT 1159 PM...LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY MIXED
WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL
OCCURRED. AT 1017 AM...LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WERE SEEN BY THE
OBSERVERS AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM AIRPORT. THE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES
ONLY LASTED FOR 27 MINUTES AND AGAIN NO ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED.

A TRACE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE ENTERED AS PART OF THE CLIMATE
RECORDS SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TIME A TRACE OF SNOWFALL HAS EVER
OCCURRED ON THE 8TH OF DECEMBER.

OF INTEREST...THE HIGHEST DAILY SNOWFALL AMOUNT FOR DECEMBER WAS 0.6
INCHES WHICH FELL ON DECEMBER 31ST 1946. SNOWFALL HAS NEVER BEEN
RECORDED FOR DECEMBER 25TH AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM.

[BigB0882]

They are entering a trace of snowfall in the record books even though there was no trace of snowfall simply because it has never happened on that date before? That is...odd.

[Portastorm]

Does anyone on here follow Ryan Maue on Twitter? He posted some monthly height anomalies but I have no idea how to interpret them. It shows positive height anomalies across most of the country. Does that mean higher pressures which means more cold?

If I'm not mistaken, what he tweeted about was the European weeklies which extend into early January. And yes, the weeklies looked warm across much of the USA but did have a persistent cutoff low in the desert Southwest. As much as I appreciate the Euro, I do believe the weeklies have shown volatility from week to week and have not been real consistent.

Still think our next major-league cold shot is coming to Texas close to Christmas as others here have opined. And even until then we won't exactly be blow-torching it around here. Temps will probably be average to slightly below average.

[texas1836]

Does anyone on here follow Ryan Maue on Twitter? He posted some monthly height anomalies but I have no idea how to interpret them. It shows positive height anomalies across most of the country. Does that mean higher pressures which means more cold?

If I'm not mistaken, what he tweeted about was the European weeklies which extend into early January. And yes, the weeklies looked warm across much of the USA but did have a persistent cutoff low in the desert Southwest. As much as I appreciate the Euro, I do believe the weeklies have shown volatility from week to week and have not been real consistent.

Still think our next major-league cold shot is coming to Texas close to Christmas as others here have opined. And even until then we won't exactly be blow-torching it around here. Temps will probably be average to slightly below average.

It seems the earlier forecasts from late Summer (Being warm for Fall) have been blown apart with these last 2 arctic fronts. I think this Winter is an anything goes Winter. I would like to see some low records broken, but we'll have to see what that Polar Vortex throws at us.

[TexasStorm]

Larry Cosgrove just tweeted that another major arctic blast is coming 13th-16th with more precip

GFS brings down a freezing line to the Red River counties on the 15th but that is about it until around Christmas time.

[Portastorm]

Larry Cosgrove just tweeted that another major arctic blast is coming 13th-16th with more precip

GFS brings down a freezing line to the Red River counties on the 15th but that is about it until around Christmas time.

Point of clarification: what Mr. Cosgrove said was that a major storm system would be cutting across the nation ... a rainmaker for Texas but winter weather further north. After this system makes its journey across the CONUS, it would help usher in a pattern change bringing us back to what we just experienced. Or perhaps colder.

[wxman57]

Well then, it looks to be quite warm over the next month according to the models he posted.

Thanks, that woke me up. Don't see anything I'd call warm, though. Peeking at the long-range GFS, I see an interesting deep south storm system around the 20-22 of Dec. Maybe some snow for the SE U.S. if it verifies. Don't see much for Texas but continued cold air infiltrations across the state. Nothing too major. Perhaps another widespread freeze the 21st-22nd.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: stratospheric warming event starting in Asia. Precursor to blocking in longer term