Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ah, love the sound of SSW and Full latitude

[weatherdude1108]

Ummmm, Portastorm....

@breakingweather: Trace of snow reported at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Texas. 1st time trace of snow ever occurred on Dec. 8.

I'm glad you brought this up. I was waiting for someone to mention it. I saw some of the reports last night on Twitter about some snow falling in town but I certainly never saw it. And you know that I -- of all people -- would be looking out the window every three seconds if there were reports of flurries around. Allegedly some snow fell briefly in the northern part of the city. To say a trace fell is really, really pushing it.

I took out the trash last night and did NOT see any snow. It was foggy with ice forming on the trash/recycle bins. I'm jealous!

[dhweather]

Well, that SSW last year didn't work out so well for us.

[wxman57]

That temperature map you posted valid 12Z the 23rd looks off, Portastorm. No way the 2m temps are forecast to be near zero across south Louisiana. And note that the 10F line goes through north Houston (IAH). I plotted the meteogram using that same 12Z GFS data and got 24 degrees for 12Z on the 23rd, not 10 degrees.

Wouldn't "apparent" temperature refer to wind chill?

That must be it, a wind chill graphic. At 24F, it would take about a 20 mph wind to produce a 10F wind chill. Not looking forward to it...

[Tireman4]

That temperature map you posted valid 12Z the 23rd looks off, Portastorm. No way the 2m temps are forecast to be near zero across south Louisiana. And note that the 10F line goes through north Houston (IAH). I plotted the meteogram using that same 12Z GFS data and got 24 degrees for 12Z on the 23rd, not 10 degrees.

Wouldn't "apparent" temperature refer to wind chill?

That must be it, a wind chill graphic. At 24F, it would take about a 20 mph wind to produce a 10F wind chill. Not looking forward to it...

Academy has some nice biking apparel for those who want to ride in sub 30 degree weather.

[BigB0882]

I would love for the GFS to be right. It is still a ways out to take it verbatim but the GFS performed really well with this last front! I am going to NYC on the 23rd so I would be absolutely thrilled to have my first ever white Christmas. Maybe this will give us the chance.

[wxman57]

Academy has some nice biking apparel for those who want to ride in sub 30 degree weather.

My selection of winter cycling clothing is quite vast. I could easily bike in sub-30 degree weather (and I have in the past). It's not much fun when I have so many layers on that I can hardly move, though. And it's hard to breathe through a neoprene face mask without fogging up my glasses.

I've been contemplating when the next 80-degree day in Houston will be. Don't see it in December. Maybe 3rd week of January. Might not be until March...

[Texas Snowman]

Well, that SSW last year didn't work out so well for us.

I'm pretty sure the last 14 days have proven that this isn't last winter.

[Tireman4]

Academy has some nice biking apparel for those who want to ride in sub 30 degree weather.

My selection of winter cycling clothing is quite vast. I could easily bike in sub-30 degree weather (and I have in the past). It's not much fun when I have so many layers on that I can hardly move, though. And it's hard to breathe through a neoprene face mask without fogging up my glasses.

I've been contemplating when the next 80-degree day in Houston will be. Don't see it in December. Maybe 3rd week of January. Might not be until March...

Or April.....ha ha ha. We will have our season. Oh my goodness.

[gpsnowman]

I found the perfect riding outfit for our bike riding weatherman from Houston.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=i ... 3677923504

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any reports of drizzle where the returns are showing up on radar? (From Waco down to east Austin)
Anyone keeping an eye on this as it pushes northeastward?

[wxman57]

I found the perfect riding outfit for our bike riding weatherman from Houston.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=i ... 3677923504

That's my Easter outfit.

Just light drizzle between Houston and Austin today. A little freezing drizzle across San Angelo east to near Waco, though.

[Rgv20]

I kind of miss 80 degree temperatures...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
236 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

...LOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.COLD WIND CHILL EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FEEL COOLER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

TXZ248>257-100445-
/O.NEW.KBRO.WC.Y.0002.131210T0900Z-131210T1500Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
236 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES.

* TIMING...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...PERSONS AND ANIMALS THAT ARE NOT PROTECTED BY THE LOW
WIND CHILLS CAN BE SUBJECT TO HYPOTHERMIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 30 OR LOWER FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS FOR THE RIO GRAND VALLEY
AND 25 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND NORTHERN RANCH LANDS...WITH WINDS OF 10 MPH OR GREATER.

&&

$$

[dhweather]

Well, that SSW last year didn't work out so well for us.

I'm pretty sure the last 14 days have proven that this isn't last winter.

We haven't even gotten to this Winter yet, still 12 days away! That's the concerning part.

Is it an anomaly or a trend? The million dollar question. If the GFS verifies for Christmas, then its likely a trend. In turn, we might see a brutal stretch through February. And as wxman57 says (and I completely agree) if it's THAT cold, it BETTER snow! No more stinking ice storms, SNOW. Now back to Christmas - if the core of the cold air goes to the midwest, as the GFS indicates, that will be more in line with what happened last year. The midwest and northeast would get hammered, we might get 1-2 freezing nights out of it.


So what does everyone think? Will it in fact turn out to be a brutal winter (as forecast by the farmer's almanac) or a mild winder (as forecast by NOAA).

[Texas Snowman]

School will be out tomorrow - again - in most Grayson County school districts. Denison, Sherman, Pottsboro, etc. have already pulled the plug on classes on Tuesday. Roads have improved a little today, not enough however.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like a continued trend of below normal/normal range of temperatures in the foreseeable future for here. I'm not complaining! We have our fair share of at least nine months of "Summer" around here. I used to work with someone who said Texas has two seasons:

1) Summer, and
2) Cooler.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST SKIES ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT
FOG AND LIGHT PCPN. THE LIGHT FOG/LIGHT PCPN WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LIGHT PCPN WILL END BEFORE SFC TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER FREEZE
OVERNIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF USHERS IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. CAA WILL
HELP OFFSET THE SUNSHINE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
FREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A MINOR WARM-UP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST. STILL A GOOD 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER FREEZE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN TROF OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON
FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SECOND...TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY.
THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL FINALLY BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BEFORE THE FROPA.

[vbhoutex]

Well, that SSW last year didn't work out so well for us.

I'm pretty sure the last 14 days have proven that this isn't last winter.

We haven't even gotten to this Winter yet, still 12 days away! That's the concerning part.

Is it an anomaly or a trend? The million dollar question. If the GFS verifies for Christmas, then its likely a trend. In turn, we might see a brutal stretch through February. And as wxman57 says (and I completely agree) if it's THAT cold, it BETTER snow! No more stinking ice storms, SNOW. Now back to Christmas - if the core of the cold air goes to the midwest, as the GFS indicates, that will be more in line with what happened last year. The midwest and northeast would get hammered, we might get 1-2 freezing nights out of it.


So what does everyone think? Will it in fact turn out to be a brutal winter (as forecast by the farmer's almanac) or a mild winder (as forecast by NOAA).

I'm not sure about brutal(truly brutal for our area-(it is already brutal imo when it is raining and in the 30s)), but almost everything I have read, looked at, and mets I have talked to seem to be leaning towards what I will call, at a minimum, a REAL Winter as opposed to Nowinter which we had last year.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Portastorm,

Regarding that snowfall map you posted I know its just for entertainment purposes this far out but its amazing how south LA gets left out of everything cold. Shows snow north and west of us, then north, west, and east of us all along the gulf coast with se LA left out in the dry bullseye. What a load of crap But as wxman said let's wait til tomorrow and it will show the gulf coast in the 70's

[Portastorm]

Portastorm,

Regarding that snowfall map you posted I know its just for entertainment purposes this far out but its amazing how south LA gets left out of everything cold. Shows snow north and west of us, then north, west, and east of us all along the gulf coast with se LA left out in the dry bullseye. What a load of crap But as wxman said let's wait til tomorrow and it will show the gulf coast in the 70's

Yeah, Mike don't get too worked up over it. I honestly do not ever take those maps verbatim that far out. What I would suggest the "takeaway" is ... would be that another major cold blast *may* be coming around Christmas. Details to be worked out. How's that?!

[Portastorm]

Well, that SSW last year didn't work out so well for us.

I'm pretty sure the last 14 days have proven that this isn't last winter.

We haven't even gotten to this Winter yet, still 12 days away! That's the concerning part.

Is it an anomaly or a trend? The million dollar question. If the GFS verifies for Christmas, then its likely a trend. In turn, we might see a brutal stretch through February. And as wxman57 says (and I completely agree) if it's THAT cold, it BETTER snow! No more stinking ice storms, SNOW. Now back to Christmas - if the core of the cold air goes to the midwest, as the GFS indicates, that will be more in line with what happened last year. The midwest and northeast would get hammered, we might get 1-2 freezing nights out of it.


So what does everyone think? Will it in fact turn out to be a brutal winter (as forecast by the farmer's almanac) or a mild winder (as forecast by NOAA).

As Ntxw and I have been saying ... watch the Pacific and it's signals -- WPO, EPO, and North Pacific SST anomalies. The Pacific signals are completely overwhelming the pattern right now as both the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are positive and that generally would warm much of the CONUS. But that excessive warm pool in the NE Pacific is helping foster ridging which is then connecting over the pole to further ridging and creating a pipeline for Grey Goose vodka cold down our way.

And I see a variable winter. I do think this pattern relaxes at some point (Jan or Feb) and we moderate. But between now and early January I expect to see one or two major cold blasts for Texas.