once the second Ridge reloads, it's show time

[John]

Not quite sure what to make of all the Model spaghetti today, the best scenario I can come up with is Guidance is picking up some weakness in the ridge caused by the remnants of Henri, this would explain the abrupt shift in the ECMWF. It still looks to me as if Isabel is following what's left of the ULL to her West, and since she is heading slightly South of due West this tells me there is still plenty of strong Ridging around. Not sure Im buying into any weakness just yet, it's best to wait until we get some synoptic surveillance from the NOAA JET digested into the Guidance. Again if there is a slight weakness my thinking is she may indeed turn briefly but once the second Ridge reloads all bets are off. The last few images from the High Res IR imagery suggests Isabel has had a motion toward the WSW, although this does not indicate her overall motion, a few more frames will tell the story. Still thinking Central FL.
John

[Steve H.]

Ya know John, I've been reading other posts from boards such as WW where they're hanging onto the models such as the EC, which may correct but you can't rely on the runs right now. Most are ignoring the strength of the ridge in their comments. Yes it may weaken a bit, but will build back in. I don't want this coming near me, but I'm right at 28N/80W and concerned. I hear about the things tht may weaken the ridge, but I see no evidence of it, and the NHC says its moving at 280!!! gimme a break. 270 dead on with a wobble to the SW at one point. They are going to see things change when they re-initialize their data. I know its way out there yet, but the ridge is strong and its continuing west. I'm starting to get that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. They are talking on other sites about this hitting Jersey....I just don't see that. When this is going NW i'll feel better. but if it doesn't do it before wednesday look out. Cheers!! (i Think.)

[Stormsfury]

Something just occurred to me. With a high progged to be THAT strong, wouldn't that nose down the east side of the Appalachians? I think so. Talk about the wedging scenario to take place. The solution being offered tonight by the ECMWF doesn't seem as plausible IMO, plus it goes against climatology so to speak. I'm NOT saying that is isn't right, it doesn't seem plausible. Still plenty of time to watch.

SF

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you John. This is a Florida IMHO. Saw the WSW shift this afternoon in the QScat and later in IR loops and the NHC 11 p.m. confirmed it. Don't expect a permanent SW trend and I do not believe Henri's remains or the weak trof will influence Isabel to make much of a N or NNE turn.

[John]

Again I am not sure what your reading from other message boards since I really don't like speaking out of the box, I only post here and sometimes at the gopbi board. Im sure your going to see all kinds of people reacting to every twitch each Model makes. The important thing here to remember is 1 there is a strong Ridge N of the Hurricane, or it would not be heading WSW. 2 Guidance is only as good as the material that is humanly impute into it, since right now nobody knows what the hell is going on how would one expect Guidance to know. IMO if there was any better time to bail out on the Models this would be it since tonight I truly believe they are offering nothing because Isabel is on a heading WSW. My feeling on Isabel is what I have been saying the last three day's, she is likely to continue heading toward the West, if there is a weakness she will follow it briefly, Im thinking she should be at a beam East of WPB as the Ridge reloads.
John

[CocoaBill]

Better "material" (data) will be input to the models after the recon goes in tomorrow. Then the models will be able to initialize from actual raw data and go from there.

[JetMaxx]

I agree with you John....the sheer intensity of Isabel will reinforce the ridge to her north.....why I'm still forecasting eventual landfall in the West Palm Beach/ Jupiter/ Stuart area.

[Josephine96]

Jet Maxx, I'm going a little bit further up the coast then you are.. I say landfall somewhere between Cocoa Beach/Melbourne maybe even Titusville by the Space Coast..

[Anonymous]

why I'm still forecasting eventual landfall in the West Palm Beach.

thats me

[Toni - 574]

Have to say that I agree that we are just going to have to wait on recon to get in there and give some good hard core info. I will trust the models a little more when that happens. Geez, what did we do before we had models to depend on? Stand back an look! Use our heads! The best we can do right now is take that observation and try to make some sense out of it. I really hope that this thing does turn(OTS)but I just don't see anything at this point that can get the job done. I am at 28N/82 and I am starting to get a little concerned.


Toni :o

[bev1]

I will be really glad when we do get some recon tomorrow so we can have a better idea of what is going on with Isabel.

[AussieMark]

I think landfall would happen along the coast Palm Beach, Florida northward to Charleston, South Carolina.

[ColdFront77]

Not quite sure what to make of all the Model spaghetti today, the best scenario I can come up with is Guidance is picking up some weakness in the ridge caused by the remnants of Henri, this would explain the abrupt shift in the ECMWF. It still looks to me as if Isabel is following what's left of the ULL to her West, and since she is heading slightly South of due West this tells me there is still plenty of strong Ridging around. Not sure Im buying into any weakness just yet, it's best to wait until we get some synoptic surveillance from the NOAA JET digested into the Guidance. Again if there is a slight weakness my thinking is she may indeed turn briefly but once the second Ridge reloads all bets are off. The last few images from the High Res IR imagery suggests Isabel has had a motion toward the WSW, although this does not indicate her overall motion, a few more frames will tell the story. Still thinking Central FL.
John

I agree wholeheartedly. The NOAA Jet and Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data will be extremely important from this point forward.

The dramatic changes in the model guidance, that's right guidance today and tonight doesn't make any sense, in my opinion... and it looks like many opinions here.

It very well indeed is picking the remnant of Henri off the mid-Atlantic coast which doesn't seem plausible with that system not being to strong and expected to move out, anyway.

The ridge is expected to build and that would obviously continue Isabel on a mainly westward track.