Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899... lets start talking about it.

Austin, Texas: −1 °F (−18 °C)
Dallas, Texas: −8 °F (−22 °C)(Feb 12 1899 was the coldest temperature reading in Dallas history by six degrees in more than 115 years of weather records)
San Antonio, Texas: +4 °F (−15°C)

[newtotex]

Joe B's tweet

ECWMF "control" run takes Siberian system over pole then has it over N Plains by 22cnd. If right would rival 89,83


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbO1qyVCUAAZ1ww.jpg

This is probably a dumb/obvious question. But if this were to verify, what kind of temperatures would we be looking at in North Texas?

Single Digits... could see below zero readings like 89 blast.

That's insane. I just realized I won't be here for that.
What would the temps be like in coastal Alabama?

[Portastorm]

A special note to anyone posting model graphics from WeatherBell. Such posting of images violates their terms and conditions:

3. Use of Service. Subscriber agrees that the Site and its services are furnished and shall be used solely for Subscriber's personal, business or institutional use, and is subject to our Acceptable Use Policy. Subscriber shall not have the right to directly or indirectly transmit, broadcast, redistribute, forward or deliver the Products or services or any part of the data, information, images or other products which constitute the Site, Products and/or services to any other person or entity, in any format (including, but not limited to framing, deep liking or embedding), or by any means ("Commercial Use")...

You can discuss what you saw in their models but you cannot post graphics from their premium or commercial site here.

Yeah gang ... this is quite serious. We need to abide by all applicable rules, regulations, and laws here. Yes, Weatherbell has some great stuff and we're all excited about the possibilities down the road, but please stop yourself before posting a graphic and make sure it's ok to do.

If we hear from Ryan Maue or JB, I'd rather it was something related to weather and not the "cease and desist" message.

Thanks everyone!

[Portastorm]

Portastorm... I'm going to Lake Louise this weekend. I'll report from up there how much Grey Goose it takes to stay warm in sub zero weather.

By the way, thanks for the good convo on twitter.

Sounds good. The PWC appreciates the "field work" you'll be conducting.

If you find a decent football coach up there, let me know.

[utweather]

That 500 MB is insane, Portastorm has that dream map on photoshop somewhere in his hard drive. Look at the connection to Siberia. How do temps look in Siberia around this time?

Looking at the reports from wunderground: -48F is the lowest. Not terribly cold for Siberia. These model maps are incredible, I've looked at hundreds over the years watching these arctic outbreaks and haven't seen many to compare. If I remember early 2011 had some really insane forecasts for temps in the 10-15 day range, and we ended up getting to 22 right on the coast during that freeze.

I've watched the models since the mid to late 90's as well and they always forecast the end of the world a few times each winter, its fun and exciting to look out 10 days but the bark has been alot worse than the bite a vast majority of the time. Whats intriguing this time is being so close to winter solstice. Short days - no modification. So I would believe this is the chance if its gonna happen.

[dhweather]

I've only posted what they have tweeted, which is a release to the general public.

[wxman57]

I've only posted what they have tweeted, which is a release to the general public.

I'm not sure about the tweeted images. I'd think that since JB and Ryan Maue posted them to the public that retweeting or posting them would be OK, but I'm not sure. I saw a few of the model graphics were direct links to the weatherbell site (not yours).

PS: I contacted WeatherBell asking about the posting of previously-tweeted images.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So we are 10 days out from the onset of this event in Texas, and we've had 3-4 days of consistent model runs regarding this event.

I know the margin of error is still large, but we are on to something. Get me to 192 hours and if this is still full bore Commrade Vodka Cold, then I'll go all in.

[dhweather]

So we are 10 days out from the onset of this event in Texas, and we've had 3-4 days of consistent model runs regarding this event.

I know the margin of error is still large, but we are on to something. Get me to 192 hours and if this is still full bore Commrade Vodka Cold, then I'll go all in.

Yep, if its still looking like this come Monday, well, maybe it's time to really stock up on firewood.

[Portastorm]

Once again, the fine men and women who work at NWSFO Fort Worth are setting the bar for best forecast discussions and tuning in to both short term and long term issues.

This is from this afternoon's AFD:

.LONG RANGE FORECAST...
...FOR THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...
...THURSDAY DEC 19 THROUGH MONDAY DEC 23...

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THAT COULD START JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF
THE LATEST 42-MEMBER NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE (NAEFS) SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOWER END OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT /TWO
TO THREE DAY/ PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER
END OF THE IMPACTS SUGGEST A 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.

BASED ON THE LAST 3-4 RUNS OF THE NAEFS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
DEC 19 OR DEC 20. THE FORECAST 500 MB PATTERN AND FORECAST MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA STRONGLY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
PLUNGING AIRMASS AT LEAST AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED IN
TEXAS ON DEC 5-6. THIS MORNINGS /12Z/ DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL COLD SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY DEC 19 OR FRIDAY DEC 20. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEC 21-22.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE IS MUCH MORE
PROBLEMATIC AND A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE NAEFS...WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY 42 INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS USING TWO SEPARATE PHYSICS
PACKAGES...SHOWS A HUGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THAT HUGE RANGE
IS TYPICAL WITH ANY STRONG SYSTEMS IN THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING CHANCES THAT VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE PERIOD DEC 20-23...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

09/PATRICK

[Tireman4]

Once again, the fine men and women who work at NWSFO Fort Worth are setting the bar for best forecast discussions and tuning in to both short term and long term issues.

This is from this afternoon's AFD:

.LONG RANGE FORECAST...
...FOR THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...
...THURSDAY DEC 19 THROUGH MONDAY DEC 23...

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THAT COULD START JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF
THE LATEST 42-MEMBER NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE (NAEFS) SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOWER END OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT /TWO
TO THREE DAY/ PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER
END OF THE IMPACTS SUGGEST A 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.

BASED ON THE LAST 3-4 RUNS OF THE NAEFS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
DEC 19 OR DEC 20. THE FORECAST 500 MB PATTERN AND FORECAST MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA STRONGLY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
PLUNGING AIRMASS AT LEAST AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED IN
TEXAS ON DEC 5-6. THIS MORNINGS /12Z/ DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL COLD SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY DEC 19 OR FRIDAY DEC 20. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEC 21-22.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE IS MUCH MORE
PROBLEMATIC AND A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE NAEFS...WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY 42 INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS USING TWO SEPARATE PHYSICS
PACKAGES...SHOWS A HUGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THAT HUGE RANGE
IS TYPICAL WITH ANY STRONG SYSTEMS IN THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING CHANCES THAT VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE PERIOD DEC 20-23...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

09/PATRICK

I would say ( and I am not a met but a historian) that a serious "bear" watch is in order.

[TwisterFanatic]

What in the world am I seeing.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Great write up Patrick!

[Tireman4]

Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899... lets start talking about it.

Austin, Texas: −1 °F (−18 °C)
Dallas, Texas: −8 °F (−22 °C)(Feb 12 1899 was the coldest temperature reading in Dallas history by six degrees in more than 115 years of weather records)
San Antonio, Texas: +4 °F (−15°C)

Houston, Texas: +6 F (February 12 and 13, 1899)

[iorange55]

Steve McCauley's latest Facebook post...

Out-of-control rumors continue to fly about another arctic front and ice storm headed our way just before Chrismas. And although long-range data continue to point to a fairly significant cold snap, there is not much in the data that even remotely resembles the kind of storm we just came through, so hopefully that will continue to be the case. I'll run the SM on it, and see what pops up.

Hmmm.

[Portastorm]

Steve McCauley's latest Facebook post...

Out-of-control rumors continue to fly about another arctic front and ice storm headed our way just before Chrismas. And although long-range data continue to point to a fairly significant cold snap, there is not much in the data that even remotely resembles the kind of storm we just came through, so hopefully that will continue to be the case. I'll run the SM on it, and see what pops up.

Hmmm.

That's rather shocking ... how he could be so out-of-the-loop here. Wow.

Hey Steve, you might want to look at ... oh I don't know ... maybe the GFS and Euro ensembles for the last several cycles, or the GFS or Euro operational runs, or the Canadian ensembles/op, or the teleconnections, or the SSTs in the NE Pacific, or ....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Steve McCauley's latest Facebook post...

Out-of-control rumors continue to fly about another arctic front and ice storm headed our way just before Chrismas. And although long-range data continue to point to a fairly significant cold snap, there is not much in the data that even remotely resembles the kind of storm we just came through, so hopefully that will continue to be the case. I'll run the SM on it, and see what pops up.

Hmmm.

He's referring to precip, not temps. This one will be colder simply due to climatology this time of the year.

Did anyone see the 850mb temps that Maue posted on twitter?

[iorange55]

Steve McCauley's latest Facebook post...

Out-of-control rumors continue to fly about another arctic front and ice storm headed our way just before Chrismas. And although long-range data continue to point to a fairly significant cold snap, there is not much in the data that even remotely resembles the kind of storm we just came through, so hopefully that will continue to be the case. I'll run the SM on it, and see what pops up.

He's referring to precip, not temps. This one will be colder simply due to climatology this time of the year.

Did anyone see the 850mb temps that Maue posted on twitter?

I thought he was as well. However, he also posted this in response to a comment asking about the potential arctic event..

"Fortunately it doesn't look anywhere near as intense as what we just came throguh, so not too worried at this stage in the game. I'll run the SM on it and see what happens."


Perhaps, he's just busy with school right now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, he clearly hasn't paid attention to any of our major models.

[Portastorm]

Once again the 18z op GFS seems to have a mind of its own about the Christmas period, showing some cold but nothing nearly like the 12z. And actually the 0z and 6z GFS were cold but nothing exceptional. Either it's really on to something or ... it's really out to lunch.