Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

As per discussion above, will not post the Weatherbell graphic that Joe B just tweeted.

But it's pretty nasty looking.

"@BigJoeBastardi - Modeling agreeing more on Weatherbell.coms idea of a "dreadful" cold shot Christmas week. Belly of US gets it first."

[Texas Snowman]

Amarillo NWS AFD:

"DON`T GET USED TO THE MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR TOO LONG. LOOKING
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL TURN MUCH
COLDER BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BLAST
ACROSS THE AREA."

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Thank God I am old ( 58) When I see what I saw in past cold outbreaks setting up,I tell clients. ITS NOT VODOO IF ITS HAPPENING

@BigJoeBastardi: I believe we will find people starting to come around to how severe this could be Dec 20-27 for the US.. Market still likely behind

[Cyclenall]

So what page had the best summary for the Ice Storm in Texas?

I would have reported a few more times during the evening, but I experienced some food poisoning! Yuck!

Food poisoning during an ice storm, nice combo there.

I'm not sure about the tweeted images. I'd think that since JB and Ryan Maue posted them to the public that retweeting or posting them would be OK, but I'm not sure. I saw a few of the model graphics were direct links to the weatherbell site (not yours).

PS: I contacted WeatherBell asking about the posting of previously-tweeted images.

This has been the practice since the start of social media and now all of a sudden your wondering if its ok? If a non-paying user can find the image on an employee's social media feed, its obviously fine for public use. I don't feel like looking up all these guys twitter feeds for every little image.

As per discussion above, will not post the Weatherbell graphic that Joe B just tweeted.

If it's tweeted from WeatherBell employees, it's a public release so its fine, its been done for many years on here so what's the problem?

[richtrav]

Once again the 18z op GFS seems to have a mind of its own about the Christmas period, showing some cold but nothing nearly like the 12z. And actually the 0z and 6z GFS were cold but nothing exceptional. Either it's really on to something or ... it's really out to lunch.

The 18z temps look more in line with reality given the high pressure and cold in the source region, which have stayed fairly close in both runs. Highest pressure coming into the US is around 1040mb on both runs. The euro scares me more but if I had a nickel every time I've heard '83 or '89 used around here over the years I'd, umm, well, I'd have a LOT of nickels.

[richtrav]

Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899... lets start talking about it.

Austin, Texas: −1 °F (−18 °C)
Dallas, Texas: −8 °F (−22 °C)(Feb 12 1899 was the coldest temperature reading in Dallas history by six degrees in more than 115 years of weather records)
San Antonio, Texas: +4 °F (−15°C)

No, let's not, it's the equivalent of the F-word. By the way Dallas got down to -10 F in 1899, the weather station office was in Ft Worth and it "only" recorded -8. In case you doubt:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ntxw]

We don't even need models to tell us severe cold was coming. this is all you need to see. I'm pretty sure it's not hard to find on this map.



Coldest December since 2000, we're going to beat that. Next in line would be 1989.

[katheria]

where did you find that?

thank you very much for posting it was really neat reading it

[Rgv20]

A bit more of eye candy! from left to right 12zECMWF, GFS, and CMC 8-10 day 500mb Height Anomalies.

[gboudx]

is this a weather geek version of Where's Waldo? What am I supposed to be seeing and then interpreting into severe cold?

[Ntxw]

And if you have not checked out the ensembles (yes even 18z GEFS) it is wxman57's worst nightmare. NE PAC ridge intensifies and reinforces itself supported by warm sst's just building and building. It is not something to take lightly of.

We have a nice relatively mild week next week, take the opportunity to prepare. Home depot is a good place to start

[ronyan]

:uarrow: is this a weather geek version of Where's Waldo? What am I supposed to be seeing and then interpreting into severe cold?

Correct it if I'm wrong but those very warm SSTs in the NE pacific just below Alaska are a big sign of cold coming (or building ridge).

[katheria]

yep already thinking about it, heating company coming tomorrow to check everything out called them this morning before work, not gonna take a chance

and trying to figure out whats the best to insulate the outside pipes, those foam covers dont work that well....(from experience)

one hint a friend in northern alaska told me , get a small light fixture, and set it up underneath your sink (anything on outside wall) with a 60-100watt bulb it will keep the pipes from freezing....

[Ntxw]

Once again, the fine men and women who work at NWSFO Fort Worth are setting the bar for best forecast discussions and tuning in to both short term and long term issues.

This is from this afternoon's AFD:

.LONG RANGE FORECAST...
...FOR THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...
...THURSDAY DEC 19 THROUGH MONDAY DEC 23...

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THAT COULD START JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF
THE LATEST 42-MEMBER NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE (NAEFS) SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOWER END OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT /TWO
TO THREE DAY/ PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER
END OF THE IMPACTS SUGGEST A 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.

BASED ON THE LAST 3-4 RUNS OF THE NAEFS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
DEC 19 OR DEC 20. THE FORECAST 500 MB PATTERN AND FORECAST MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA STRONGLY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD
PLUNGING AIRMASS AT LEAST AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED IN
TEXAS ON DEC 5-6. THIS MORNINGS /12Z/ DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL COLD SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY DEC 19 OR FRIDAY DEC 20. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEC 21-22.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE IS MUCH MORE
PROBLEMATIC AND A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE NAEFS...WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY 42 INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS USING TWO SEPARATE PHYSICS
PACKAGES...SHOWS A HUGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THAT HUGE RANGE
IS TYPICAL WITH ANY STRONG SYSTEMS IN THE 8 TO 12 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING CHANCES THAT VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE PERIOD DEC 20-23...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

09/PATRICK

Those of us who follow their discussions know that it is not often the NWS will talk about events beyond the forecasting period, for them to mention 20-25 degrees below average speaks volumes of the relative confidence they see in the pattern. Not something you see everyday.

[BigB0882]

A bit more of eye candy! from left to right 12zECMWF, GFS, and CMC 8-10 day 500mb Height Anomalies.

Am I seeing those correctly or does the CMC have the ridge placed a good bit further off of the East coast? If I am seeing that correctly, does that mean more cold moving further east than the last batch and than what the Euro and GFS would show?

[gboudx]

Am I seeing those correctly or does the CMC have the ridge placed a good bit further off of the East coast? If I am seeing that correctly, does that mean more cold moving further east than the last batch and than what the Euro and GFS would show?

We're visiting family in Lafitte for Xmas, so I request the cold to stop at a line from Morgan City to Houma, Gramercy to Hammond. This way you get the cold you want and I get a break. Deal?

[Wntrwthrguy]

This may be premature but looking ahead, if this were to verify with sub freezing temps for multiple days, what should be on the checklist of things to prepare around the house next week?

[MississippiWx]

Hi, all. Hope you guys in Texas are thawing out. It hasn't been too much warmer here in Mississippi! I'm already shivering from just looking at these models. The ECMWF/GFS seem to be in remarkable agreement on the 500mb pattern 10+ days out. This, in itself, is eye-opening. I'm always a bit pessimistic about major cold/major storm hype since models are always wishy-washy that far in advance, but this has too many signals to ignore. The intense blocking pattern shown by the ECMWF and the GFS in the long range looks favorable for the extreme cold to invade the majority of the country this time. Wow!

[northjaxpro]

Hi, all. Hope you guys in Texas are thawing out. It hasn't been too much warmer here in Mississippi! I'm already shivering from just looking at these models. The ECMWF/GFS seem to be in remarkable agreement on the 500mb pattern 10+ days out. This, in itself, is eye-opening. I'm always a bit pessimistic about major cold/major storm hype since models are always wishy-washy that far in advance, but this has too many signals to ignore. The intense blocking pattern shown by the ECMWF and the GFS in the long range looks favorable for the extreme cold to invade the majority of the country this time. Wow!

Absolutely. The latest runs look frightening in terms of a severe and frigid arctic outbreak to impact much of the U.S.A. the week of Christmas. Still have lots of time to follow this situation, but the fact the EURO and GFS are in good agreement 10 days or so out is very, very interesting. Interesting days ahead, especially for you guys in Texas and across the Plains leading into Christmas.

[Ntxw]

Something overlooked the past week. There is a snow pack across the conus, and not a shallow one either. Whatever Arctic blast comes through will not be modifying like we have seen the past few years. For this date it is the most extensive since 1997, beating 2009. Could even be more than even further back but data is not as great before 1997.